brandemarcus
10 years ago
That's the question I was hoping you could provide the answer to. I will try and search the 2010 court settlement that I think all 3 companies were a party to, which settled their obligations from 60 or more years ago related to past lead and zinc mining on their properties.
My point is given the state of the resource market, one could buy up these shell companies. Then one nails down the cash that some Canadian jrs are a wasting and then ties down the potential resource in potash , phosphate, uranium , copper, silver or something else until the bull move ended in 2011 begins again.
sanbrunobaby
10 years ago
Interesting discussion. To me CHMN and RVN two plays on silver but different plays. Probably a place for both in a portfolio.
In response : I see no reason to doubt 3 NI43-101 reports quote of 50 million ounces at Chester. Plus keep in mind neither Sunshine Mining or Sterling made any big effort to increase underground resources. At the Sunshine according to the NI43-101 reports and Sunshine Mining reports grades on Chester ground increased at depth. So resource could very well be much higher. Second, key target areas at Sunshine on Chester ground, i.e. bodes well for increasing Chester reserves.
Second, 20% of profits + 4% NSR is quite expensive for Sunshine, will be much more economical to buyout Chester. Remember both Sunshine and Sterling controlled Chester so wasn't such a big issue. De Motte in one of his first moves made sure of this - after he left new management lost control of Chester.
Third, no doubt RVM has leverage to silver and with narrower spread, and easier valuation, my opinion is in early stages of silver boom will go up- however they have larger float and certainly will take advantage of silver boom to raise money and issue more shares. Chester is opposite- they will benefit more in later stages of silver boom, or when Sunshine buys them out. Chester traditionally doesn't issue shares. Just my opinion CHMN will in long run on a percentage basis outperform.
As far as Rock Creek and Montanore the permitting effort has gone on for decades.
Anyway both plays on silver going up !
sanbrunobaby
10 years ago
No problem, just a discussion so we all can invest/speculate better.
All three NI43-101 reports showed (a) resources in Chester area at 51 million ounces (b) reserves a bit unclear but seemed to be 5 million ounces (c) three of underground target areas Sterling projected 5 to 8 years production from high-grade Chester areas.
- so considering share count of Chester, and that Chester doesn't have to invest anything, the leverage is enormous.
Keep in mind also low share count of Chester. Probably even lower actually that are in market since company formed over 100 years ago so many shares probably lost over the years. When Chester was at $3 and $4 per share, certainly no big flood of shares hit the market.
You are right who knows production timetables. But Sunshine has a mill which Sterling put back into production under De Motte and Mclean; I assume permits still in place.
Revett though will probably have better liquidity, and may move up before Chester.
Both seem good speculations on Silver price.
sanbrunobaby
10 years ago
Historically CHMN shows a great percentage increase when there is a real silver boom as investors/speculators look for US silver plays.
As far as Revett, like Mines Management they have had permitting issue for years, even decades. I think you are right both would go up with positive silver prices. I guess what I like about CHMN is story is simple and management keeps costs down to almost nothing waiting for the time buyout happens. They have silver reserves and resources, for which they have no holding costs- and for which America's richest silver mine must have for long term production plans. So if I have to hold for 1,3 or even 5 years, which would give better percentage return ?
This is even more compelling than before. Sterling's production plan was 5 million ounces a year, new group want to expand to 8 million ounces. So they need Chester !!!
I recall Chester had other assets as well. So a market cap of under $700,000 is a steal.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
If you look at the NI43-101 reports posted on sedar, both the 06/19/07 report posted under Sterling,and the 12/27/2012 under Sunshine Silver, they both make the same comment- the Sunshine consistently converted to resources to reserves for over 100 years.Being an underground mine, usually due to cost involved mine would only target developing 5 to 7 years reserves at any one time. Note that Sunshine Silver continued using Stelring's exploration plans, and apparently has increased the resources another 25 million ounces.
Sunshine Silver projected a life of mine cost of $14 an ounce ( higher than Sterling's). I note specifically for Chester vein area high grade silver, 22 to 32 oz silver per ton.
