By Carla Mozee
Mexican stocks finished slightly higher Friday after the
country's central bank cut its key interest rate in line with
expectations and signaled that its rate-easing campaign is nearing
an end.
The IPC equity index eked out a gain of 6.4 points to 25,741.96.
The advance was enough to stretch the benchmark's run of wins to
eight and post a weekly rise of 8.8%. The weekly gain was the
biggest since the week ended May 10.
On Friday, shares of interest-rate sensitive banks were mixed,
with Grupo Financiero Banorte up 1.9%, Grupo Financiero Inbursa
down 1.7% and microlender Compartamos down 0.8%.
Shares of America Movil (AMX), which have the heaviest weighting
on the equity index, dropped 1.9% and shares of fixed-line operator
Telefonos de Mexico (TMX) fell 0.9%.
Home building stocks, however, were higher, led by a 2.5% rise
in shares of Homex (HXM).
Rates on hold?
The Bank of Mexico reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25
basis points to 4.5%, in line with expectations of analysts polled
by Dow Jones Newswires. It was the seventh rate cut this year.
The size of July's cut was smaller than the cut of 50 basis
points delivered in June as inflation remains above the bank's
target. Policymakers also indicated that it is likely that they
will hold the key rate steady in the coming months.
"Inflation convergence is the key variable," wrote Flavia
Cattan-Naslausky, a currency strategist at RBS Securities in a note
Friday. "Expect a pause over the next 4-6 months at the
minimum."
Should inflation converge to 4% or below by the fourth quarter
and Mexico's currency is stable, "Banxico could cut rates below the
4.50% level to further boost domestic growth," said the
analyst.
The bank backed its forecast for inflation to reach about 4% by
year's end. It also expects inflation to near its target of 3% by
the end of 2010.
Annual inflation in June fell to 5.74% from the year-ago period,
down from 5.98% in May. Prices excluding food and energy costs fell
to 5.39% in June from 5.56% in the same period a year ago.
Policymakers have attempted to address their worries about
inflation alongside a sharp economic contraction. Mexican economic
activity has been struggling as its largest trading partner, the
U.S., wrestles with its own recession. A deadly outbreak earlier
this year of swine flu has put additional pressure on Latin
America's second-largest economy.
Economists polled by Mexico's central bank currently expect a
contraction of 6.3% in 2009.
The central bank also said Friday that it expects to see
recovery starting in the second half of the year. The currency
jumped 1.6%, fetching 13.327 pesos per U.S. dollar.
Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman
& Co, said in a note that in its view, "the Mexican economy
remains in a sorry state, and further [rate] easing is
warranted."
The peso also found support from a better-than-anticipated rise
in U.S. housing starts in June, another signal that the country's
housing slump may be leveling out.
"The peso may get a short-term boost from the shift in interest
rate expectations, but when the dust settles, there's not much to
get excited about in Mexico," said Thin, who said it would "use
this recent peso rally to re-establish long dollar positions."
He noted that the peso is up less than 2% on a year-to-date
basis against the greenback.
Elsewhere, Brazil's Bovespa index rose 0.3% to 52,072.49, its
third straight session for gains. The index finished up 5.8% for
the week, its biggest gain since early May.
Shares of oil giant Petrobras (PBR) rose 1.8% and Vale (RIO)
picked up 0.3%.
The miner said it's focusing on organic growth of its fertilizer
business, and has not issued an offer to purchase fertilizer
assets. On Thursday, local newspaper Estado de S. Paulo said Vale
was considering a $25 million bid to acquire fertilizer producer
Mosaic Co. (MOS).
Argentina's Merval reversed course and lost 0.3% to close at
1,623.43 on Friday. It surged 9.9% on a weekly basis, the biggest
percentage increase since the week ended May 8.
Chile's IPSA on Friday shed 2 points to 3,207.80, and finished
the holiday-shortened week up 4.1%.