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10 hours ago
Silver Reverses Higher for Bullish Outlook
By: Bruce Powers | March 3, 2025
• Silver reversed higher from a key trendline, signaling bullish momentum. A breakout above $32.76 may push prices toward the previous swing high at $33.39.
Silver triggered a one-day bullish reversal on Monday as it broke out above last Friday’s high of $31.40 and kept going. Friday’s pattern was a bullish hammer candlestick with the lows bouncing off support around both the 50-Day MA at $30.97 and an internal uptrend line. The high for today was $31.84 and the low $31.12. This establishes a higher daily high and high low for silver for the first time in seven days. A daily closing price above $31.40 will confirm the breakout, while a closing price below that level shows downward pressure remaining.
Bull Hammer Reversal Triggered
Nonetheless, a bullish reversal was triggered from a key support level, and it sets the stage for further strengthening. Friday’s low at $30.81 has established higher swing low at an identified support level. And a rising trendline has been hit touched for the third time and at a similar price level as the 50-Day MA. These are bullish signs that should lead to higher prices. They fit within a larger developing bullish pattern.
Notice the declining trend channel with the top line begun from the October trend high at $34.87. Friday’s swing low was the first pullback following the bull breakout above that trendline in late-January. Moreover, the same is true for the 50-Day MA (orange). It was reclaimed in late January and Friday’s test of the line as support was the first since the bull breakout. Once prior resistance is successfully tested as support following a bull breakout, the trend is poised to continue higher.
Higher Resistance Likely Tested
Last week silver established a relatively wide price range from a low of $30.81 to a high at $32.76. Therefore, strength on a weekly time frame would occur on a rise above $32.76. Until then resistance seen on the approach to that high has less significance. Given the wide range last week, it is possible that this week’s trading range ends up as an inside week.
Near-term resistance is around the four-day high of $31.96, followed by the 20-Day MA at $31.12. It certainly looks like the market recognized the 20-Day line on the way down. Therefore, a sustained rise above the 20-Day MA will go a long way in confirming strength. A daily close above the 20-Day MA should greatly improve the chance for a challenge to resistance at the recent swing high of $33.39.
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3 days ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31496 and is trading up about 7.70% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in March is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 31600 and support forming below at 31395. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 34240, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 8 weeks reaching a high during the week of February 10th at 34240. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 8.396% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 29145 as it has fallen back reaching only 31365 which still remains 7.617% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 34240 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25918 and 36900. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of February 10th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33330 made back during the week of December 9th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 21st suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 29145 made the week of December 16th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in February, this market has held above last month's low of 31365 reaching 31365.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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5 days ago
Silver (XAG) Forecast: Price Struggles at $31.81—Rebound or More Selling Ahead?
By: James Hyerczyk | February 27, 2025
Key Points:
• Silver prices flat at $31.81; a break lower could target $30.87, while a rebound might push towards $32.53—traders eye key technical levels.
• Trump’s copper tariff probe stirs inflation fears, but silver’s industrial demand risks add a bearish twist to the silver market outlook.
• Gold's price stability at $2,956.31 could support silver, but weak industrial demand may limit silver's rally potential.
• Friday’s PCE report may sway silver prices, with inflation and Fed policy signals adding potential volatility to the silver market.
• Silver's ability to hold $31.81 is critical; a failure could trigger selling, while a recovery might open short-term buying opportunities.
Silver Prices Struggle for Momentum
Daily Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices remained flat on Wednesday, holding near the critical 50% retracement level at $31.81. This follows a sharp 1.88% drop on Tuesday, signaling potential indecision in the market.
A decisive move below $31.81 could trigger accelerated selling, targeting the 50-day moving average at $30.87 and possibly the 200-day moving average at $30.51.
Conversely, reclaiming $31.81 might spark a rebound towards the 61.8% retracement level at $32.53, providing a potential short-term buying opportunity?.
At 13:34 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $31.86, up $0.003 or +0.01%.
Trump’s Tariff Policies Weigh on Industrial Demand
The silver market is grappling with uncertainty tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. His recent investigation into new copper tariffs has heightened inflation concerns, which traditionally support precious metals.
However, silver’s dual role as both a safe-haven and an industrial metal adds complexity. While gold might benefit from safe-haven demand, silver could face pressure if tariffs dampen industrial activity. Traders are cautious, balancing silver’s appeal as a hedge against inflation with its vulnerability to a potential slowdown in industrial demand?.
Gold’s Performance Influences Silver Sentiment
Gold’s recent price action is also shaping sentiment in the silver market. After a sharp 2% drop on Tuesday, gold steadied on Wednesday, maintaining a broadly bullish trend. A potential breakout above $2,956.31 could lift silver, as traders often view silver as a cheaper alternative to gold. However, if gold fails to gain traction, silver might remain under pressure, especially if industrial demand weakens amid tariff and economic concerns??.
Economic Data Could Be a Game Changer
Upcoming U.S. economic data, including Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, could provide fresh direction for silver prices. Inflation pressures and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy might impact silver’s industrial demand outlook.
With rising Treasury yields and mixed economic indicators—such as weak consumer confidence and soft housing data—traders are on alert for signals that could influence silver’s balance between safe-haven and industrial market forces??.
