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1 hour ago
Natural Gas Breaks Out, but Bearish Reversal Threatens Rally
By: Bruce Powers | March 10, 2025
• Natural gas spiked to $4.90 but reversed sharply, threatening a failed breakout as price action weakens and a bearish candlestick pattern signals potential downside risk.
Natural gas spiked a new trend high of $4.90 on Monday before encountering resistance that led to a sharp intraday sell-off. The advance led to a bullish breakout above the top trendline of a rising parallel channel set after the August 2024 low. However, subsequent intraday weakness warns of a possible failed breakout.
At the time of this writing, natural gas is trading back below the top trendline and in the lower quarter of the day’s trading range, which was $4.45 to $4.90. If it ends the day in a similar position, a bearish shooting star candlestick will be formed.
Bearish Candlestick Pattern Triggers Below $4.45
Although the candlestick pattern shows sellers in charge near the end of the trading session, the pattern doesn’t trigger until there is a drop below today’s low. Nonetheless, today’s price action is short-term bearish since it follows the breakout of a long-term pattern. Rather than seeing interest increase following the breakout, the candle pattern shows demand dissipating. In other words, the bullish signal was not confirmed, and it is therefore the breakout is subject to failure.
Initial Strength Turns Bearish
The breakout showed strength initially as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4.77 of the full downtrend that began from the 2022 peak was exceeded without hesitation. Subsequently, resistance was seen just below the next higher potential resistance zone defined by a November 2018 peak at $4.93 and a 78.6% target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at $4.97.
The ABCD pattern looks for price symmetry or a harmonic relationship between the second leg up (CD) and the first upswing (AB). Typically, a 100% relationship identifies a potentially key pivot level. That is where the price gains between the two swings are similar. Also, Fibonacci relationships are used to provide other potential pivots. The 78.6% level deserves attention today given the bearish reaction following the day’s high.
Key Support at 20-Day MA
It looks like the spike high occurred due to an order imbalance shortly after the opening of Monday’s session, as it largely occurred within one-minute. A bearish pullback began immediately after the high was reached. This might mean that the failed breakout has less of a lagging effect than it might otherwise if demand was stronger initially. Nonetheless, key support remains the 20-Day MA, which is now at $4.04.
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7 hours ago
Oil Market Update - multi-year standoff looking set to end soon in a dramatic manner...
By: Clive Maund | March 10, 2025
This is the first Oil Market update for a very long time, a big reason for which is that, apart from a significant runup in 2022 that was followed by a drop of equal magnitude, oil has done little and is virtually unchanged from its price early in 2021. The reason for this update now is that it looks like the long stalemate is going to end soon with a big move that, barring a major war in the Mid-East, is expected to be to the downside.
As many of you are surely aware the world is tipping into the most serious economic depression in history which is caused by the exponentially expanding debt that has now arrived at the point of total saturation and all the continued issuance of debt will do is guarantee a hyperinflationary depression. While Trump is trying to rein it in, even with the best will in the world you can’t fix a problem that was decades in the making in the space of a month or 6 months or even several years. A hyperinflationary depression, or an economic implosion if debt issuance is choked off, means that the economy is contracting and people are getting poorer, which in turn means that there will be less demand for oil – much less. So, unless the powers that be decide they are going to attack Iran to please Israel and see what happens, the oil price looks set to break lower and crater and the charts show that this could happen soon. This was all predicted many years ago by Elliott Wave theorist Robert Prechter in his youth as the end of an epochal “Grand Supercycle”.
The Fed of course has done a stirling job of propping up the stock market up to now despite the rotten economy by creating money out of thin air in gargantuan quantities to throw at propping up the debt market but it’s gotten so extreme that they are “pushing on a piece of string” and as we have seen, the stock market has started to roll over and taking on a more definitely bearish appearance. Their largesse has not, however, extended to propping up the international oil market and oil has been in retreat since mid-January to the point that it is threatening to crash a key support level as we will now proceed to see on the charts.
Whilst we cannot understand what is going on looking solely at a 6-month chart, it’s a good point to start as it does show recent action in detail and how the price has been dropping quite steeply since the middle of January to arrive in a zone of important support towards and at the 6-month lows. It is short-term oversold at this support and so could bounce near-term although the decidedly bearish alignment of its moving averages suggests a high probability that it will then turn lower again – if it bounces at all.
