Higher Prices Drive PotashCorp's Net Income and Gross Margin To Record Levels
28 July 2005 - 9:00PM
PR Newswire (US)
Higher Prices Drive PotashCorp's Net Income and Gross Margin To
Record Levels Listed: TSX, NYSE Symbol: POT SASKATOON, SK, July 28
/PRNewswire/ -- Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.
(PotashCorp) today announced that higher second-quarter prices for
potash, phosphate and nitrogen products resulted in quarterly
records for both net income and gross margin. This is the third
consecutive quarter for record net income and the fourth
consecutive quarter for record gross margin. Net income of $164.2
million ($1.46 per diluted share) was up from $72.6 million ($0.67
per diluted share) in second quarter 2004, raising 2005 first-half
income to $295.5 million from $123.3 million in last year's same
period. Second-quarter net income would have been $0.13 per diluted
share higher, except for a non- cash accelerated expensing of stock
options granted during the quarter. Gross margin of $344.8 million
more than doubled the $170.7 million in the same quarter last year,
with second-quarter potash gross margin of $223.3 million alone
exceeding second-quarter 2004 gross margin performance for the
entire company. Cash flow from operating activities rose to $348.4
million from $182.8 million quarter over quarter. Equity
investments in Arab Potash Company (APC) and Sociedad Quimica y
Minera (SQM) combined to provide $13.4 million to second-quarter
income. Realized potash prices were up 49 percent quarter over
quarter and 13 percent from the first quarter of 2005. Ammonia and
urea prices increased by 34 percent and 42 percent respectively
quarter over quarter and 19 percent and 11 percent from the
trailing quarter. In phosphate, prices for solid fertilizer
products climbed 9 percent from last year's second quarter, while
liquid fertilizer and feed products showed 10 percent and 19
percent gains respectively. "These higher prices, especially in
potash, reflect tight world supply/demand fundamentals as
consumption continues to grow," said PotashCorp President and CEO
Bill Doyle. "While we had record-breaking potash sales volumes in
the first half of 2004, we have surpassed those volumes this year
putting us on track to make 2005 another record year for potash
sales volumes and earnings. We have an unmatched ability to bring
on idle potash capacity and we are reinvesting in our core business
at home and around the world to build on this advantage." Market
Conditions Tight supply/demand in potash has made product
availability the primary concern for many customers, reducing
Canadian producer inventories from their five-year average of
approximately 2 million tonnes, to a total of 1.1 million tonnes.
This spurred prices to unprecedented levels in offshore and North
American markets. Canpotex, the offshore marketing agency for
Saskatchewan producers, remains on pace for another record year,
reflecting strong global demand. World demand for phosphate
fertilizer grew as well, as an early summer fill and the potential
for higher prices led to increased second-quarter volumes. India
and Pakistan significantly increased their demand in the quarter
which led to a dramatic tightening of the DAP market. As a result,
ending inventories for US DAP producers were 11 percent below the
five-year average while prices rose. Continued curtailments at
North American nitrogen facilities, combined with strong offshore
demand that is limiting the growth of ammonia imports, tightened
nitrogen fundamentals. These factors, supported by higher North
American natural gas prices, raised nitrogen prices, reinforcing
the value of lower-cost gas at PotashCorp's Trinidad asset. Potash
Operations Record potash gross margin of $223.3 million was 84
percent higher than the $121.4 million in last year's second
quarter, raising year-to-date gross margin in this nutrient to
$399.5 million. Higher prices improved gross margin as a percentage
of net sales to 63 percent, compared to 46 percent in last year's
second quarter and 58 percent in the trailing quarter.
Second-quarter offshore realized prices rose by more than $43 per
tonne over the same period last year, as prices increased and ocean
freight rates fell. North American realized prices were up nearly
$55 quarter over quarter, as previously announced price increases
took hold. An additional $11-per-tonne increase effective June 1 is
also being realized. The pricing gap between the two markets is the
result of offshore customers purchasing under contracts that are
lagging behind North American spot-market increases. The difference
also reflects product mix, as North American customers prefer
granular products that command a premium of $15 to $20 per tonne
over standard products, which are more typically consumed offshore.
Healthy first-half potash sales volumes surpassed the record
volumes achieved in the same period last year. In North America,
second-quarter volumes fell below the record of last year's same
quarter, but were flat for the six months ended June 30, as
customers purchased large amounts in advance of price increases.
Second-quarter offshore volumes were down slightly in 2005 after a
slow start from Brazil, which reduced shipments from New Brunswick.