Market Forecast: Silver at a Pivotal Juncture
Silver’s ability to hold the $31.81 level will be critical in the coming days. A break lower could lead to further selling, while a rebound might create a tactical buying opportunity.
Given the uncertainty around U.S. trade policies and key economic data, silver traders should remain agile, closely monitoring the metal’s dual influences of safe-haven demand and industrial use.
Gold’s performance will also serve as a valuable sentiment gauge, but silver’s path forward will largely hinge on trade developments and economic signals?.
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1 week ago
Silver Bullish Momentum Faces Key Support Test at 20-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | February 24, 2025
• Silver’s uptrend faces resistance after a 16.2% surge. The 20-Day MA supports momentum, but a drop below $31.92 could weaken the bullish outlook.
The larger time frame monthly chart in silver shows a bull breakout earlier this month on a rise above January’s high of $31.74. Subsequently, silver gained as much as $4.65 or 16.2% as of the February high at $33.39. That performance is measured from the swing low of $28.74 hit in mid-December. The February high got very close to completing a 78.6% retracement of the recent bearish correction.
Consolidating Around Highs
Since that high silver has largely consolidated within the price range from the day the peak was reached on February 14. Note that high was reached on a Friday and the day ended with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. The low for that day was $32.07.
Silver dipped below $32.07 on the following day but since then trading has been retained within the price range of $32.07 to $33.39 from that day. Overall, the bearish implications from the shooting star candlestick pattern have not been realized.
20-Day MA Offers Key Trend Support
Since the 20-Day MA (purple) was reclaimed on January 28 that line has done a good job of identifying dynamic support for the near-term uptrend. There were two days following where silver dipped to test support around the 20-Day line. It did so again today, Monday, as the day’s low of $32.09 was close to 20-Day MA at $32.03.
Notice that buyers got more aggressive from today’s low, reflecting support. Given the reaction around the 20-Day MA it remains a key dynamic support indicator. A potential change in upward momentum would be indicated if there is a dip below that line that is followed by the price of silver staying below the line.
Weekly Bullish Trend
There is also a weekly low from last week at $31.92 that makes up the weekly uptrend of higher weekly lows that have been in place for four weeks. A pattern of higher weekly highs was in place for seven weeks until last week when there was a lower weekly high. Last week silver ended the weekly session in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the week’s trading range. There was also a weak weekly closing price shown two weeks ago as well.
A decisive decline below the weekly low at $31.92 would further confirm bearish implications following a drop below the 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day line and the weekly low are relatively close to each other, a drop below the 20-Day MA may find support above the weekly low.
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1 week ago
$Silver - The last time it had an up week but the high of the week was lower than the previous week was in April 2024, 2 weeks before a 14 week cycle low, the same as now...
By: CyclesFan | February 22, 2025
• $Silver - The last time it had an up week but the high of the week was lower than the previous week was in April 2024, 2 weeks before a 14 week cycle low, the same as now. The next 14 week low is due in early March and target could be the 10 week MA, just like in April 2024.
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1 week ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 33012 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. This price action here in February is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 34240 intraday and is still trading above that high of 32920.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32585 and overhead resistance forming above at 33195. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 34240, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 8 weeks reaching a high during the week of February 10th at 34240. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.198% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 29145 as it has fallen back reaching only 32460 which still remains 11.37% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 34240 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25893 and 36865. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 10th has exceeded the previous high of 33330 made back during the week of December 9th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 29145 made the week of December 16th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in February, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 31610.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Continues to Pressure Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | February 18, 2025
• The silver market continues to threaten a breakout but also continues to see a lot of overhead resistance.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially fell a bit against the backdrop of US dollar strength but has turned around during the trading session on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to do everything we can in order to get the market moving to the upside. Keep in mind there is a lot of resistance just above, but it certainly looks as if we are doing everything, we can to go ahead and try to break higher.
The Friday candlestick from last week was a bit frightening as it were, considering that we had broken so much higher only to turn around and fail. But the resiliency of the silver market is something that’s capturing my attention at the moment. The $32.35 level continues to be an area of extreme interest. And I do think that short-term pullbacks probably end up being buying opportunities overall. If we do break higher, then you will have to watch the $33.35 level where we pulled back from, but all things being equal.
It’s probably worth noting that metals are at least trying to shoot higher. And of course, silver will eventually fall one way or the other along the path of how other metals like gold, palladium and platinum are doing. So, with all of this, we’ve been on an uptrend for a long time. And now I think we’re just pressuring this area, trying to break higher and find enough inertia to finally follow through. I don’t have any interest in shorting silver. And I look at short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Struggles at Resistance After Bearish Reversal Signal
By: Bruce Powers | February 17, 2025
• Silver reversed after hitting $33.39, forming a bearish shooting star. While long-term trends remain bullish, short-term resistance may limit the upside in the near term.
Silver completed an ominous bearish weekly shooting star candlestick pattern last week following a new rally high of $33.39 that was reached on Friday. Consequently, the one-day pattern from Friday is also a bearish shooting star pattern. On Monday, silver dipped briefly below Friday’s low of $31.92 before support was seen around a nearby uptrend line. Strength subsequently returned intraday with silver closing in the green.
