By Carla Mozee
Latin American equity markets dropped Thursday, pressured after
China failed to outline plans to expand its economic stimulus
package, a move anticipated by investors a day ago as they sent
stocks soaring worldwide.
Brazil's Bovespa fell 2.7% to 37,368.93, losing the bulk of its
5.3% surge on Wednesday.
Mexico's IPC fell 2.6% to 17,365.02.
In Buenos Aires, the Merval index dropped 3.1% and Chile's IPSA
logged a 2.2% decline.
Among exchange-traded funds, the iShares S&P Latin America
40 Index Fund (ILF) fell 3.6%, halving its gains from
Wednesday.
The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) fell 2.6% but managed
to retain a portion of its 7% advance from Wednesday.
A day ago, stocks around the world rallied after a former
Chinese official said Premier Wen Jiabao was considering additional
measures to spur economic growth. The country launched a $585
billion stimulus package in November.
But on Thursday, "there was no mention of a second and bigger
stimulus plan," wrote analysts at Standard Chartered Group in a
report. The premier formally announced China's 2009 growth target
of 8%, signaling that there won't be a new round of spending
projects.
Projects focused on infrastructure and housing, for example,
could benefit some of Latin America's biggest providers of natural
resources and related products, as China is the largest consumer
for many industrial commodities.
Brazilian steel stocks, which were big winners in Wednesday's
rally, were mired in losses Thursday. Shares of Companhia Vale do
Rio Doce (RIO), whose key product is iron ore, fell 3.9%. Usiminas
shares fell 6.2%, Gerdau (GGB) fell 6.3% and CSN (SID) gave up
6.3%.
Meanwhile, shares of Bovespa heavyweight Petroleo Brasileiro
(PBR) fell 1.4%, tracking a decline in crude-oil prices. Investors
also positioned themselves ahead of Petrobras' release of quarterly
results on Friday, which are expected to decline as oil prices
dropped during the fourth quarter.
Petrobras' results are among key figures set for release on
Friday. Brazil's industrial production report for January is due,
arriving ahead of the country's interest-rate policy meeting next
week.
Itaú Securities on Thursday forecast seasonally adjusted growth
of 9.4% from December, when manufacturing activity fell 12.4%.
Growth in January will likely be led by automotive production,
which rose 64.7% compared with the same month a year ago, it
said.
"Manufacturing is a key element in GDP trends, and it's really
not looking good so far this year, wrote Guilherme da Nóbrega,
Itaú's chief economist, in a note Thursday. "The propagation into
services, through the labor market, has only just begun. Global
trends are not helping."
Itaú said it's revising its macro scenario, which will likely
result in a "less cheerful forecast for 2009 GDP growth than our
current 1.5%."
The U.S. Labor Department on Friday is expected to report the
biggest decline in nonfarm payroll in nearly 60 years. Economists
surveyed by MarketWatch expect February payrolls to fall by
650,000, and project the unemployment rate to rise to 8%, from
7.6%.
More evidence that U.S. economic conditions have worsened may
bring pain to Mexico's markets on Friday, as the country's own
economy is strongly linked with the U.S.
In Mexico City, shares of cement maker Cemex (CX) plunged 15% to
7.01 pesos, its lowest close since late November. The sharp decline
prompted a brief trading halt during the session. The shares were
hit on reported concerns that company may have to pay interest of
15% on bonds that it plans to issue.
Cemex is seeking to raise proceeds from U.S. dollar-dominated
bonds to help refinance a portion of its debt. The company's total
has swelled $19 billion because of its purchase of Rinker Ltd.
Meanwhile, Mexico's peso fell to 15.394 against the greenback on
Thursday, after the country's central bank changed its policy for
foreign-exchange intervention. Banxico will begin selling $100
million a day regardless of the exchange rate and said it will
offer to sell $300 million at 2% below the rate from the previous
session. It previously offered to sell $400 million.
The new strategy will begin Monday and stems from the central
bank's efforts to defend the currency, which has been hit in recent
months mainly on concerns about the country's economic health.
The change was a "slight tweak" in policy, said analysts at RBC
Capital Markets in a note late Thursday. "We believe it will help
only slightly in dampening some of the extreme volatility we have
seen in USD/MXN, offering up some [dollar] liquidity in a market
that has seen a noticeable decline in daily trading," they
said.