As far as Hecla Mining's decision to sell Consil remember the 90's had low silver prcies, and Hecla was battling EPA to survive at that time.
I note some former Sterling employees with sub penny start up First Colombia Gold.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Guess somehwere on internet there must be the old sterling powerpoints showing the high grades in the deeper Chester areas. There is the Sterling NI43-101 report on sedar.com. Many maps there.
The west chance ore body still had some fully developed stopes when mine shut down. Sterling drilled a few holes outside even the area of the inferred resources, and immediately hit ore-grade material. De Motte authorized Mclean to immediately to develop those areas,mining as they went, which Mclean was doing when management changed in May 2008. Sterling was only a few stopes away from positive cash flow from underground, and already cash flow positive from upper areas, when management abruptly changed.
Chester area very very very key to the mine, De Motte and Cambell both realized that and established good working relationship from what people say. ( De Motte also had very close relationship with Bob Hopper of the Bunker Hill, and Harry Magnuson).New management though in May 2008 (Voorhees and Meek) disrupted these relationships leading to Sterling losing major influence on Chester.
Looking at the ILDM example CHMN doesnt need to do anything except make noise at the right time for Sunshine Silver to wake up and come running.CHMN has certainly a lower float than ILDM had.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Thanks for information.
Yes the 7% royalty quite clear;y applies only to claims Sunshine Mining owned. I cant imagine that none of the reserves are on Chester ground and even less even if just APEX rights the Chester vein resources are not related to Chester ground.
However the main investment thesis remains- Chester owns a key part of what is necessary for the Sunshine to become a long term producer. At some point Chester receives cash from production, or is bought out. With only 5 million shares outstanding, and I assume a very very low public float ( I think under 600,000 shares), this is a medium to long term winner. Probably the best speculation in the industry if one has patience, IMO.
brandemarcus
11 years ago
Chester update part three :
1. Chester first declared dividends on October 27, 1964 and the 20th and last dividend was in 1970. Hecla at that time owned 52% of the company as it was part operator from the con silver shaft.
2. Sunshine's mine 1999&2000 annual reports talk about depletion of the ore body at west chance and the possible new areas to replace it in the eastern section of the mine. They talk about exploring the eastern part of the 101 vein, Yankee girl vein, and the Chester vein towards the consolidated silver shaft.
3. These were interesting plans, but since the mine was closed by early 2001 one can guess not much of #2 was done. I think for now, all sterling and sunshine silver mines provided to the 43-101 is old Sunshine Mines records where nothing can really be established in resrerves where the Chester nsr applies.
4. Only indication one might get is from the 1999 report talking about the good hope area of 8300 tons at 29 0z per ton. This is total speculation on my part as to whether the Chester nsr applies to the good hope area.
5. I also forgot to note that Chester retains 1.5% nsr on the Idaho cobalt property in addition to the shares in Independence resources.
6. Finally, San Bruno if you talk with Bill you might want to get clarification on apex rights which were decided by agreements made in 1943.
brandemarcus
11 years ago
Chester update part three :
1. Chester first declared dividends on October 27, 1964 and the 20th and last dividend was in 1970. Hecla at that time owned 52% of the company as it was part operator from the con silver shaft.
2. Sunshine's mine 1999&2000 annual reports talk about depletion of the ore body at west chance and the possible new areas to replace it in the eastern section of the mine. They talk about exploring the eastern part of the 101 vein, Yankee girl vein, and the Chester vein towards the consolidated silver shaft.
3. These were interesting plans, but since the mine was closed by early 2001 one can guess not much of #2 was done. I think for now, all sterling and sunshine silver mines provided to the 43-101 is old Sunshine Mines records where nothing can really be established in resrves where the Chester nsr applies.
4. Only indication one might get is from the 1999 report talking about the good hope area of 8300 tons at 29 0z per ton. This is total speculation on my part as to whether the Chester nsr applies to the good hope area.
5. I also forgot to note that Chester retains 1.5% nsr on the Idaho cobalt property in addition to the shares in Independence resources.