Weekly Bearish Candle Shows Downward Pressure
Given that Friday’s price range was relatively wide, a continuation of today’s advance from the day’s low is certainly possible. But silver would be advancing inside the price range of a bearish pattern and therefore resistance would be anticipated to eventually be hit, and lead to further weakening. Notice the distinct bearish reaction on Friday once the $33.39 high was reached.
Friday ended near the lows of the day. Although there is a 78.6% retracement level at $33.56, the 161.8% extended target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple) looks to be the pattern influences the bearish reaction. The ABCD pattern reached its extended target at $33.34.
Weekly Chart is Bullish
With last week’s wide range silver could trade this week inside last week’s price range from $31.25 to $33.39. It is interesting to note that last week’s low was at the 20-Week MA and it was the first full weekly range above the 20-Week line since November. This is a sign of strengthening on the longer time frame pattern and therefore noteworthy. It shows the progression of a weekly uptrend from the December swing low, which provides bullish signs as prior resistance has successfully been tested as support.
This makes last week’s low of $31.25 a significant support level. If silver can stay above that low, it will continue to have a chance of proceeding higher as the weekly bull trend will be retained as well as support at the 20-Week line.
Monthly Chart Also Bullish
The bull picture would not be complete without recognizing clues on the monthly chart. During February silver triggered a monthly breakout above January’s high. January was an inside month as trading was contained within the price range from December. The subsequent rally broke out above both December and November’s highs as well, thereby providing additional bullish signals on the long-term time frame.
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2 weeks ago
Silver catches a lift from gold's bull run to eye 10-year peak
By: Reuters | February 16, 2025
Silver prices hit their highest since late October on Friday, latching on to factors that drove gold to successive record highs, with some analysts suggesting investors in the metal may aim to challenge a 10-year high just shy of $35 per ounce.
However some analysts were cautious on the market's trajectory, given higher volatility in silver and a failure to reach similar dizzying heights as gold in 2024.
Spot silver was last up 2% at $33 per ounce, having hit its highest level since late October at $33.41. The white metal scaled a more than 10-year peak of $34.87 per ounce on October 22.
"Silver's been a laggard, and some would refer to it as the Cinderella metal, because it always misses the ball. Having said that, silver has finally woken up and broken above some key technical resistance," independent analyst Ross Norman said.
If current momentum continued, silver could challenge the $35 level, he added.
After rising 21% in 2024, silver, both a precious and industrial metal, has gained 14% so far in 2025 supported by similar factors to gold - a jump in U.S. Comex futures prices on concerns of a possible trade war sparked by proposed U.S. import tariffs. The U.S. March silver contract was last up 3.3% at $33.79.
In recent weeks the spread between Comex gold futures and London spot prices has widened significantly, while the spot gold price hit a record $2,942.70 per ounce on Tuesday.
Providing additional support to silver, copper prices hit their highest in more than three months in London on Friday. [MET/L]
The unusually high premium between CME futures and London spot prices caused volatility in the part of the market known as the exchange of futures for physical (EFP), used as a hedge to general precious business activity, and attracted massive inflows to the silver stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses.
CME silver stocks jumped by 22% to 375.8 million ounces since November 24 when U.S. President Donald Trump pledged steep tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada. Trump later delayed the tariffs until March.
CME gold stocks had seen a sharper growth since November partly because gold is flown around by plane and silver is usually transported by sea or land.
"Elevated EFPs continue to draw metal from London into the COMEX, with the threat of tariffs inadvertently accelerating the drain on LBMA inventories towards critical levels," TD Securities said.
The amount of silver stored in the London vaults fell by 8.6% from December to 23,528 tons in January, worth $23.9 billion, the London Bullion Market Association said last week.
The monthly decline was the largest since the LBMA records began in mid-2016.
VOLATILE
Despite some bullish-looking factors, analysts noted the silver market's propensity to be volatile - injecting a note of caution.
"Silver has a long history of higher volatility than gold, and that when gold makes a decisive move, silver's amplitude is usually 2.0-2.5 times that of gold," StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said in a recent note.
Prices also looked slightly vulnerable from a technical perspective.
"Last year's range was $22-35; unusually wide. The previous year was $19-27 and that range was made in the first handful of months," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.
"It feels disappointing because gold made 40 historic highs in 2024 and silver 0," he added.
About half of silver usage comes from industrial use, which may be subject to headwinds if a trade war has a chilling effect on global economic growth.
There may be fewer rate cuts than previously expected by the U.S. Federal Reserve and slowing growth in China, said Hamad Hussain, assistant climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
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2 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 34240. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 14 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 3 daysNonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators yet the immediate indicator is positive right now.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32660 and overhead resistance forming above at 33165. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 34240, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 34240 to 31650. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 34240 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 26763 and 35737. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 10th reaching 34240 has exceeded the previous high of 33330 made back during the week of December 9th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in February, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 31610.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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3 weeks ago
Silver Faces Key Resistance, Possible Pullback Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | February 10, 2025
• Silver struggles near $32.65 resistance, with recent pullbacks indicating potential for deeper corrections towards $31.18 before a bullish continuation.
Silver has been testing resistance around a $32.65 swing high for the past four days or so as it consolidated around the highs. The resistance zone is represented by an internal uptrend line, a prior swing high from early-December at $32.33, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the high at $32.53. In other words, a likely solid resistance zone. On Monday, silver pulled back and generated a lower daily low and lower high, reflecting short-term weakness.
