2nd UPDATE: Retailers Same-Store Sales Not As Low As Feared
04 September 2009 - 5:22AM
Dow Jones News
Retailers delivered some of their best same-store sales in
almost a year in August, with apparel retailers and discounters
benefiting from some early back-to-school buying, while department
stores continued struggling for the right formula to bring
customers back.
The showing is prompting some analysts to say that July's big
drop was the bottom of a downturn that began for the industry last
fall and that has stubbornly stuck while other areas of the economy
are improving.
Still, a quick recovery is not expected since fully half of
retailers missed projections, leaving the Christmas buying season
still a bit unknown.
Sales at stores open more than a year, a key measure of
retailers' health, slipped 2.9% last month, when a 3.8% drop was
expected. The results are based on analysts' estimates for 30
retailers and compiled by Thomson Reuters.
The showing, the widest estimate beat since last year, is
somewhat skewed by easier comparisons retailers faced as the bottom
really started falling out for the industry in August 2008 and
sales that month were relatively flat.
But many of the beats were big, including numbers turned in by
Target Corp. (TGT), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and Gap Inc.
(GPS).
Industrywide, same-store sales fell for a 12th straight month -
highlighting the woes retailers have experienced as consumer
spending continues to decline. But with leaner inventories,
companies are hoping to avoid the markdowns of last year's holiday
season as sales then were even weaker than expected.
August results were also hurt by the late Labor Day holiday,
meaning some schools started sessions later than last year. Another
likely impact was the strong rebound in August U.S. auto sales on
the "Cash for Clunkers" program. It was seen as steering some
consumers away from retailers to car showrooms.
Still, the sales decline was smaller than July's 5.1%, and
comparisons will continue to get easier in the coming months. Weak
prior-year results in part helped cushion the August decline -
year-earlier same-store sales rose a scant 0.2%, according to
Thomson Reuters. That was the last increase for the industry.
Target reported a smaller than expected 2.9% same-store sales
decline, with Chairman and Chief Executive Gregg Steinhafel saying
traffic was "essentially" flat, "a meaningful improvement from
second-quarter trends. We're pleased with these results, which we
believe reflect the resilience of both our guests and our strategy
in a challenging environment."
Off-price apparel sellers TJX Cos.' (TJX) and Ross Stores Inc.
(ROST) have been posting some of the best results of late, and
analysts in recent days were sharply raising their August
estimates, said Retail Metrics.
TJX posted a same-store sales increase of 5%, while Ross Stores
reported a 6% gain, both results topping estimates.
Another bright spot was Gap. It posted a much smaller than
expected 3% decline on a surprise 4% increase at the
long-struggling Old Navy chain.
Aside from Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), many teen
retailers did better than expected. Abercrombie again led the way
down, posting a bigger-than-projected 29% same-store-sales decline
for August. The company has seen big declines for months as
price-conscious shoppers instead go to cheaper rivals like
Aeropostale Inc. (ARO). Aeropostale had record August results and a
9% increase. As such, it raised its earnings forecast for the
quarter by 2 cents a share.
Department stores continued their woes. Macy's Inc. (M) posted
an 8.1% same-store sales drop, while J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) had a
7.9% decline. But Kohl's Corp. (KSS) posted a surprise 0.2%
increase, which was aided by strength in the accessories and
women's departments.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) in May stopped reporting monthly
sales data.
Analysts had a generally positive response to the reports,
upgrading a number of retailers' shares and increasing their
estimates.
In raising Costco to overweight from neutral, J.P. Morgan
Securities said same-store-sales for hardlines goods, like small
appliances and sporting goods, are improving, and the northern part
of California, one of the hardest hit states by the recession,
emerged as one of the leading regions during August. Costco is up
8.2% to $54.81.
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) had one of the biggest beats, with August
same-store-sales dropping 12%, when a 19% decline was expected. The
showing spurred MKM Partners to raise shares to buy, calling August
"a turning point" for the specialty retailer of sports-related
apparel, footwear and accessories for teens and young adults.
Zumiez is up 17% to $14.32. The stock is the best performer on the
Standard & Poor's Retail Index, which is ahead 1.2% to
355.22.
Other big gainers include Gap Inc. (GPS), ahead 6.6% to $21; and
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN), rising 6% to $28.82.
Abercrombie & Fitch is off 4.4% to $30.67. The once
seemingly unstoppable Buckle Inc. (BKE) was up 3 cents at is flat
at $26.78 after same-store-sales rose 3.6% when a 4.8% rise was
expected.
-By Karen Talley, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2196;
karen.talley@dowjones.com
(Kevin Kingsbury contributed to this report.)