badgerkid
8 hours ago
Sunman, let me continue on this vein. What is Iovance worth today should BP wish to acquire it? What is its terminal value? What will IOVA be trading at 1 year from now assuming they continue to meet or even slightly beat their guidance numbers. What is Iovance worth to BP if and when nsclc TIL is approved? What will IOVA be trading at after European approval is announced? How about one year after European approval is announced, along with Australia, Canada, and other foreign markets?
I'm not telling anyone when to buy a stock, I'm pointing out what I believe will be a significant winner in the coming years regardless the current share price. At $10, it's cheap. At $6, it's crazy cheap. At $3, the entire market is broken and it becomes a wild west for traders.
You and I both know full well that IOVA is getting killed by algos and the biotech sector being out of favor. It's not the result of some secret conspiracy being waged against Iovance alone. And it's certainly not because Iovance isn't succeeding. They are. Without relevant news, IOVA will continue to languish until order is restored to biotechs or some newsworthy information is released about Iovance specifically. Even assuming a mediocre return to average valuations in biotech, and with the conservative expectations offered in Iovance guidance for 2025, what will IOVA be trading at going into next year? Higher or lower? Answer honestly. Everyone here knows my answer.
You're not happy with your investing at this time? Who is? Will you be happy with your decisions one year from now? I fully believe I will be.
I get it, you're trading a stock, you want to maximize your investment dollars. But what if you're just a casual investor looking for a place to invest a few dollars and you're looking for a good growth company with a promising future? Is IOVA a good purchase right now? Does it fit that category? If I buy IOVA and put it in my IRA, will it look good 2 years from now? 10 years from now? 20 years? Neither one of us knows for sure, but I see what Iovance is doing and I believe they are a company to be reckoned with and they're going to be instrumental in improving cancer care significantly. Does that mean their stock value will go up? Yeah, probably. Tell me one place that you can invest your money where you can't lose? Spoiler alert, there is no such place.
This is not just a board for day traders, nor is it a board that necessarily needs to be reminded that things are tough in biotechs without a corresponding discussion about future value and potential. I have confidence that many investors and day traders can and hopefully do think for themselves. I also wish to share information that benefits the decisions that other investors may make regarding Iovance.
***And even more importantly, I want everyone to think of Iovance when their friends, their loved ones, or even they get that cancer diagnosis and they want to know all of their options. The word is just barely getting around now and we have a long way to go for everyone to have access to this treatment in the event that it's the best option for their specific type of cancer.
I believe Iovance will be a significant company in cancer treatment options. I have no qualms about buying IOVA at any of the prices we've seen over the past year as I expect that IOVA will be significantly higher in the coming years.
I want Iovance to succeed for all kinds of reasons, including my own selfish reason for profit on my investment.
BK
badgerkid
14 hours ago
FWIW, to all of you who don't like the optimism of others, so be it. I'm on the other side of the track, I'm growing tired of all the pessimism around the biotech sector and all the complaints by day traders who don't accept the risk of what they're doing with their money.
The biotech sector is a minefield right now, and many have finally surrendered and limped away as evidenced in the price action. I'll continue to selectively buy shares in companies that I see as ultimate winners.
I guarantee I will not time the market very well and my purchases would sicken all those day traders that expect daily gains and nothing but wins. I will not look like the sharpest tool in the trading shed, but one year, two years, even three years and beyond, I expect to still be excited about my stock purchases and my eventual gains.
At any time, the market could fall in love with a stock like IOVA, I prefer to own it when it does.
Good luck to my fellow investors.
badgerkid
15 hours ago
Hicham, I'm still on this ride with you.
To all, looking at outside evidence of where IOVA is relative to XBI and LABU, I challenge you all to go look at the 5 year comparison, the 1 year comparison, and even the 3 month and 1 month. What you'll find is that the game keeps taking IOVA back to the median with a tendency more toward a tie with LABU. This is why trading a stock like IOVA is so challenging (as is all trading for that matter and why most day traders lose money), you're trying to compete against computer trading and all those algos. I'm an investor who tries to focus on fundaments, but I accept that there's a lot of outside pressures that have nothing to do with the company per se.
Yes, current share price stinks, but Iovance is still building a fantastic business and delivering a winning new cancer treatment based on the testimony of thousands of people in the oncology sector. The share price doesn't reflect it yet, but it will. I can be excited about what Iovance has to offer and accept at the same time that the market value doesn't necessarily jibe with what we see as future value. In time, it will, but knowing the when is far more challenging than knowing if.
I'm ultimately responsible for my own trading decisions as are each of you. I see what's coming for Iovance. I don't know for certain when the market value will be more reflective of IOVA's fair value based on what we expect for future revenues, but I'm confident it will.
The biotech sector has been a bear and despite all that we expect for this company, IOVA still trades with the sector as well and as such has fallen out of favor. I expect the company to be wildly successful, but the market hasn't gotten to that point yet. In time, it will. If the ride is too rough, you all have control over your own investments. Your money, your rules. Buy, hold, or sell, it's your decision on what to do with your money. You can base your decision on what others may say, but that is still your decision. My money, my rules, and my decision was to buy more and hold.
Some see me as a cheerleader - I am and I'm excited for TIL therapy to continue in it's market penetration. It is one big step forward for improving cancer treatment. Iovance has many more big steps coming. The company's success will prove to be a reward to shareholders and even more importantly a potential improvement or cure for 10's of thousands of cancer patients that were running out of options.