Since the pullback originates from a likely resistance zone, the price of silver may get weaker before attempting to go higher. It is also interesting to note that Friday’s price action had characteristics of a key reversal day. A new trend high was reached earlier in the session, but it was followed by sellers taking control and driving the price to the lows of the day by the end of the day.
Bull Breakout Failed to Hold
Moreover, notice the advance triggered a bull breakout above the trendline and then closed above the line for two days. That was a sign of strength. However, subsequent price action did not confirm strength and last Friday silver closed below the trendline. It looks ready to do the same today.
There is an increased chance that there has been a failed bullish breakout of the trendline and therefore that is supportive of a deeper pullback to test lower price levels, before the bull trend may be ready to continue. Further, during the advance a prior swing high at $32.33 was exceeded, which is a sign of strength. But that strength was not confirmed by a daily close above that interim swing high.
Bearish Decline Towards Support
A decline below Monday’s low of $31.71 is a sign of weakness and a likely precursor to lower prices. The first lower target is around the 50% retracement level at $31.18. Also, the 20-Week MA shows potential support at the same price area. Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is rising and close to converging with the 50% retracement level.
That relationship should be watched as it develops further since the closer those two price levels are to one another if approached, the strong the potential support. A test of support at the 20-Day line would be the first swing back since the line crossed above the 50-Day MA (orange) late last month.
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3 weeks ago
Precious Metals Sector update - Spectacular Advance Soon - here's why...
By: Clive Maund | February 9, 2025
The purpose of this Precious Metals sector update is to make two points clear in as short order as possible. The first is to explain why gold’s current powerful uptrend, that began less than a year ago, has much further to run. The second is to demonstrate that silver’s corresponding powerful uptrend has barely begun yet and that therefore silver and silver investments are outstandingly attractive now with almost everything to go for and also to point out that the related imminent powerful uptrend in Precious Metals stocks has not even started yet, but is about to.
With regards to the first point, consider the following long-term arithmetic gold chart going back to the start of this millenium, i.e. to the start of the year 2000. It looks like gold has risen quite a lot over the past year, doesn’t it?...
Now look at a chart for the same time period on a log scale – see the difference? Compared to the Great 2000’s bull market in proportional terms, i.e. in percentage terms, gold has hardly risen at all over the past year. This means that this major uptrend is still in its early stages and has much, much further to go, hardly surprising considering that under a year ago it broke out of a massive 12-year long consolidation pattern and it’s even less surprising when you also consider that with currencies collapsing due to Central Bank profligacy, we are headed in the direction of hyperinflation, which of course also means that the uptrend could accelerate dramatically to the upside.
Now to the second point. We see on gold’s 6-year chart that, having broken out of the massive 12-year Cup & Handle consolidation pattern under a year ago, gold is now forging ahead within a powerful uptrend and we also see that it found support at the lower rail of this channel at the end of last year which launched it into the current upleg.
But what about silver? While gold has been romping ahead over the past year, silver has been “dragging its feet” and has scarcely gotten above its 2020 and 2021 highs, as we can see on its latest 6-year chart below. However, this is not a cause for concern for silver investors because, as we can see on the chart, it has just poked its nose out of the top of a big bullish Bowl pattern that has built out since mid-2020 that promises to slingshot silver initially to resistance at its 2011 highs at $50 and in any case it is perfectly normal for gold to take the lead during the early stages of a sector advance. We should also be cognizant of the fact that the sideways pattern that has formed in silver over the past 8 months or so with it perched just above the boundary of the Bowl may constitute the “Handle” of a big Cup & Handle consolidation pattern that has formed since mid-2020.
As for Precious Metals stocks we know that they have been seriously underperforming gold for the past year, but again, we see on the 6-year chart for GDX that it is in the latest stages of a big Cup & Handle consolidation pattern that is remarkably similar to the one that has formed in silver over the same period, but in the case of GDX it has yet to break out of it. The importance of this cannot be overstated – it means that with regards to Precious Metals stocks there is everything to go for once GDX breaks out the top of this big Bowl pattern it can be expected to slingshot higher resulting in spectacular gains in many PM stocks, especially in large and mid-cap stock in the early stages in the early stages of the runup.
What about the argument and the fear that the stock market is going to crash and take down the PM sector with it? This is an argument that keeps replaying like one of those old 78 rpm records that is set to replay endlessly. It doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. Here’s why – roughly 90% of the stock market is now owned by the wealthiest 1 to 2% of the population who have the most political power and ability to exert influence. The system is therefore organized to protect their interests and the way it works is that the Fed creates new money in ever increasing amounts to backstop the increasingly fragile debt market to stop it imploding and in this manner protect the stock market. The new money eventually feeds through into higher inflation so that the middle and lower classes end up footing the bill for it all. This is why we are headed for hyperinflation, because perpetuation of the current system best serves the interests of the ruling class for as long as possible.
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3 weeks ago
Silver’s Cautious Climb
By: Ayesha Tariq | February 9, 2025
Silver is quite different.
Silver is usually driven by actual industrial demand, which accounts for about 55% of the consumption. The Silver Institute’s recent report suggests that there is an undersupply and is projected to continue in 2025, for the 5th consecutive year. This will likely mean that there is a floor when it comes to silver prices.