Zooming out via the 4-year log chart gives us a much broader perspective. On this chart we see that, apart from a sharp runup to the $128 area early in 2022, which gains were all lost by the end of that year, oil has been range bound for 4 years now from early 2021. So what is this pattern that has formed from early 2021? – to figure that out we will now proceed to look at the 5-year chart that shows us what preceded this pattern.
On the 5-year chart we see that the pattern that has formed in recent years was preceded by a strong uptrend from the ridiculously low level in the Spring of 2020 associated with the Covid psyop and orchestrated mass psychosis involving lockdowns and masks when many deluded people were led to believe that the world was going to come to an end and for some of them who were taken in by it, it has of course. On this chart the pattern that has been forming since early 2021 looks like a giant irregular Head-and-Shoulders top with its protracted Right Shoulder being a bearish Falling Triangle.
Switching to a 5-year log chart throws the potential top pattern of recent years into sharper relief. This chart shows that the oil price has basically gone nowhere for 4 years and also makes even more clear the importance of the support level towards and at the $60 level – if this support level is breached it will be a huge psychological blow that can be expected to lead to a severe downtrend and oil could crater, especially in percentage terms.
On the very long-term chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of the year 2000, we can see that, should oil breach nearby support and drop, its first stop on the way down will be the support level in the $30 - $40 zone which would likely arrest the decline, although after consolidating in this area it could break to still lower levels.
Is there anything that could stop oil breaking down and instead get it moving higher? - well, there is one thing and that would be a major war in the Mid-East involving Iran. Whilst there are powerful vested interests wanting to keep the oil price elevated, it seems a bit outlandish for them to go as far as orchestrating a war with Iran partly for this purpose, although it is perhaps not as far-fetched as many might think. After all, we have many corrupt politicians in Europe wanting to put the continent on a war footing in part for the massive kickbacks that they would surely receive from the defense industry, although these could turn out to be small comfort if Europe ends up being nuked. Barring this scenario, however, oil looks like it is shaping up to drop and drop hard and perhaps soon.
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7 hours ago
Credit Where Credit Is Due. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 10, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said no one gave him credit or the administration credit for falling oil prices or lower interest rates. What that means is that Scott Bessent has not been reading my daily Energy Report. The Phil Flynn Energy Report has indeed pointed out that the Trump Policies will lead to lower prices even as we see challenges in natural gas. Many remain in denial, ignoring that smart energy policies can benefit both the economy and American consumers and energy companies. For years there has been debate about whether presidential policies impact energy prices. The answer is clear, it is yes. Maybe not for every penny up or down in gasoline or crude but policies matter from a production standpoint, from a regulatory standpoint and from an economic growth standpoint.
Biden’s regulatory policies, including the cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline and numerous executive orders aimed at curtailing U.S. oil and gas production, influenced investment in the industry. Additionally, Biden’s use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had effects on U.S. energy producers and future investments needed to meet demand. The administration’s policies show that presidential actions can affect energy prices.
Now under the Trump Administration, we are seeing signs that his policies are reducing oil prices and interest rates for consumers. Despite expectations that tariff threats would lead to a surge in oil prices, they have remained subdued. Trump reduction of geopolitical risk by trying to create peace in Ukraine as well as Iran.
President Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures that he sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week asking that the two leaders “negotiate” over the Islamic republic’s nuclear program. On Saturday, the Iranian leader mentioned the effort by an unnamed “bullying governments” to make a deal over the program. Trump told Maria that, “There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal,” Trump said. “I would prefer to make a deal, because I’m not looking to hurt Iran. They’re great people. I know so many Iranians from this country.”
Concurrently, natural gas prices are rising as Canada threatens to cut off supply and construct a new pipeline. This could result in a natural gas surplus due to the potential loss of their primary customer.
Regulatory changes are expected to lower long-term energy prices, saving consumers billions. Industry professionals are optimistic as the reduced regulatory burden allows them to operate safely and more effectively. They support fair and effective regulations that enables the industry to contribute to the economy.
