TAKING THE PULSE: European semiconductor companies will be
hoping the worst of the slump may be over after Intel Corp. (INTC),
the world's largest chip maker, recently indicated that sales of
personal computers bottomed out during the first quarter.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) also reported a surprise gain in net income
for its second fiscal quarter Wednesday, as sales of the company's
iPod and iPhone products came in ahead of expectations.
Still, chip companies may have some time to wait for a full
recovery. Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) chief financial officer Chris
Liddell said Thursday he sees no immediate letup in the difficult
trading environment, warning that it will persist through this
quarter and "potentially through the calendar year."
Evidence of the rapid decline is consumer demand for electronic
products that rely on microchips is everywhere.
Swiss computer peripherals maker Logitech International SA
(LOGI) Thursday reported its first quarterly loss in a decade as
earnings were hit by weak demand, destocking and a restructuring
charge, and it also forecast a loss for the current quarter;
Netherlands-based navigation device maker TomTom NV (TOM2.AE)
Wednesday declined to reiterate its guidance, and sales of mobile
handsets are forecast to contract significantly this year.
Analysts caution that destocking will continue through the first
six months of the year and say it is too early to call a sustained
recovery in the European semiconductor sector, where results for
the March quarter are expected to be weak.
Dutch ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AE), a key supplier of chip-making
equipment to Intel, already posted a net loss due to a collapse in
demand in the chip market, although it said it expects a
"normalized pattern" of demand in the second half.
Some shares have rallied in recent weeks, among them Infineon
Technologies AG (IFX). The German semiconductor firm saw its shares
hit a low of EUR0.39 in March, but has quadrupled its market
capitalization since then.
STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) also traded at a 52-week low of
EUR2.97 at the start of March but it, too, has recovered
markedly.
Still, two weeks ago STMicroelectronics said it would cut its
2008 dividend by two-thirds, citing the unstable market.
Meanwhile, companies' cash positions will be closely watched,
for example U.K.-based Wolfson Microelectronics PLC (WLF.LN).
Analysts note that Infineon's principal source of cash generation,
the industrial/automotive business, is loss making with no evidence
of improvement in end markets.
COMPANIES TO WATCH
-- ASM International N.V. (ASMI)-- (Apr. 28)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: First quarter sales could be down 37%
quarter on quarter at EUR96 million below consensus of EUR115
million, JP Morgan expects. It cites weak orders, with front end
sales down 45% while back end sales could slump 29% compared with
previous quarter. ASMI consists of a front-end division, which
makes equipment to produce semiconductors, and a back-end division
which assembles and packages the chips.
MAIN FOCUS: While weak front end operations won't be a surprise,
given the overall sector performance, slumping back end earnings
would be a significant set back as they form the bulk of ASMI's
cash generation. In January ASMI said it would book a EUR25 million
to EUR30 million restructuring charge in 2009, as it aims for a
leaner front-end division.
-- Wolfson Microelectronics PLC -- (Apr. 29)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Citigroup expects first quarter sales of
GBP23 million, down over 50% year-on-year, in what is seasonally a
weak quarter. Depressed revenue could also mean the company reports
lower cashflow in the quarter, although Citigroup believes the
company's restructuring efforts and favorable currency will allow
it to avoid cash burn for the full year.
MAIN FOCUS: The market will focus on the group's cash position
and whether new product development deadlines have been met.
Wolfson has invested heavily in new designs of its audio products
and an update on the rate of design wins will be welcomed.
-- ARM Holdings PLC (ARM.LN)-- (Apr. 29)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: JP Morgan expects first quarter revenue of
GBP87.6 million, up from GBP67.9 million last year. ARM's reported
revenues will benefit from a weak sterling versus the dollar but
the market will be watching the group's underlying performance as
the economic slowdown begins to impact earnings.
MAIN FOCUS: ARM's royalty revenue is paid a quarter in arrears
so visibility into the second quarter will be keenly watched for
signs of the impact of the slump in consumer electronic demand. And
the downturn is expected to affect licensing revenue as customers
stick to older licenses rather than plan for new products.
-- STMicroelectronics N.V.-- (Apr. 29)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts believe sales are likely to have
improved in the first quarter and expect the company to guide to
improving sales in the second quarter as orders seem to have picked
up due to restocking and an improvement in end demand in China.
However, analysts say they don't see a great improvement in the
group's gross margin yet due notably to high inventory at the end
of the fourth quarter.
MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will eye any comments on outlook and
possible further cost cutting measures. Many analysts believe the
company will have to cut costs further to weather the downturn.
Analysts will also eye any update on the wireless chip
technology joint venture with Telefon AB LM Ericsson (ERIC). "This
is the only real worry at this stage as the impact of this joint
venture is still unknown," noted one analyst.
-- Infineon Technologies AG -- (Apr. 30)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Infineon's wireless operations may have
performed better in the March quarter than previously guided,
though industrial and automotive operations will likely have
remained weak, analysts say. JP Morgan expects the sales decline to
be greater than the company's guidance of 10%.
MAIN FOCUS: Infineon has to refinance its debt so the company's
cash situation is still under close scrutiny, Deutsche Bank analyst
say. However, JP Morgan attributes Infineon's share-price rally to
hopes the German government could bail out the company if
necessary.
-By Archibald Preuschat, Dow Jones Newswires, +49 211 138 7218,
archibald.preuschat@dowjones.com
(Ruth Bender in Paris and Kathy Sandler in London contributed to
this item.)