Good luck to the longs.
badgerkid
2 days ago
GMH, IOVA has required some thick skin and an occasional shot of something strong, and not always to celebrate. Here's hoping for some celebratory reasons soon, but in the meantime and to your point, the entire sector feels a bit broken right now and with it, IOVA.
Other than the price, nothing has changed in my reasons to own IOVA and build a larger position, my impeccable timing on my buys certainly could have been better.
Good luck.
badgerkid
6 days ago
Sunman, why the fearmongering? IOVA and many biotechs continue to track closely with the sector.
Biotechs have been a bit out of favor over several years. Lots of great companies are sitting at low share prices including Iovance. Lots of bargains out there but there's still uncertainty of when the sector will turn around. The 10 year is also adding pressure. Throw some A.I. into a pill, and you'd be rolling in cash.
When comparing XBI with IOVA, it's fairly well matched since Amtagvi approval with a few momentary exceptions of news driven price reactions. Now that Iovance is producing revenue, investors are looking for indications of when it will be profitable. It's possible that we'll see our first profitable quarter by Q4 of this year. IOVA has not moved up as many, including me, expected over this initial period of commercialization. That said, I see numerous reasons to remain invested in IOVA for what continues to be great growth in the coming months and years. When I compare IOVA to similar stocks, the picture looks the same. No worries at this time regardless the current share price.
Good luck to the longs - no idea if this applies to you, Sunman.
badgerkid
3 weeks ago
Merck has spent a lot of money trying to protect exclusivity of Keytruda. More of their attempts have been tossed onto the scrap heap. Their combo with Iovance's Amtagvi is still one of their best hopes for continuing with their cash cow Keytruda. Here's some of the latest victims and failures: https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/merck-discontinue-vibostolimab-favezelimab-TIGIT-LAG3/735714/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Newsletter%20Weekly%20Roundup:%20BioPharma%20Dive:%20Daily%20Dive%2012-21-2024&utm_term=BioPharma%20Dive%20Weekender
"Merck calls quits on two immunotherapies for cancer:
Published Dec.16, 2024, Jonathan Gardner, Senior Reporter
The company is scrapping two drugs aimed at targets called TIGIT and LAG-3, both of which were in the middle of Phase 3 testing.
Merck & Co. has long been dominant in cancer immunotherapy, with its drug Keytruda earning 40 approvals en route to becoming the worldโs best-selling medicine. But the New Jersey-based drugmaker has had difficulty finding a successor, and a Monday announcement is the latest evidence..."
Amtagvi with Keytruda is at least one very good option for Merck in giving some hope to avoiding the patent cliff that is just in front of them for Keytruda.
Good luck to the longs.
badgerkid
3 weeks ago
FWIW, today's triple witching will be behind us at the end of the day. I do see calmer waters ahead with some definite upside coming.
This year did not close out as hoped nor as expected. IOVA isn't even close to what I had anticipated. But to your point, I wasn't planning on selling a single share anyway, so waiting was already part of my plan. All still remains on track for success, so no reason to go anywhere and I continue to add a few shares as funds allow at this bargain prices.
The election gave us that initial excitement, but there's a lot of moving parts which the markets are still trying to figure out. Good luck.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-next-test-fed-190145704.html
badgerkid
3 weeks ago
"If I Could Only Buy 3 Stocks in the Last Month of 2024, I'd Pick These"
FWIW, Iovance made the MFer's list: https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/19/if-i-could-only-buy-3-stocks-in-the-last-month-of/
"3. Iovance Biotherapeutics
Finally, add Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) to your list of stocks to buy in the last month of 2024. It's not a household name -- at least, not yet. But 2025 could be the year this company moves into the spotlight, pushing its stock higher as a result.
Just as its name suggests, Iovance is a biopharma company. Its flagship drug is a skin cancer treatment called Amtagvi. Like many other biopharma stocks of its ilk, this one's been ebbing and flowing ever since the therapy first started showing promise years ago, well before it won its first FDA approval in February of this year.
The problem? By the time that long-anticipated approval materialized, investors had lost interest. Shares are down more than 50% from that news-driven February peak, and knocking on the door of a new 52-week low.
You can use this unlikely disconnect between the drug's developmental progress and Iovance stock by stepping into a new position when the company's growth prospects have never been more promising.
Iovance's expected revenue of between $160 million and $165 million for the fiscal year ending this month is expected to roll in at somewhere between $450 million and $475 million in the coming year. Most of that growth will come from Amtagvi, one of only two drugs the company makes and markets. While this still won't drag Iovance Biotherapeutics out of the red and into the black, it does put the company on pace to swing to a profit in 2027. And as veteran investors can attest, sometimes progress toward profitability is enough in and of itself in the meantime.
There's still above-average risk here, to be sure. But cancer-fighting Amtagvi is the real deal with real potential. Although it's only approved for one use right now, it's currently being tested in 12 other drug trials. Investment research outfit GlobalData says enough of these trials will pan out to potentially produce annual revenue in excess of $1 billion by 2030. A bunch of other investors could finally start to see and believe in this possibility beginning in the coming year, as Iovance reports a few more quarters of strong growth."
This is a comfortably conservative estimate for what's to come. Many here believe these numbers will likely be significantly beat with Q4 of 2025 possibly being the first Q in the black, well ahead of these estimates above.
IOVA lost its momentum going into the end of the year with the entire biotech sector. This has provided a great entry point or add point for those who wish to take a position or to add on. I've increased my position significantly due to this extreme pullback.
Investing in biotechs is not for the faint of heart. Good luck to the longs.