The Institute discusses demand for about 1.20 billion ounces, mostly driven by a 3% increase in industrial use. Supply is also forecasted to grow at about 3% delivering 1.05 billion ounces, still falling short of the demand.
“Concerns about President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff policies have fueled short covering and deliveries of silver (and other precious metals) into CME warehouses since late 2024. This, coupled with rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties, has underpinned a healthy recovery in silver prices since the start of 2025.” - Silver Institute
Silver prices have seen a gradual uptrend since late 2022, with current prices around $31 per ounce. Given the demand-supply imbalance, there is room to the upside, perhaps until $38/oz. This trend could mean that we start to see more mining investments, leading to increased supply, and potentially putting a cap on prices at around $40/oz.
While we’ve seen some support in the early parts of 2025, as the Silver Institute notes above, much of it has been driven by the policies directed towards Mexico, which remains the largest producer of silver on record.
Increased policy uncertainty is unlikely to support prices for too long, unlike with gold. If we look at the ratio of Silver prices to Gold prices, it’s quite clear that we had a run-up into the elections last year and since then we’ve seen a downward trend.
Tariffs and a stronger USD could actually weigh on demand and consequently prices.
So the bottom line is, while there is room to the upside in Silver prices, there is a cap on how far prices can go. Gold is likely to run further.
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3 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures - Turning Back UP »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 8, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 32443 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. This price action here in February is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33215 intraday and is still trading above that high of 32920.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32225 and overhead resistance forming above at 32920. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 3rd at 33215, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 33215 to 31610. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 33215 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 29047 and 33081. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 3rd reaching 33215 has exceeded the previous high of 31985 made back during the week of January 13th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in February, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 31610.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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4 weeks ago
Silver Continues to Pressure Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | February 7, 2025
• During the trading on Friday, we saw the silver market initially dip, only to turn around and show signs of strength yet again. Because of this, I think the market is likely to continue to be bullish.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially pulled back just a bit against the US dollar after the non-farm payroll announcement came out. But as you can see, we have turned around to show signs of life again. This suggests that we could break out to the upside given enough time, but I also recognize that there is a lot of noise all the way up to the $33 level.
The daily close on the chart for Friday will be very important to pay attention to, because it’s one thing to impulsively jump into an asset, but it’s a completely different set of circumstances to buy that asset and simply hang on to it through the weekend. So, I think this is something that we need to pay attention to.
I do think short-term pullbacks will continue to be looked at favorably for buying opportunities, with the 50-day EMA reaching towards the $31 level. In general, this is a market that’s been in an uptrend for quite some time and if we are in fact going to continue to see inflationary issues, things like silver, commodities and stuff could get a little bit of a bid. We’ll just have to wait and see.
A break above the $33 level could certainly open up the possibility of a much bigger leg higher to at least the $35 level, where we had peaked previously. The $31 level being violated to the downside could be a major shift in attitude, but right now it doesn’t look like a very likely outcome. I still believe that buyers are willing to come in and pick up cheap ounces of silver anytime they get the chance.
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4 weeks ago
Silver Bullish Hammer Signals Strength, Targets Higher Resistance Levels
By: Bruce Powers | February 3, 2025
• Silver reversed from key support near $30.69, holding the 20-Day MA. A breakout above $31.74 could confirm further gains toward Fibonacci resistance levels.
Despite weakness earlier in Monday’s session, silver is on track to close in a bullish position and possibly ending the day with bullish hammer candlestick pattern. It shows weakness to a three-day low earlier in the session before support was seen at the day’s low of 30.69. Since that low was relatively close to the 20-Day MA at 3.56, and given the subsequent bullish reaction following the low, a successful test of support around the 20-Day line was completed.
This could clear the way for a continuation of the bull trend that triggered a new bull breakout last week, above a downtrend line. Also, note that the 20-Day line crossed back above the 50-Day MA, which is also a sign of a strengthening trend.
Bull Hammer Shows Failed Selloff
If the day does end with a bullish hammer, a breakout above today’s high of 31.68 will be a sign of strength and it should be followed by an advance above last week’s high of 31.74. The high met resistance around the 50% retracement level at 31.81 and an uptrend line that previously indicated support for the rising trend. Therefore, a bullish breakout above last week’s high should quickly exceed the 50% level. And the trendline could continue to mark potential resistance since it is at an angle.
Next Higher Target is 32.53
Nonetheless, above the 50% retracement is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target at 32.53. That target can be watched along with a prior interim swing high at 32.33. Further up from there is the 78.6% retracement at 33.56, also a target. Notice that it coincides with the area around a top rising channel line. There were two failed attempts last year to break out above the line. The first was in May and the second was in October.
Long-term Weekly and Monthly Breakouts
Keep in mind that a breakout above 31.74 triggers a weekly breakout and therefore a bull trend continuation signal on a larger time frame than the daily chart. Moreover, it will also trigger a monthly breakout as the month of January has just completed. The trading range for January was inside the range from November, therefore, January completed an inside month.
There are two other indications on the weekly chart of interest. First, the recent swing low in late-December successfully tested support around the 50-Week MA. Further, silver reclaimed the 20-Week MA last week after it had been dynamic resistance for around six weeks.