6. Finally, San Bruno if you talk with Bill you might want to get clarification on apex rights which were decided by agreements made in 1943.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Answer to 3 questions
Sterling Tunnel was just built by De Motte and Mclean starting from plans developed in 2005, and completed by 2007.Over 5000 feet !
On rolling up ASLM and SBUM that would probably require an s1 registration statement, hard to imagine CHMN paying for that, they keep their expenses down !
Dividends, who knows what plicy of current management would be, but paying a steady dividend would certainly help boost price of stock. Also I have heard, helps to clear shorts out of market for this type of stock , though I doubt many pople would be gutsy enough to try to short this stock
brandemarcus
11 years ago
1. My point is it seems given how much production was from chester there would be more frequent dividends in the historical record.
2. I forgot whether 11-12 was the cash cost or full cost in the production estimate? I think it was cash cost?
3. Was the sterling tunnel in relatively good condition compared to other areas of the mine?
4. In the event Sunshine bids 10 for chester how cheap do you think we will be able to roll into aslm and sbum?
5. Off topic- Imagine this merged company usa silver, axu=alexco, rvm -revett minerals, sunshine silver, atna resources, mines managemt-mgn, vista gold-vgz- use all excess cash to get rid of any debt - consolidate g & adm expenses promotion etc. YES a lot of un- economic property at current prices but a cheap perpetual call options at no cost.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Chster could pay dividends simply because that was where Sunshine was mining from.Hard to forecast how many ounces would come from production form Chester areas without revised mine plan,but 1.5 million ounces as good a forecast as any.
USA Silver certainly has potential, just with Sunshine's higher grades and very consistent- when exploration continued- conversion of resources to reserves it seems better poetntial for the future.Hecla just hasnt been as agressive as one might have hoped in going after USA Silver.
Also, big change is the Sterling tunnel built by De Motte and Mclean to access upper country areas that hadnt been explored for many decades. Thi sis a wild card to additional potential at the Sunshine.
California not a great place to mine, but very few Cobalt deposits in the world so for long term a reasonable speculation.Inpdendence Resource guys seem very experienced in mien finance, if market turns in 2014 it could do well.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Look forward to your post.
Sunshine is much higher grade mine than the Galena, and much more room for adding resources.
Length of time of production from the Chester is an unkown due to the very nature of the Sunshine- i.e. it has a consistent history since 1884 of replacing reserves, and shows every indication of additional resources at depth. Of the five key target areas at depth ( see Sterling's former powerpoint) 2 out of the 3 were from Chester ground, and the third could be construed as Chester having APEX rights. The NI43-101 report showed 50 million ounces of resources on the Chester vein.
So how do you value all this ?
1. Market Cap per ounce of resource- not particularly precise but some analysts use, and because they use can determine the market cap value of a resource. ( same applies to reserves).
2 NPV/IRR- this of course more precise valuation, but for that normally you need to know various factors not always completely available to an investor.
The key factor that lead to Sunshines closing in 2000 was that management cut exploration and development, and of course low metal prices.A mine like the Sunshine needs to develop a new ore body every 5 or 10 years. They have the resoources- justneed to convert to reserves in an economic fashion.Therein is why they have to buy out Chester or control it- they cant leave some of the most promising areas of the mine under the terms of the current lease.
Sunshine Mining Company knew this, that is why they owned over 50% of Chester, then gave it away during their closing. De Motte at Sterling knew this, that is why he arranged Sterling to control Chester. Afte de Motte left new management ( mainly Voorhees and Meek) for inexplicable reason gave up that shares Sterling had.Sonew Sunshine owners stuck.
3. As you say you can play with the numbers, i Chester ground can produce 1 million ounces, and market values that at X, that is one method. Or try to use cost per ounce etc and arrive at a rough valuation. The 8 million ounce plan current owners have is a massive increase in capacity, so timing a bit of an issue.
