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London open: FTSE edges up after jobs data, ahead of BoE announcement

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London stocks on the FTSE edged up in early trade on Thursday ahead of the latest Bank of England policy announcement, as data showed the unemployment rate remained steady in January while wage growth slowed slightly but remained “relatively strong”.

At 0830 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.2% at 8,720.49.

The BoE decision is due at midday, with no change to rates expected.

Before that, data from the Office for National Statistics showed the unemployment rate came in at 4.4% in January, unchanged from December.

Regular pay excluding bonuses rose 5.9% in the three months to January, the same as a month earlier and remaining at the highest level since the three months to April last year.

Meanwhile, total pay including bonuses was up 5.8%, down from 6.1% a month earlier and versus expectations for a smaller decline to 5.9%

ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: “Overall pay growth remains relatively strong, with pay growth high in both the public and private sectors, despite the latter slowing slightly in the latest period.

“The wider labour market picture is relatively unchanged, with the number of employees on payroll broadly flat in the latest period and with little growth seen over much of the last year.

“Unemployment, as measured by the Labour Force Survey, and the Claimant Count have both increased slightly in the latest periods, though caution continues to be advised with the survey estimates.

“Initial estimates show that the number of vacancies is little changed on the previous quarter, remaining just above pre-pandemic levels.”

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4.50% today.

“The next cut will probably be in May and, ultimately, we think rates will be cut further than most expect.”

In equity markets, Prudential jumped to the top of the FTSE 100 as it hiked its dividend by 13% and accelerated its share buyback plan after profits rose by a tenth in 2024, with financial results in line with group guidance.

The insurance and asset management company returned $785m to shareholders in 2024, as part of its $2bn repurchase plan that will now complete by the end of 2025, ahead of the original mid-2026 schedule.

The firm reported an adjusted operating profit before tax of $3.13bn for 2024, up 10% on a constant currency basis.

Shaftesbury Capital surged after saying it has sold a 25% stake in its Covent Garden portfolio to Norwegian sovereign wealth fund Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) for £570m.

The deal values the Covent Garden estate, which covers some 220 buildings across 1.4m square feet, at £2.7bn, in line with an independent property valuation at the end of last year.

Bloomsbury Publishing rallied as it said full-year trading was ahead of expectations after a strong performance in the second half.

Crest Nicholson rose as the housebuilder said it had seen an encouraging start to the year and remained on track to deliver results in line with guidance in the current financial year.

Food company Cranswick also advanced as it upgraded medium-term targets and said the current year outlook was unchanged, with robust demand for its core pork and poultry products continuing throughout the fourth quarter.

On the downside, 3i Group slid after an update on non-food discounter Action, its largest portfolio company.

 

Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

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# Name Change Pct Change Cur Price
1 Pershing Square Holdings Ltd +2.60% +96.00 3,786.00
2 Ferguson Enterprises Inc. +2.46% +310.00 12,910.00
3 Flutter Entertainment Plc +2.40% +440.00 18,795.00
4 London Stock Exchange Group Plc +2.05% +225.00 11,175.00
5 Experian Plc +2.02% +71.00 3,590.00
6 Barratt Redrow Plc +1.97% +8.50 439.30
7 Marks And Spencer Group Plc +1.89% +6.20 335.10
8 Ashtead Group Plc +1.77% +77.00 4,417.00
9 Segro Plc +1.70% +11.80 707.40
10 Severn Trent Plc +1.64% +40.00 2,473.00

 

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

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# Name Change Pct Change Cur Price
1 3i Group Plc -6.16% -235.00 3,580.00
2 Beazley Plc -3.51% -31.50 866.50
3 Pearson Plc -3.23% -41.00 1,229.00
4 Ck Infrastructure Holdings Limited -2.72% -14.00 500.00
5 Compass Group Plc -2.36% -59.00 2,441.00
6 Hsbc Holdings Plc -1.74% -15.60 880.30
7 Standard Chartered Plc -1.72% -20.50 1,174.00
8 Banco Santander S.a. -1.46% -8.00 539.00
9 Bhp Group Limited -1.17% -22.50 1,906.50
10 Natwest -1.16% -5.40 461.60

 

US close: Stocks jump on dovish signals from Powell

Dovish signals from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell pushed US stocks higher in afternoon trade, with the S&P 500 rising to its highest in nearly two weeks.