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1 month ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 1, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 32265 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. This price action here in February is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 31685.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down from the week of December 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past 6 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 12.95%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 29145 made 6 weeks .
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to See Noisy Bullish Behavior
By: Christopher Lewis | January 31, 2025
• The silver market initially fell a bit in the early hours of Friday, but at this point in time is looking to go higher, as we have bounced back quite nicely by the time that New York came online for trading.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has pulled back during the trading session on Friday but found enough buyers to turn things around yet again. What’s interesting to me is that the previous uptrend line that had been resistance now has offered support. Somewhat interesting. At this point, the market looks like it could go higher and with the threat of tariffs coming out of the United States on Canada and Mexico, that does suggest that people are going to be protecting their portfolios, perhaps with precious metals.
Now, having said that, what’s interesting is that gold has broken out to a fresh new high, and silver is a bit of a lagger, but that does make sense due to the fact that silver is also an industrial metal. Quite frankly, I think you’ve got a situation where silver might try to play catch-up, and the first target will be the $32.35 level, an area that’s seen a lot of noise in the past.
If we do pull back from here, I would expect both the $31 level and the 50-day EMA to offer support from a technical analysis standpoint. In general, this is a market that I think remains bullish, but it probably lags gold as it just simply isn’t as much of a precious metals trade only at this point. It has more to do with industry and obviously tariffs could be a bit of a negative factor here, as the industrial use scenario could counterbalance the bullishness of the precious metals side of the equation.
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1 month ago
The Silver Lining Playbook. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | January 30, 2025
There may be a silver lining in the old gold silver ratio playbook. For the first time in a long time, it seems like silver might get ready to outperforming gold.
A beautiful head and shoulders formation that I mentioned just some folks in silver could be an and early turning
That really is starting to play out on silver, and we could see the long-awaited correction or normalization with the gold silver spread. While it may not be time to buy right now, we are getting close to a turnaround.
Yet the question is why spread when both markets are going up both silver and gold have put incredible bases, we continue to believe the gold will hit $3000 an ounce we also believe that silver is going to hit $60.00 at some point those long-term traders are starting to get some dollars put into their pockets.
After the Fed meeting yesterday and no apparent conviction to either raise or cut rates the industrial metals seemed to bounce back industrial metals may take their cue from earnings, but the chart formations on both copper aluminum Palladium looked like they’ve broken out for a little bit.
Because we’ve been saying for some time, we really like the gold market as an investment as well as a trade.
Kitco News reported that “ Gold is traditionally seen as a defensive asset, as insurance in a portfolio; however, the precious metal’s historic gains last year could begin to challenge what appears to be an outdated definition.
They point out that this week, The Swiss Federal Pension Fund PUBLICA reported a net investment return of 5.9% in 2024, consolidated across all pension plans. T he Fund said that its returns were driven by its equity investments and precious metal holdings. Publica said that its equity holdings had the biggest positive impact on PUBLICA’s consolidated total assets in 2024.“With a net annual return of 14.5%, they contributed 4.7 percentage points to the overall return of 5.9%,” the company said in its statement. North American-listed companies performed the best while European stocks underperformed.
Meanwhile, the fund said precious metals were the second-biggest influence on PUBLICA’s consolidated total assets in 2024, delivering a 33% return.
China is continuing to make major investments to secure supplies of industrial metals. Bloomberg is reporting that Tanzania signed a $2.15 billion deal with two Chinese firms to construct a railway linking its main port of Dar es Salaam to a nickel mine in neighboring Burundi. Tanzania Railways Corp. awarded the contracts to China Railway Engineering Group Ltd. and China Railway Engineering Design and Consulting Group Co. in Dar es Salaam.
Reuters reported that – President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on U.S. copper and aluminum imports will result in higher costs for local consumers because of a shortfall in domestic production, analysts and industry participants said on Tuesday. In a speech on Monday, Trump said he would impose tariffs on aluminum and copper – metals needed to produce U.S. military hardware – as well as steel, to entice producers to make them in the United States.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to See Sideways Action
By: Christopher Lewis | January 28, 2025
• The silver market continues to see a lot of sideways action, and at this point in time, the market is probably going to be in a bit of a “holding pattern” as we wait for the Federal Reserve meeting to be over on Wednesday. Silver continues to play “second fiddle” to the gold market as we see a lot of questions asked of the global economy.
Silver Technical Analysis
The silver market dipped a little bit during the early hours on Tuesday, but really at this point in time, we continue to see a lot of sideways action more than anything else. And I don’t really think you have a scenario where you need to get overly aggressive one way or another. But with this being said, I think you have a situation where traders are probably going to be looking at this as a market that is more or less a range bound market that you are looking to trade sideways.
Wednesday features the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and that will most certainly have a major influence on everything, including silver, as silver is highly sensitive to what happens in the interest rate markets. It’s worth noting that underneath we have the 200-day EMA as well as the $28.75 level offering support, and above we have the $31 level offering resistance. If we can get above the $31 level, the market could very well go looking at the $32.35 level.
And I do think that is a very real possibility, but right now, silver just seems sluggish. It looks to me like you’re better off with gold, and unfortunately, retail traders equate one with the other. They aren’t always the same market. They certainly aren’t now. So, it’s just more of a sideways grind here.
