It's the equivalent of Christmas-time for home-improvement
retailers as the spring yard and fix-up season kicks into full
gear, but shoppers seem to be more focused on stocking-stuffer-like
purchases than one-time splurges.
By all accounts, customer traffic at Home Depot Inc. (HD),
Lowe's Cos. (LOW) and other hardware or lawn and garden retail
stores is picking up from the seasonally slow fourth quarter.
And many surveys indicate a high level of interest in
home-related projects. Lowe's, for example, recently found eight
out of 10 homeowners it surveyed are planning a do-it-yourself lawn
or garden project or interior painting over the next 12 months.
ServiceMagic.com, which matches homeowners with home-service
contractors, found that while 35% of surveyed homeowners postponed
a home-improvement project last year, more than half of them intend
to take on the project this year.
Even so, shoppers so far remain focused primarily on needs, not
wants, based on comments by industry analysts, suppliers to Home
Depot and Lowe's, and by other players in the space. During the
current quarter, that means smaller-ticket items like fertilizer
and paint are selling, but sales of bigger-ticket items carrying
fatter profit margins, such as riding lawn mowers and kitchen
cabinets, remain weak.
Some analysts expect the seasonal bump in sales could be enough
for Home Depot and Lowe's to meet Wall Street's first-quarter
expectations when they report results later this month. Lowe's
reports fiscal first-quarter results May 18, while Home Depot
reports on May. 19.
FBR Capital analyst Stephen Chick said recently that store
visits in the Northeast left him hopeful sales trends at Home Depot
and Lowe's would skew to the better end of the companies' plans and
Wall Street's forecasts.
Neither Home Depot nor Lowe's would comment on recent sales
trends, citing company policies against updating business trends
ahead of earnings.
Others worry the mix shift will have a negative impact on the
top and bottom lines for several more quarters and may not ever
return to levels seen during the boom years of the U.S. housing
bubble.
"There's a mindshift away from tapping the line of credit to put
in a new pool and outdoor patio with a gourmet kitchen," said Bryan
Eshelman, a managing director in consulting firm Alix Partners'
retail practice. "That sort of over-the-top and big-ticket project
is going to be a long time coming back, if it ever does."
Harvard University's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity
points to a 12% decline in homeowner spending on remodeling this
year, to $110.2 billion, following a 9.7% drop in 2008.
"What's holding back the housing market is the same as what's
holding back remodeling," said Kermit Baker, a spokesman for the
university's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Price declines and
credit restrictions aren't incentives for homeowners to take on
projects, he said. "I think there are probably even more households
undertaking projects, but they're just smaller scale."
Craig Smith, CEO of ServiceMagic.com, said in a recent interview
that his company is getting more requests for carpet cleaning
services, furniture repairs and preventive maintenance on heating
and air conditioning systems. Some of the steepest declines in
requests, meanwhile, are for architects, engineers, designers and
remodelers. ServiceMagic.com is owned by IAC/InterActiveCorp.
(IACI).
"People are more focused on the smaller projects that improve
live-in value of their homes," rather than projects to ready a
house for sale, Smith said.
Even in areas of recent sales strength, product-mix trends
aren't necessarily optimal for the home-improvement retailers.
Briggs & Stratton Corp. (BGG), which supplies engines for
mowers, tillers and tractors, recently noted consumers are shifting
away from riding equipment to lower horsepower equipment, a trend
that holds implications not only for equipment makers but also the
retailers, Raymond James analyst Budd Bugatch said. Higher
horsepower riding equipment has a higher average selling price and
margin "for everyone in the channel," he said.
Indeed, a recent survey by Information Research Inc., or IRI,
found 38% of consumers are cutting back on their use of landscaping
services, but they're sharing yard equipment as opposed to making
big investments in new mowers.
Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO), a farm, feed and equipment retailer
that targets farmers and homeowners who have fled suburbia for more
rural surroundings, last week said demand is weak for riding
mowers, but sales of replacement and maintenance parts are
stronger.
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR), too, has reported that consumers continue
to delay buying even replacement appliances, and some are trading
down to lower-priced models when they finally make a purchase.
Fortune Brands (FO), which makes MasterBrand and Diamond
cabinets and Moen faucets, said Friday it believes the cabinet
business is performing worse than the entire repair and remodeling
market.
These trends pose longer-term issues for Home Depot and Lowe's,
which designed store formats during the housing boom to meet the
growing demand for kitchen cabinets and fancy bathroom vanities.
Both have substantial floor space devoted to big-ticket
projects.
Meanwhile, repair and maintenance projects might favor the
smaller hardware stores, which are often closer to customers' homes
and are seen by consumers as less likely to trigger impulse
purchases, Eshelman said. Even within discretionary projects, he
said, the money these days is in "lighter touch redecorating
projects or spring spruce-up things" rather than big-ticket
remodeling projects.
-By Mary Ellen Lloyd, Dow Jones Newswires; 704-948-9145;
maryellen.lloyd@dowjones.com