Foreign Exchange

AU Employment Dispels Rate Cut Concerns (For Now)

18 Apr 2019 @ 18:37
Today’s employment data for Australia dispelled any immediate fears of a rate cut. Yet, if a certain correlation is to hold true, we could see unemployment rise and calls for a cut to return with it. Unemployment ticked higher to 5% (4.9% previously) but as this was in line with expectation, the markets took it […]
 

NZD Spikes Lower As Traders Price In A Live RBNZ Meeting In May

17 Apr 2019 @ 18:32
New Zealand CPI data missed them mark, instilling a blast of bearish volatility for NZD crosses as traders adjusted to the idea of a May cut. At 1.5% YoY, it’s the lowest CPI read since Q3 2018 and below their own target of 1.6% (markets today were expecting 1.7%). Furthermore, QoQ was just 0.1% vs […]
 

RBA Minutes Drives The Aussie Lower

16 Apr 2019 @ 18:10
The Australian dollar fell to the bottom of the pack following today’s RBA minutes, as traders questioned RBA’s confidence in their labour market forecasts. RBA held rates at 1.5% earlier this month and provided what appeared to be a fairly-balanced and neutral statement. We’d noticed that RBA remained confident in the labour market picking up, […]
 

CAD/JPY Squares Up To Its 200-day eMA

15 Apr 2019 @ 18:08
We’ve continued to monitor CAD/JPY’s potential to break higher, following its 3-wave correction and break of its channel. Having consolidated above its channel throughout last week, Friday’s range expansion candle saw the cross stop just shy of its 200-day eMA and 19th March high. Furthermore, it’s kept alive its potential for form an inverted head […]
 

Nikkei's Breakout Puts USD/JPY On The Radar

15 Apr 2019 @ 17:58
Renewed trade optimism and strong earnings from the US on Friday has seen Asia shares break broadly higher today, with the Nikkei 225 trading at its highest level since early December. We can see on the Nikkei 225 futures market that the trend structure is increasingly bullish, and today’s range expansion shows the index accelerating […]
 

Weekly COT Report - 15th April 2019

15 Apr 2019 @ 17:52
A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators. EUR traders extended their net-short exposure to their most bearish level since December 2016 Traders continue to bet on low volatility, with the VIX net-short exposure at its most bearish level since WTI net-long exposure its […]
 

DAX Consolidates Near 6-Month Highs

12 Apr 2019 @ 18:38
If the DAX can hold current support levels before breaking to new cycle highs, it could reaffirm the strength of its bullish channel. The DAX has seen some large swings around the 200-day eMA, although a decent trend structure is emerging within a bullish channel on the daily chart. Prices are consolidating near 6-month highs […]
 

EUR/USD Spikes Higher - A Sign Of Things To Come?

12 Apr 2019 @ 18:37
Around 1am London, EUR/USD spiked higher and, upon closer inspection saw the bid for Euro was broadly based. This leaves a potential bullish breakout on the cards for UK or US trading session ahead of the weekend. Whilst the driver is currently unknown, it may be related to Jerome Powell reportedly asserting “Fed independence” at […]
 

AUD/JPY – Building Up For A Breakout (One Way Or Other)

11 Apr 2019 @ 18:16
Since early February, AUD/JPY has moved sideways in a 240-pip range. We highlighted its potential to roll over from its highs on Monday and, whilst that potential still remains, we have to be open to the potential for a bullish breakout too. Since the prior analysis, the intraday double top failed to materialise, as prices […]
 

Traders Say ‘Meh’ To 6-Month Flextension

11 Apr 2019 @ 17:31
The EU granted the UK’s flextension until 31st October, four-month longer than PM May requested. Yet whilst today’s ‘meh’ reaction points towards Brexit fatigue, the coiling nature of GBP suggests volatility could be brewing. As Matt Weller pointed out just yesterday, it was more a question of how long an extension would be over whether […]
 
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