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1 month ago
Silver Bearish Signals Trigger
By: Bruce Powers | January 27, 2025
• Silver's failed rally and bearish flag pattern signal downside, with support at 28.75 and lower ABCD targets near 27.47 and 27.11 in focus.
Silver failed to sustain its recent rally on Monday as it fell below key near-term trend indicators before finding support at the day’s low of 29.70. There was a confluence of price levels that failed to hold as support, including a small trendline touching the January 14 interim swing low, the 20-Day MA at 3.12, and the 200-Day MA at 30.07. Since all three lines failed there is the potential for further selling. However, at the time of this writing natural gas is trading near or slightly above the 20-Day MA. It may end the day above it, which could be short-term bullish.
Lower Swing High is Potentially Bearish
Nevertheless, recent highs up to last Friday’s high at 31.03, which is also a weekly high, shows a failure of the bull breakout that occurred recently above the downtrend line and 50-Day MA. The advance ended around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 30.98. It began from a lower swing low in December that formed a double bottom pattern. Subsequently, a small parallel rising trend channel formed, which is a potential bear flag. Notice that it formed following a sharp decline from the December 12 swing high.
Bear Flag Pattern Triggers
Today’s drop shows provided the first bearish trigger for the flag pattern as trend support was broken. If there is further bearish confirmation another lower swing high will have formed. The dominant pattern is a bearish trend channel that started following the October high of $34.87 and it could exert its influence now that there have been clear signs of further weakness.
Further bearish confirmation will be indicated on another drop below the 20-Day MA, and then the interim higher swing low in the flat pattern at 29.50. A drop below that price level will provide a clearer bearish signal indicated a breakdown from the flag formation.
Lower Targets go to 27.11
Nevertheless, patterns don’t always follow through as they might support could be seen again around the December swing low at 28.75. A little lower is the 78.6% retracement level at 28.27. There are also two lower price targets from two declining ABCD patterns. One targets 27.47 (light blue) and the other 27.11 (purple).
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to See Choppy Trading
By: Christopher Lewis | January 27, 2025
• The silver market continues to look choppy overall, as we are looking at a major resistance barrier just above. The market will continue to be noisy, but I think there are a lot of questions out there. Silver will continue to be a dangerous place to be involved at the moment.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday, as we head towards the New York timeframe. The 50 day EMA seems to be offering a bit of resistance and of course, we also have the $31 level offering resistance, which of course is an area that has been important multiple times. If we could break above the $31 level, then I think we have a shot at this thing finally taking off towards $32.35 level.
With that being said, I do think that the market also has quite a bit of support right around the $29 level. So it’s really not until we break down below $28.75 that I think the market truly falls apart. I think we’re going sideways for a while and that does make a certain amount of sense considering there’s so much chaos in the world right now and silver is naturally volatile to begin with.
So with all of that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where you have to look at this as a sideways going nowhere market for the time being, but you could perhaps pay attention to the $28.75 level for a sign that we’re going much lower, and then perhaps pay attention to the $31 level as a sign that we could possibly go higher. Anything between those two levels probably remains noise, but short-term range bound traders might find this interesting.
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1 month ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 25, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31185 and is trading up about 6.64% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in January is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 31025 and overhead resistance forming above at 31575. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down from the week of December 9th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 4 weeks reaching a high during the week of January 13th at 31985. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 4.752% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 29145 as it has fallen back reaching only 30465 which still remains 4.529% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of January 13th reaching 31985 failed to exceed the previous high of 33330 made back during the week of December 9th in 2024. That rally amounted to only five weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29145 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to See Resistance
By: Christopher Lewis | January 24, 2025
• The silver market is getting close to the $31 level again, and at this point, I suspect that the markets will continue to see this an a very interesting place to be. Silver continues to struggle with the higher interest rates, the higher US dollar, and the concerns about tariffs slowing down industry.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has seen quite a bit of noisy behavior during the early hours on Friday, as we continue to try to break above the previous uptrend line that is now acting like resistance. It’s also worth noting that the $31 level comes into the picture as well, and you’ll have to be careful with that. If we can break above $31, then it opens up a much bigger move for silver, and it is worth noting that gold looks like it’s trying to break out, but silver, as you probably know, isn’t gold.
Some retail traders seem to think it is, that the two should be doing the same thing, but they’re not, they’re completely different markets. That being said, industrial demand is a question, interest rates are most certainly a question, and a strong US dollar certainly doesn’t help. I think at this point in time, we are still very much consolidating, but that $31 level on a daily close above it becomes interesting.
If we pull back from here, the $28.75 level is your floor. Expect a lot of choppy behavior, and quite frankly, I don’t think you should get overly aggressive here. It’s a matter of letting the market tell you what it’s going to do. Short-term back and forth trading, I suppose, is possible if you’re quick, but that’s the nature of the market at the moment, so if you’re looking for bigger moves, you’re probably going to be waiting.
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1 month ago
Silver Eyes Breakout as Bulls Defend Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | January 20, 2025
• Silver’s rally gains traction as bulls defend key levels, setting sights on a potential breakout above December highs, with support from bullish price structure and technical indicators.
