By Dan Gallagher
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Investors in GameStop Corp. may
have panicked earlier this month on the news that Amazon.com was
entering into the used video-game space, but a new study suggests
that the slumping economy may help make room for plenty of
competitors in the market.
On March 5, Amazon announced a new service through which
customers could trade in used video games through its site, in
exchange for store credit.
The news immediately caused a sharp sell-off on shares of
GameStop (GME), a Grapevine, Texas-based retail chain that
specializes in video-game sales and derives nearly half of its
gross profit from the sale of used games. GameStop saw its stock
drop more than 20% in the two days following the announcement.
However, according to a report Tuesday from Electronic
Entertainment Design and Research, a market research firm that
focuses on the video-game market, GameStop is unlikely to see much
of its core business threatened by the far larger online retail
giant.
"Based upon our research, we believe Amazon's used program will
be both successful and profitable," the report read. "We also
believe that most of Amazon's new business will come from the
expansion of the used video game software market rather than from
stealing market share from competitors like GameStop, Game Rush,
EBay, or Game Crazy."
Amazon does not break out specifics of its video-game business.
Sales of media products -- which include books, games DVDs and
music -- totaled nearly $11.1 billion last year, more than half of
the company's total revenue base.
GameStop said it expects revenue for the year ended Jan. 30 to
total about $8.8 billion, based on preliminary data announced last
month. Full results are scheduled for March 26.
According to the EEDAR report, GameStop is likely to retain its
advantage in the used market with core gamers, who often use the
company's stores to trade in older titles to get credit on new
releases when they come out. As Amazon will be unable to match that
sort of "instant gratification," its own service is more likely to
appeal to people seeking credit for other types of merchandise.
Amazon may also do well with customers who need to turn in games
because they are tight on cash during the economic slump, the
report said.
"We believe there are considerable quantities of consumers --
especially in today's economy -- who are low on funds, but are too
embarrassed to do in-person trade-ins," the study read.
Other analysts are confident that GameStop can maintain its
business against competition from Amazon and others.
"We note that Amazon [and eBay] have sold pre-owned video games
for years through its third-party marketplace," wrote Colin
Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets in a March 5 note.
"Importantly, we believe GameStop still offers a unique in-store
value proposition for core gamers, and believe that its pre-owned
business should continue to thrive."
The slowing economy also fuels retailers looking to expand their
profit margins. Gross margins on the sale of used games often tops
50% compared to just 20% for new titles, the study said. Toy
retailer Toys R' Us has also announce plans to enter the used-game
market.
The expansion of the used market is not welcome news to
video-game publishers such as Electronic Arts (ERTS), Activision
Blizzard (ATVI), THQ Inc. (THQI) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO).
But the EEDAR study notes that until video games can move to an
all-digital distribution channel, publishers will be forced to
maintain good relationships with retail companies.
"The unfortunate truth for video game publishers and developers
is that retailers are in the driver's seat," the report read. "With
retailer's commanding control of the video game retail environment,
there is little that publishers or developers can do to curtail the
sale of used video games in the short-term."