Greece from a Common Sense Perspective

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I awoke before sunrise this morning and found a message in my inbox from the BOSS, asking if I would “write a piece about Greece.” I said, of course that I would. After having tended to some business, it is now four hours later and I can see that the entire continent of Europe is in a dither, wondering what is going to happen. As I sat down to pen (Pen? I haven’t seen one of those in years!) this potential prize-winning piece, I noticed that two of my ADVFN colleagues (well, one colleague and Tom Frew) have already weighed in, and that is reasonable, given the import of an impending crisis. That is, it is an impeding crisis for the EU and beyond. It’s already a crisis for Greeks lined up at ATMs that are running dry.

What We Know

I always believe that a review of what we actually know is a good start. So, here is a list of things that we are reasonable certain about approaching 4:00 pm.

  • Greece has been on the public dole, as it were, for six years.
  • Greece has said that it will default on the €1.5 billion that it owes the IMF. A spokesperson the the Greek Finance Minister made this statement directly to CNN. Note the emphasis on “said.”
  • The Greek Prime Minister has called for a national referendum on the crisis to be held on Sunday, 25 July. The referendum would put acceptance of new EU, ECB, and IMF proposed austerity measures and financial reforms to a vote of the people.
  • Greek banks remain closed.
  • ATM withdrawals are limited to €60 per day.
  • Should a default actually occur, Greece would be “on its own” financially.
  • Greece and the EU are still negotiating the former’s request for a two-year extension of the bail-out loan.
  • Prime Minister Tspras is ready to fly to Brussels should an agreement be reached today.
  • Any extension of the bail-out is said to be dependent upon Greek acceptance of the proposed austerity measures in the Sunday referendum.
  • BREAKING: The 19 EU Finance Ministers have agreed to a teleconference “to assess the latest proposals to keep the bailout negotiations going.”
  • Someone has started a crowdfunded bailout plea for Greece on Indiegogo. The funding began two days ago with a goal of €1.6 billion. So far, 12,096 people have donated €188,941.

What We Don’t Know

Pure and simple. We know nothing about what will actually happen. Yet that is what all the buzz is about. We are a people hypnotized by “what ifs” and other various forms of speculation. What’s going to happen? Repeat after me: WE – DON’T – KNOW!

In crisis situations like this, it is hardly relevant what people say – especially politicians, bankers and other scoundrels. Anything that anyone says is going to happen at this point is either strategic positioning in the high-level negotiating process or salacious speculation by frenzied media trying to create a story before it happens rather than tell the story that is happening.

All of the collective anxiety and angst will not make a difference at the end of the day.

What I Think Is Going to Happen

Not that it matters, but since you asked…I think a deal will be reached. I do not know what that deal will be or how it will be structured, but, based on the apparent intensity of the eleventh hour negotiations, I assume that everyone realizes that a deal must be made. That being the case, everyone will have worried unnecessarily.

Let’s see how things look in the morning.

(Just kidding Tom. You’re a good colleague.)

For more on the Greek debt crises, go to ADVFN’s Greek Crisis page:

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