Some people are leaving risky areas because
they’re worried about air quality, but many are moving because
they’ve been priced out; home prices in high risk metros are 65%
higher than prices in low risk metros
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Places facing high risk from poor air quality
are losing residents faster than they used to, while places with
low risk are gaining residents faster than they used to, according
to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered
real estate brokerage.
In 2021-2022, 1.2 million more people moved out of than into
U.S. metros facing high risk from poor air quality, more than
double the net outflow of the prior two years. Meanwhile, low risk
metros saw 1 million more people move in than out, nearly double
the net inflow of the prior two years.
This is according to a Redfin analysis of domestic migration
data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and air quality risk scores from
First Street, which house hunters can now view on Redfin.com
listings. First Street assigns nearly every U.S. home a risk
rating—minimal, minor, moderate, major, severe or extreme. For this
report, a “high risk” metro is one where at least 10% of properties
fall into the major, severe or extreme categories, and a “low risk”
metro is one where less than 10% of properties fall into those
categories. First Street’s rating system is based on the number of
poor air quality days expected annually today and in 30 years. It
includes two common pollutants: Particulate matter (PM2.5), which
often comes from wildfire smoke, and ozone (O3), which occurs when
pollutants react with heat/sunlight.
“Deciding where to live is all about prioritization. With
housing costs hovering near their record high, the top priority for
many homebuyers is getting a good deal,” said Redfin Chief
Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Even when homebuyers do consider
climate change, poor air quality often isn’t top of mind because
it’s not as visibly destructive as hazards like flooding and fires.
But as the dangers of climate change intensify, we will likely see
more people factor air quality and other disaster risks into their
decisions about where to settle down.”
High risk metros are concentrated in expensive Western states
like California, which has been plagued by smoke from intensifying
wildfires in recent years. The median home sale price in high risk
metros was $563,710 as of December, 65% higher than the $341,483
median sale price in low risk metros.
A Redfin-commissioned survey fielded in May-June found that 9%
of recent U.S. home sellers cited concerns about climate change as
a reason for their move. Other reasons were more common. The top
three answers were more space (31%), proximity to family (24%) and
getting a better deal on a home (20%).
The number of poor air quality days in the Western U.S. surged
by as much as 477% between 2000 and 2021, in large part due to
wildfire smoke, according to a First Street analysis of data from
the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This has reversed some
of the air quality progress the U.S. made through federal and local
regulatory policies in the 20th century, and is also putting many
Americans’ health at risk. The Biden Administration last week
tightened standards for deadly air pollution, targeting PM2.5,
which comes from factories and power plants in addition to
wildfires.
There are roughly 14 million U.S. properties (about 10% of all
properties) that are estimated to have at least a week of poor air
quality per year due to PM2.5 today, and almost 6 million of those
face at least two weeks. Some places grapple with months of
unhealthy air. Fresno, CA is expected to have over two months of
poor air quality in a bad year under current environmental
conditions, and more than three months 30 years from now, primarily
due to wildfire smoke.
From 2000 to 2023, an average of nearly 7 million acres burned
in U.S. wildfires each year, up from roughly 3 million from 1983 to
1999, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. All but
one of the 10 costliest U.S. wildfires occurred in California,
according to data as of 2022, though fires are becoming more common
in other regions.
People Are Leaving the American West, Which Is Smoky and
Expensive
The American West has seen scores of people move out in recent
years, and while that’s partly due to wildfires and smoke, the
region’s high cost of living is likely the primary driver.
There are 13 major U.S. metros where over 85% of homes face high
risk from poor air quality. All of them are in the West, with nine
in California and the rest in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. Over
two-thirds of those metros saw more people move out than in during
2021-2022, and 3% of homes for sale across those metros last year
were affordable for the typical local homebuyer, on average.
There are 57 major metros where no homes face high risk from
poor air quality. Nearly all of them (93%) are located outside of
the West, and a majority (54%) saw more people move in than out in
2021-2022. On average, 19% of homes for sale across those metros
last year were affordable for the typical local homebuyer. While
that's low, it’s over six times higher than the share in high risk
metros.