I think no matter how you look at it , Chester will want $ 5 or $10 per share and ore to be bought out. If current owners have 51% control, that leaves very little in public float- any buying ( as we see in 2003-2006 period) makes this thing shoot to the moon.Only risk is if current management doesnt hold out, but I think they are savvy and now what they have.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Sunshine Silver or Hecla will probably eventually buy US silver, but both can afford to wait, especially Sunshine Silver.First just lok at what they have raised and spent to date- if USA silver became cheap enough they could probably find way to make cash offer but I believe Sunshine Silver will prefer to pay with paper , and paper that has a value higher after they start trading. Hecla cango after USA Silver any time, but they need tobe more aggressive to acquire it- would be great marketing plus for Hecla.
I read the posts you referred me too. Not really sure where they are coming from. For example they talk about labor relations. A bit of history- the Galena Mine always had some in the union, and Sunshine was unionized under Sunshine Mining Company.When Sterling took over, De Motte and Mclean had a very worker focused philosophy, and De Motte was very close to the workers.No union during Sterling years, and Sterling had no probem hiring the best workers from most mines.In fact De Motte even went out of his way to hire strong union types- he made famous agreement with one that if ever workers felt company didnt have their best interests at heart, he would personaly invite the union in. At the time ,USA Silver went all over Toronto trying to promote company, and explaining poor results from not being able to hire enough miners. Yet Sterling had almost zero per cent turnover, and had a waiting list of miners wanting to work there, at least until De Motte left in May 2008. Now Sunshine work force managed by your typical mine managers, competent, not sure where idea is that Galena labor-management culture would benefit current Sunshine workforce.
But the only company in Pacific Northwest Sterling couldnt hire best workers from was Hecla, which was and is considered blue chip company to work for.
So a bit odd the post indicating the Galena work force ( especially considering recent layoffs) would strengthen Sunshine Silver due to good labor-management relations.
Dont get me wrong, Galena Mine has some good potential in a rising silver market, and some synergies with the Sunshine.But it is not the easiest mine to generate a profit from or achieve sustained compound growth- something the last 20 years has shown.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Opinion on which issue ?
The fellows behind Sunshine Silver used the heart of the mining plan De Motte and Mclean developed, and decided to expand capacity- while getting just the right moment to go public. Since they have deep pockets they can afford to wait.SoI am not sure they would want to merge with USA Silver at these prices, unless they could get USA silver at bargain prices- or they gte tied of drain in capital keeping the Sunshine going.The USA Silver mine lower grade and tougher to operate. Keep in mind during the De Motte era at Sunshine a lot of focus was on rehabilitating the mine step by step- so Sunshine Silver guys got a property in many ways in better shape the USA Silver property considering the higher gade at the Sunshine.
Not sure CHMN would want to speculate on production timeframe at the Sunshine, but the NI43-101 report filed by Sterling on sedar had in appendix a production time table that you may wish to look at.
CHMN in the catbird seat, Sunshine Silver has to buy them out, and I believe this will happen at $10 per share plus.Sterling reported 50 + million ounce resource on Chester veins + even more important, of deep high grade targets at the mine for its future, several on Chester property.If you can find an old SterlingMining Company site or powerpoint I sem to recall there was a slide that showed this. Happy hunting !
Anoteh rissue is whether Chester has any APEX rights on its veins extending beyond property boundaries- even if they cant prove this, Sunshine Silver wont want to get tied up in litigation.
sanbrunobaby
11 years ago
Well,
1. If he is not making salary, and he probably has other business as well, he may just have to prioritise his calls. Anyway I wouldnt fret as he probably just a bit gruff sometimes.
2.Yes Lannen a different kettle of fish- but he was on a "mission" as opposed to pure business. I also had talked dto him.
3 Seems Ryan and Crosby have other companies that do business with Cambell, who knows reason fro their departure.
Still boils down to the dynamics of situation of fundamentals and simplicity of this stock which reduces common risk factors. Since illiquid one needs to accumulate in small amounts. Sicne no promotion, hopefully word of mouth slowly moves price up in upcoming years I am quite confident of a $5 to $10 buy-out price. Look at it this way for $5 million buys out 20% of 50 million ounce resource + future potential at deeper levels+ lots of potential bother that as Lannen experience shows can be substantial.