Sales to other key customers were strong, as China's
quarter-over-quarter volumes rose 15 percent, India's 27 percent
(although it was out of the market for May and June) and
Indonesia's 12 percent. PotashCorp achieved record first- half
shipments to the offshore market in spite of a reduced take from
Brazil, the company's largest customer in 2004, demonstrating the
strength and diversity of the company's customer base. PotashCorp's
total quarterly production increased by approximately 173,000
tonnes. However, costs on a per-tonne basis were up slightly
compared to the same quarter last year as a result of minor
unplanned downtime, higher energy costs in New Brunswick, and a
stronger Canadian dollar. The company's potash inventories declined
by roughly 150,000 tonnes from the same period last year. Phosphate
Operations Improvement in phosphate continued, as it contributed
$22.1 million in gross margin compared to $5.7 million in the same
quarter last year and $17.0 million in the first quarter of 2005.
Industrial products remained the strongest-performing area of the
phosphate business, accounting for about 71 percent of phosphate
gross margin in the second quarter. The improvement in overall
margin was due to higher prices for phosphate products, including a
9-percent increase in realized prices for solid fertilizer and a
10-percent jump in liquid fertilizer prices. Prices for industrial
phosphate rose 4 percent and feed phosphate was up 19 percent.
Sales volumes increased in all major phosphate categories, with DAP
and MAP volumes up 9 percent quarter over quarter. However, costs
on a per-tonne basis were up 4 percent quarter over quarter. This
is primarily due to a 29-percent increase in ammonia prices, which
more than offset the gains achieved from higher operating rates.
Sulfur and phosphate rock costs remained flat through the quarter.
Nitrogen Operations Nitrogen gross margin of $99.4 million was 128
percent higher than in last year's second quarter, reflecting
higher prices and strong performance in both Trinidad and the
United States. Trinidad accounted for approximately 60 percent of
nitrogen gross margin, contributing $35 million more than in second
quarter 2004. PotashCorp also realized in the second quarter $14
million of the first-quarter unrealized gain on the sale of the
natural gas hedge, which is recognized as nitrogen tonnes are sold
throughout the year and will add a total of approximately $48
million in gross margin in 2005. Realized prices for ammonia rose
$73 per tonne quarter over quarter and urea was up nearly $82 per
tonne. Sales volumes were consistent with last year's second
quarter and up 7 percent from the first quarter of 2005. Ammonia
production at Trinidad was down quarter over quarter, due primarily
to a 32-day shutdown of one plant for expansion installations.
Although the company paid higher prices for natural gas, even
larger increases in nitrogen prices pushed margins up. Financial
Strong cash flow was utilized to further enhance PotashCorp's
leadership position in potash. In the second quarter, the company
repurchased 2.5 million PotashCorp shares for $219.6 million;
invested $18.6 million in APC and now owns 28 percent of that
company; and increased ownership in Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) to
10 percent with a $74.9-million investment. The market value of the
APC and ICL investments, along with the investment in SQM, now
exceeds the company's cost by over $1.0 billion on a pre-tax basis.
PotashCorp also spent $74.5 million on capital expenditures during
the quarter, with a significant portion related to bringing back
idle potash capacity. On July 27, 2005, the reorganization of
Sinochem Corporation's fertilizer business and institutional
placement of Sinochem Hong Kong Holdings Limited was completed.
Upon closing, PotashCorp invested $97.1 million to purchase a 9.99
percent stake in the newly reorganized company to be known as
Sinofert. PotashCorp also holds an option to purchase an additional
10.01 percent of the company within three years. PotashCorp
realized a $6.1 million gain as the Canadian dollar weakened from
$1.2096 at March 31, 2005 to $1.2256 at June 30, 2005. Each
one-cent change in the Canadian dollar has an impact of
approximately $3.5 million on the foreign-exchange line, although
this is primarily a non-cash item. Selling, general and
administrative expenses were up $29.5 million over the same quarter
last year. This change is due primarily to the non-cash expense
associated with performance stock options granted to employees in
the second-quarter of 2005. In accordance with accounting
standards, compensation expense recognition was accelerated for
stock options granted to employees whose retirement eligibility
preceded the plan's vesting period. This is expected to result in a
total pre-tax expense of $24.8 million in 2005, $22.0 million of
which was recognized in the second quarter. The remainder of the
increase was principally due to higher accruals for other
performance- based variable compensation plans. The company's
effective income tax rate was 33 percent for the quarter. The total
tax provision increased due to significantly higher profitability
of potash operations in Canada. The current/future split was 90/10
percent for the quarter. Provincial mining taxes continued to
increase, driven directly by increasing potash margins. Outlook
Tight supply/demand fundamentals are expected to continue for all
three nutrients, most significantly in potash. Brazil returned to
the potash market in the second quarter and is expected to purchase
more aggressively before the end of the year, although it will
likely still fall short of its 2004 purchases. India is also
expected to come back into the market strongly as contract
negotiations are now being completed. Potash sales volumes to
offshore and North American markets in the second half of the year
are expected to outpace the same period in 2004, with the offshore
market setting another record. These volumes, along with expected
further price increases, could push potash gross margin through the
$800 million level this year. In North America, the $11-per-tonne
price increase from June 1, 2005 should be fully realized in the
third quarter and an additional $11-per-tonne increase has been
announced for September 1, 2005. New offshore contract prices are
expected to increase as well, although realized prices can be
impacted by changing ocean freight rates. The company expects the
provincial mining tax rate on potash gross margin to approximate 20
percent through 2005. Production from PotashCorp mineral rights at
Esterhazy is carried out by Mosaic under a mining and processing
agreement that allows PotashCorp to acquire up to 25 percent
participation in any expansion. In April, Mosaic announced plans to
expand capacity at Esterhazy by 360,000 tonnes at a cost of $28
million. PotashCorp will participate in this expansion, investing
25 percent of the cost for 25 percent of the additional tonnage, on
top of our current maximum annual entitlement of 953,000 tonnes.
