WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and
CHICAGO, April 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Producer
sentiment weakened slightly in late winter, according to the March
Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy
Barometer reading. The barometer, which is based on a survey of 400
U.S. agricultural producers, declined 3 points to a reading of 133,
down from 136 in February.
"This month's drop is largely due to producers' weaker outlook
regarding future economic conditions in agriculture and, in some
cases, stress regarding their farm's future financial performance,"
said James Mintert, the barometer's
principal investigator and director of Purdue
University's Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The Index of Future Expectations dropped 6 points, down from a
reading of 145 to 139, while the Index of Current Conditions
remained relatively unchanged at 120.
Financial stress continues to be a concern in the production
agriculture sector. When asked about their financial performance
expectations for 2019 compared to the previous year, 59 percent of
producers expect their farm's performance to be "about the same,"
and 21 percent actually expect "better," financial performance;
however, 20 percent of producers said they expect their farm's
performance to be "worse than" in 2018. Responding to a separate
question, just over half (52 percent) of respondents indicated they
are less optimistic about their farm's financial future compared to
a year earlier.
To learn more about financial conditions on U.S. farms,
Purdue researchers asked producers
about their operating debt, both in the January and March 2019 surveys. Results suggest that 5 to as
much as 7 percent of U.S. farms are suffering from some financial
stress, using the need to carryover unpaid operating debt as a
financial stress indicator. In March, of the 22 percent of farms
that expect to have a larger operating loan in 2019, just over one
in five said it was the result of carrying over a previous year's
unpaid operating debt.
In contrast to the concerns expressed about financial
performance in the March survey, producers seem more optimistic
about the future of agriculture exports. Only 8 percent of
producers in the March survey said they expect agriculture exports
to decrease in the next 5 years. Meanwhile, 68 percent expect
exports to increase, which was the most optimistic perspective on
agricultural exports provided by farmers since the Purdue researchers began posing questions on
exports in May 2017. With respect to
the trade dispute with China, 77
percent of producers were confident that it will be resolved in a
way that benefits U.S. agriculture; however, less than half expect
the trade situation with China to
be resolved before July 1.
Read the full March Ag Economy Barometer report at
http://purdue.edu/agbarometer. The report includes insights into
producers' attitudes toward farmland values and making large farm
investments. The site also offers additional resources, such as
past reports, charts and survey methodology, and a form to sign up
for monthly barometer email updates and webinars. Each month Dr.
Mintert also provides an in-depth analysis of the barometer. That
video can be viewed at http://purdue.ag/barometervideo.
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index
of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal
under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and
AGECFTEX.
About the Purdue University
Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial
Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development
and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural
Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute
research and educational programs that address the different needs
of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading and most
diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com)
enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets,
optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market
participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture
opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global
benchmark products across all major asset classes based
on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign
exchange, energy, agricultural
products and metals. The company offers futures and
options on futures trading through the CME Globex® platform, fixed
income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the
EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's
leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME
Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and
services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group
also offers optimization and reconciliation services through
TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.
CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange,
Globex, and, E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board
of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York
Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York
Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity
Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are
trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB,
and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones
Industrial Average, S&P 500 and S&P are service and/or
trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard &
Poor's Financial Services LLC and S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as
the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago
Mercantile Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the
property of their respective owners.
Writer: Kami Goodwin,
765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu
Source: Jim Mintert,
765-494-4310, jmintert@purdue.edu
Related website:
Purdue
University Center for Commercial Agriculture:
http://purdue.edu/commercialag
CME Group: http://www.cmegroup.com/
Photo Caption: Farms showing financial stress, producers
express concern about future conditions. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)
A publication-quality photo is available at
https://news.uns.purdue.edu/images/2019/march-barometer.jpg
CME-G
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SOURCE CME Group