Silver continued to test trend resistance at the start of the week as it dropped to find support at 29.99 before buyers took back control. The dip tested support around the 20-Day MA, now at 29.88, the neckline of a double bottom pattern, plus support represented by a small rising trendline. A breakout of the double bottom bullish reversal pattern triggered two weeks ago on a rally above 29.895.
What becomes obvious is that today’s low was a bit above the support zone. But notice the signs of strength following today’s bottom. What this would seem to indicate is that if silver continues to trade above today’s low and then shows signs of strength, the bullish price action shown today will have provided an early sign.
20-Day Line Turned Up
Further supporting a bullish thesis is the 20-Day MA as it began to turn up last week and is close to converging with the internal uptrend line and the double bottom neckline. When indicators come together to identify a similar price area, it is a sign from the market to pay attention. These bullish signs are fighting resistance represented by the top downtrend line that is the top line of a declining parallel trend channel.
Last week’s high at 30.98 is the top of a counter-trend rally following a second low on the last trading day of 2023. If that high can be exceeded, then silver will be triggering a continuation of the bullish counter-trend rally and increasing the possibility that it could subsequently take out the 32.33 swing high from earlier in December.
Breakout Above 33.33
A decisive advance above the December swing high of 33.33 would trigger a bullish reversal based on the price structure of lower swing lows. Two other points are interesting to consider as they come from observation of the weekly chart (not shown). Turns out that the second low of the double bottom pattern in December was 28.78. That decline was essentially a successful test of support at the 50-Week MA, currently at 29.14.
Silver has retained support above the 50-Week MA since it was reclaimed during the week of March 4, 2024. Further, last week’s high found resistance at the 20-Week MA, now at 31.10. That means that a breakout above the 30.98 trend high might quickly encounter potential resistance around 31.10. Or a continuation through that price will provide further evidence that the bulls retain control.
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1 month ago
Silver Struggles to Impress
By: Christopher Lewis | January 20, 2025
• The Monday session was influenced by the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday in the United States, and therefore the market is a bit thin. While there was some trading, the amount would have been smaller.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver was somewhat sluggish in the early hours of Monday, which of course was Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. So, the futures markets had limited hours. So, with that being the case, it is not a huge surprise to see that silver has done very little. That being said, it’s probably worth noting that the silver market is hanging around the 50-day EMA and in an area in the form of $30 that has been important multiple times in the past. So, the question is, can we find support at $30 to turn things around?
If we were to break down below the $30 level, then I think you get a shot at the silver market going down to the 200-day EMA and then down to the $28.75 level. If we can turn around and rally and break above the $31 level, then it’s possible that the $32.35 level could be targeted. But at this point in time, we would need to see something jump into the market psyche in order to make people want to start owning silver so heavily.
Quite frankly, interest rates around the world continue to be an issue, but with the Federal Reserve likely to stay a little bit tighter for longer, that is probably the biggest problem silver has right now. Furthermore, though, if we do get a global slowdown, it’s likely that the demand for silver could be somewhat sluggish also due to the industrial part of the equation. If I were to buy precious metals, I would prefer gold. I think silver will underperform at this point, although it’s not necessarily a short at this point either.
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1 month ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31141 and is trading up about 6.49% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. This price action here in January is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30700 and overhead resistance forming above at 31495. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down from the week of December 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 9.744%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29145 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 months ago
Silver Drops Below Key MAs, Bearish Continuation Looms
By: Bruce Powers | January 13, 2025
• A failed test of the 50-Day MA resistance confirms silver's downtrend, with potential for lower prices targeting 28.27 retracement and 27.11 ABCD pattern support, if bears remain in charge.
Silver turned back down from 50-Day MA resistance on Monday and fell to a five-day low of 29.50. The 20-Day MA at 29.77 failed to provide support and silver is set to close back below the 200-Day MA at 29.95, at the time of this writing. Today’s price action is bearish and may easily lead to lower prices. Nonetheless, it will depend on what happens next. Not only will silver likely close the day below the three moving averages but it will likely end the day in a bearish position, in the lower third of the day’s price range.
Signs of Bearish Reversal
A bearish reversal is signaled today, setting the stage for a possible continuation of the larger bear trend as outlined by the declining trend channel on the chart. Last Friday’s high at 30.66 left a bearish clue as that high was at resistance of the 50-Day MA. Then today’s price action confirmed the bearish implications as the 50-Day MA was previously representing support and it is now marking potential resistance.
It is important to point out that the relationship to the 50-Day line (C) shows increasing bearishness. Notice that the last test of resistance at the 50-Day MA in December saw the price of silver bust above the line for a few days before reversing lower. It didn’t get above it this time. Selling pressure was too much.
Downtrend in Force
Essentially, since the 50-Day line closely parallels the top downtrend line, a test of resistance near that line may have completed today, before it could be specifically touched. If so, the price of silver has realigned with the larger downtrend pattern, indicating a possible end to the bullish counter-trend rally. A drop below today’s low of 29.50 could lead to a test support near the recent swing low (double bottom) at 28.90.
But given the potential bearish continuation of the falling trend channel, lower price levels may be hit before the correction is complete. Either way, there is the 78.6% retracement at 28.27, and the initial target from a falling ABCD pattern at 27.11. At a minimum, a decisive decline below 28.90 also highlights the lower channel line as a potential support target.
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