These new tonnes are expected to be available in the fourth quarter
of 2006. Assuming maximum annual take under the mining and
processing agreement, the company currently expects its mineral
rights at Esterhazy to support continuation of the agreement with
Mosaic until the first quarter of 2013. In phosphate, the
short-term outlook is positive as both North American and offshore
demand are strong and prices are at 10-year highs. The benefits,
however, are partially offset by higher costs for ammonia, sulfur,
energy, labor and rock that are suppressing margins well below
where they were the last time prices were at this level. Production
and inventories of phosphoric acid are tight globally and sales to
India are expected to remain strong. Strong market fundamentals are
also expected to continue in feed phosphate supplements,
strengthening prices and margins. Industrial products are expected
to continue providing the highest and most stable gross margin in
phosphate. The tight supply/demand in nitrogen is now expected to
continue well into 2006. World demand is growing, while supply is
expected to be kept in check as producers - especially those
requiring high-cost natural gas in the US and Europe - curtail
unprofitable production. North American natural gas strip prices
through 2007 indicate gas will remain in excess of $7 per MMBtu,
which benefits PotashCorp and our lower-cost Trinidad nitrogen
production. Capital expenditures for 2005 are now estimated to be
$410 million, of which $135 million is related to sustaining
capital. Given the continued positive industry fundamentals, and
based on a $1.20 Canadian dollar, PotashCorp is now expecting
third-quarter net income to be in the range of $1.15 to $1.35 per
diluted share. Net income for the full year is expected to be in
the range of $5.00 to $5.50 per diluted share. The company's cash
position at the end of 2005 is expected to be similar to that at
the beginning of the year, even after additional investments in
potash capacity, expanded ownership in global potash company
investments and the repurchase of up to 5 percent of outstanding
shares. Conclusion "Our second-quarter performance shows the
continuing momentum of our company and the competitive advantage
that we have in potash, the foundation of our business," said
Doyle. "As we look ahead, we expect this to be amplified. US net
cash farm income is expected to be a record for the third
consecutive year and strong economic conditions around the world
should continue to support growing fertilizer demand. Unlike last
year when growing conditions were ideal in almost all regions,
farmers are facing drought in many areas. The world's grain
stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 18.6 percent, meaning
there will be more pressure on farmers to increase production. This
is a challenge to potash supply that we are ideally positioned to
meet, making us a primary beneficiary of these strong fundamentals,
to the benefit of all of our stakeholders." Potash Corporation of
Saskatchewan Inc. is the world's largest fertilizer enterprise
producing the three primary plant nutrients and a leading supplier
to three distinct market categories: agriculture, with the largest
capacity in the world in potash, third largest in phosphate and
fourth largest in nitrogen; animal nutrition, with the world's
largest capacity in phosphate feed ingredients; and industrial
chemicals, as the largest global producer of industrial nitrogen
products and one of only three North American suppliers of
industrial phosphates. This release contains forward-looking
statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, including those
referred to in the company's annual report to shareholders for 2004
and in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and
Canadian provincial securities commissions. A number of factors
could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the
forward- looking statements, including, but not limited to:
fluctuation in supply and demand in fertilizer, sulfur,
transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive
pressures, including pricing pressures; risks associated with
natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital
markets; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected
geological or environmental conditions; and government policy
changes.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
PotashCorp will host a conference call on Thursday, July 28, 2005,
at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time. To join the call, dial (706) 643-3329 at
least 10 minutes prior to the start time. Alternatively, visit
http://www.potashcorp.com/ for a live webcast of the conference
call in a listen-only mode. This news release is also available at
this same website.