Pending home sales are down and new listings
are flat during a time of year when they typically rise. But this
week’s softer-than-expected inflation report sent mortgage rates
down, which could bring back some homebuyers and sellers.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —Pending home sales fell 4.3% from a year earlier
during the four weeks ending May 12, the biggest decline in roughly
three months. That’s according to a new report from Redfin
(redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Pending
home sales also posted a week-over-week decline, unusual for early
May.
Inventory is losing momentum, too, as would-be sellers stay put
to hang onto their low mortgage rate. New listings rose 10% year
over year, but they were essentially flat from a week earlier,
which is significant because listings typically increase this time
of year.
The housing market slumped because of sky-high housing costs.
The median U.S. home-sale price is up 4.7% year over year to a
record $386,951, and the median monthly mortgage payment is sitting
at $2,858, just $26 shy of the all-time high set in April. But
affordability is starting to improve a bit: Daily average mortgage
rates have steadily declined since the start of May, and this
week’s slightly softer-than-expected inflation report sent rates
below 7% for the first time in over five weeks. And 6.3% of home
sellers are dropping their price, on average, the highest share in
a year and a half, which may mean price growth loses momentum
soon.
“High prices and rates are challenging, but there are ways for
buyers to take advantage of the somewhat slow market,” said Marsha
McMahon-Jones, a Redfin Premier agent in Palm Springs, CA. “Sellers
know that high mortgage rates mean they should expect negotiations,
expect offers to come in under list price, and be ready for some
back and forth on things like repairs and closing costs. Buyers may
not be able to get a lower mortgage rate, but they’re often getting
homes for slightly less than the asking price. It’s also a good
time to buy a fixer-upper at a lower price point because those
aren’t selling as quickly.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including
more on how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates,
please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.99% (May 15)
Down from a 5-month high of 7.52% three
weeks earlier
Up from 6.55%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
7.09% (week ending May 9)
Down from 5-month high of 7.22% a week
earlier
Up from 6.35%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Declined 2% from a week earlier (as of
week ending May 10)
Down 14%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Lowest level in 2 months (as of week
ending May 12)
Down 13%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure
of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin
agents
Touring activity
Up 5% from the start of the year (as of
May 13)
At this time last year, it was up 21% from
the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Down 8% from a month earlier (as of May
13)
Down 15%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending May
12, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending May 12, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$386,951
4.7%
All-time high
Median asking price
$418,455
6.6%
All-time high
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,858 at a 7.09% mortgage
rate
12.7%
Just $26 below all-time high set
during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
90,457
-4.3%
Biggest decline since 4 weeks
ending Feb. 25
New listings
102,269
10%
Active listings
890,224
14.2%
Months of supply
3.2
+0.5 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
45.2%
Down from 49%
Median days on market
33
+2 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
30.8%
Down from 33%
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.3%
+2 pts.
Highest level since Nov. 2022
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.4%
Unchanged
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending May 12, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Detroit (18.8%)
Anaheim, CA (18.6%)
West Palm Beach, FL (16.2%)
San Jose, CA (13.6%)
Newark, NJ (11.7%)
San Antonio (-0.5%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (16.6%)
Anaheim, CA (9.2%)
San Francisco (5.3%)
Newark, NJ (5.2%)
Sacramento, CA (3%)
Phoenix (-14.9%)
Atlanta (-13.6%)
Houston (-13.2%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-11.8%)
Nashville, TN (-11.1%)
Increased in 15 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (40.2%)
Seattle (26.4%)
Phoenix (24.7%)
Oakland, CA (24.6%)
Montgomery County, PA (21.9%)
Chicago (-8.1%)
Atlanta (-3.4%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Virginia Beach, VA (-1.9%)
Newark, NJ (-1.6%)
Warren, MI (-1.1%)
Declined in 6 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-dip-sales-decline
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240516365280/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
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