“The Fed meeting delivered a dovish surprise that has been welcomed by stock market bulls,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

The Dow gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq jumped 1.4% while the S&P 500 rose 1.1% to finish at 5,675.29 – its highest close since 7 March. Markets have been volatile over recent weeks on fears that Donald Trump’s trade policies could weaken economic growth prospects and stoke inflation.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. But while the Fed’s macroeconomic projections were for slower growth and higher inflation due to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, Powell said his base case was that the resulting upwards pressure on prices would be “transitory”.

Furthermore, despite the increased economic uncertainty, the ‘dot plot’ graph showed policymakers continued to expect two more interest-rate cuts over the course of 2025 – matching projections made in December.

“Either the Fed thinks that tariffs will be short-lived, or they think that tariffs will be transitory, and president Trump could roll back on tariffs in the coming months,” Brooks said. “Powell said that the FOMC is at the place where they can ‘cut or we can hold’, crucially the Fed chair did not say that they could also hike rates. This is another dovish signal from this meeting.”

In other news, US mortgage applications pulled back 6.2% last week after 11.2% jump in the first week of March and a 20.4% surge in the last week of February, as 30-year mortgage rates rose for the first time in more than two months.

The dollar was rebounding slightly today after hitting a five-month low on Tuesday in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The US dollar index was up 0.2% at 103.48 by the end of play.

Market movers

Autodesk was rising on reports that major shareholder and activist investor Starboard is considering a proxy battle to nominate a candidate to the board.

Tesla shares were also higher following a TV interview with chief executive Elon Musk, in which he defended his reputation amid an ongoing backlash to his political leanings.

Cheerios-owner General Mills fell after cutting its full-year outlook due to waning demand for snacks in the US and mounting economic uncertainty. Having previously forecast growth in the range of flat to 1%, the Minneapolis-based business now expects sales to fall between 2% and 1.5%.

Travel stocks were putting in a decent performance, with Expedia, American Airlines, Marriott, Booking Holdings, Delta, Norwegian, Carnival and Royal Caribbean all among the best performers of the day.

 

Thursday newspaper round-up: High streets, Grangemouth, Fed

The UK’s high streets are expected to empty out at a faster pace this year as extra costs imposed on businesses by Rachel Reeves are blamed for shops closing and a slowdown in chain store openings. The rate of store closures is forecast to rise again as a result of the chancellor’s tax-raising budget last October, after a slowdown to 10 a day last year from 13 a day in 2023, according to research. – Guardian

The UK’s cybersecurity agency is urging organisations to guard their systems against quantum hackers by 2035, as the prospect of breakthroughs in powerful computing threaten digital encryption. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has issued new guidance recommending large entities including energy and transport providers introduce “post-quantum cryptography” in order to prevent quantum technology being deployed to break into their systems. – Guardian

Scotland’s last remaining oil refinery could be used to turn pine trees into petrol under a £225m taxpayer-funded plan proposed by Ed Miliband. Under the scheme, timber harvested in Scotland would be taken to the site of the Grangemouth refinery to be “fermented” into bioethanol for blending into fuel, or used to produce chemicals and cosmetics. Grangemouth is scheduled to be shut down this summer by owners including Sir Jim Ratcliffe, a move expected to trigger the loss of 500 jobs at the plant and an estimated 2,500 more in related industries. – Telegraph

The Federal Reserve has cut its outlook for growth in the world’s largest economy this year on the back of President Trump’s tariff policies which are ­expected to push inflation higher, limiting scope for rate cuts. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, which kept its benchmark borrowing costs unchanged in a range of 4.25-4.5 per cent, said yesterday that households and businesses are braced for higher inflation due to US trade ­levies, adding that survey respondents “are mentioning tariffs as a decisive ­factor”. – The Times

 

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