“Dense American cities have some of the worst air quality, but
not everyone can actually afford to leave—even if the city they
live in is expensive,” Fairweather said. “If you work remotely,
it’s often easy to chase greener pastures. But if you’re in a line
of work that requires you to clock in in person every day—and those
jobs often pay less—you may not have the means or flexibility to
relocate.”
High Risk Often Overlaps With High Home Prices
Washington state is one example of a place that has been plagued
by both poor air quality from wildfires and exorbitant housing
costs, driving many people away. In the Seattle metro area, where
100% of homes face high risk from poor air quality, 55,092 more
people moved out than in during 2021-2022. That’s a reversal from
2019-2020, when 2,510 more people moved in than out. At $750,000,
Seattle has the eighth highest median home sale price among major
U.S. metros; just 3% of homes for sale last year were affordable
for the typical local buyer, down from 5% in 2022.
Pierce County, WA, which is just south of Seattle and includes
both the city of Tacoma and Mount Rainier National Park, is
expected to post the nation’s largest increase in poor air quality
days over the next three decades. By 2054, First Street expects
Pierce County to face 43 days of orange+ air quality per year—up
from 31 today—primarily due to PM2.5 pollution. The Tacoma metro
saw more people move out than in during 2021-2022, a reversal from
the prior two years, amid a surge in home prices.
Skyrocketing housing costs during the pandemic priced many
people out of the Seattle area, but some residents, including
Redfin’s own chief economist, have moved away because wildfires
have worsened.
Fairweather left Seattle in 2020 to escape wildfire smoke and
moved to Wisconsin. It was free from smoke for the first few years
she was there, but in June was inundated with unhealthy smoke from
Canadian wildfires.
“There’s no such thing as a climate haven,” Fairweather said.
“Climate change is making its mark everywhere on Earth. The Midwest
may be protected from sea level rise, but it’s still vulnerable to
storms, heat waves, drought and now smoke. The best thing
homeowners can do is be prepared: Do your research on which climate
dangers impact your area and what investments you can make to
insulate your family and home from those risks.”
Bad air quality in the West isn’t only fueled by wildfires. Los
Angeles, for example, is also at risk from O3. Los Angeles County
is expected to have three weeks (21 days) of orange+ air quality
this year due to O3—the third highest in the U.S.—and 27 days by
2054. The Los Angeles metro area saw 337,757 more people move out
than in from 2021-2022. That’s the second highest net outflow in
the country (partly due to population size) and is up from a net
outflow of 211,756 during the prior two years. Los Angeles is the
fifth most expensive metro for U.S. homebuyers, with a median sale
price of $850,000.
Low Risk Doesn’t Mean No Risk
While “high” risk from poor air quality is concentrated in the
West, which has seen an exodus of residents in recent years, other
parts of the U.S. are also at risk. Many of these areas have seen
their populations swell, and are vulnerable to numerous climate
dangers.
The metros that saw the highest net in-migration in 2021-2022
are Phoenix, Dallas, Tampa, FL, Austin, TX, San Antonio and North
Port, FL. While no homes in those metros face “high” risk from poor
air quality, it doesn’t mean they face no risk at all. For example,
100% of homes in Dallas fall into First Street’s minimal, minor or
moderate risk categories. In terms of number of fires, Texas
actually ranked highest in 2022, and the state has grappled with
both extreme heat and extreme cold in recent years. In Phoenix,
there’s a dire water shortage. And in Tampa and North Port,
flooding, storms and the disappearance of insurance coverage are
major concerns.
A separate Redfin analysis found that the most flood-prone U.S.
counties saw 384,000 more people move in than out in 2021 and
2022—a 103% increase from the prior two years—as high risk places
like Florida exploded in popularity. Flood-prone metros are often
relatively affordable, unlike many of the metros endangered by
unhealthy air quality.
To view the full report, including charts, a metro-level summary
and methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/wildfire-risk-migration-air-factor/
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We
also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our
home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our
lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers
selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix
up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers
millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent.
Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee,
subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly
charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
$1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across
the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240212264462/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Isabelle Novak, 414-861-5861
press@redfin.com
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