But natural gas prices were the story last night as they gapped open higher hitting the limit up circuit breaker before cooling off. In fact natural gas prices actually hit the highest level since December 2022 in part because inventories have fallen well below average at a time where the projections of this summer’s temperatures are going to be much warmer than normal and at a time where Canada is continuing to make threats to cut off supplies.
Natural gas prices increased yesterday when former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien endorsed a natural gas pipeline from Alberta to Quebec. He stated that, “If necessary, the governments can consider going further,” by affecting the American economy “by imposing an export tax on oil, gas, potash, aluminum, and electricity.” Canada could then use the funds from the export tax to build infrastructure needed in Canada, for instance, to construct a natural gas pipeline from Alberta to Quebec. This move may require Canada to find new customers for its natural gas products. Chrétien referred to the U.S. as the most powerful country in the world built upon a rules-based order that has brought peace and prosperity.
Chrétien’s threat was inspiring. Some were disappointed there was no mention of extending the pipeline through Quebec. They need to lift another tariff between provinces. He even mentioned that Ben Franklin went to Montreal to try to get Canada to join the American Revolution. And while he seemed proud about that, in retrospect it was probably a bad move for Canada.
Additionally, Ontario’s threatened 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. could increase prices for 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan, and New York. Trump may be able to offset that somewhat. In the short term US buyers will try to find cheaper sources but we are going to have some issues with supply constraints and grids and such but this type of price spike from Canada could do long term damage because the US will find other ways to provide that energy to these areas. So Canada has to be very careful and they’re going to lose their best customer and if they lose their best customer they’re going to have to build more than one pipeline if they want to sell their gas.
A recent cold snap resulted in the fourth-largest withdrawal from U.S. natural gas storage, with January withdrawals nearly reaching 1 trillion cubic feet. Inventories are 4% below the previous five-year average after being 6% above at the start of the heating season.
The U.S. is considering a plan to disrupt Iran’s oil transportation by halting vessels at sea.
The Premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, threatened to cut off energy supplies to the U.S. if President-elect Donald Trump implements proposed tariffs on Canadian goods. This highlights potential trade conflicts between the two nations. “We will go to the full extent depending on how far this goes. We will consider cutting off their energy supplies to Michigan, New York State, and Wisconsin,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said following a virtual meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other provincial premiers to discuss Trump’s tariff threat. “I don’t want this to happen, but my priority is to protect Ontario, Ontarians, and Canadians as a whole since we are the largest province.”
In November, Trump threatened to impose a blanket 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico unless the countries address the flow of drugs and unauthorized migrants to the U.S..
Bloomberg reported that Ukraine claimed a strike on an oil refinery owned by Rosneft PJSC in Russia’s Samara region, continuing attacks on a key industry on almost on a daily basis. Drones hit the Novokuibyshevsk refinery overnight, a Ukrainian security official said, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. The facility is of “a strategic importance” for the Russian army as it ensures “a stable supply of fuel for military operations,” Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Propaganda, said in a post on Telegram. Rosneft didn’t immediately respond to a request for a comment and it wasn’t possible to independently verify Ukraine’s claims. Samara regional governor Vyacheslav Fedorischev said in a post on social network VK that three Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight in the town of Novokuibyshevsk, with no fire or damage registered.
Oil prices are still locked in the range but building the base for a catapult higher when the seasonality’s kick in later in the month. Natural gas is in an explosive upward move but maybe a bit ahead of itself. As we have talked about for some time, natural gas prices are being influenced not only by the fact that we use more natural gas this year than we have in the years past but also by the fact that we have seen projections for a much warmer summer than normal. that means it will be more difficult to get supplies built up ahead of next winter.
Fox Weather reports that millions in the Midwest and Southeast may face another severe weather outbreak this week. March typically marks the beginning of the active spring severe weather season, and this renewed risk comes after a deadly severe weather outbreak swept across the nation last week. This week, forecasters will monitor the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as we approach the middle of the week and again as we get ready to welcome the weekend.
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2 days ago
WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 153.7k, up 12.5k.
Last September, West Texas Intermediate crude ticked $65.27 and bottomed; it had come under pressure after tagging $84.52 in July. Horizontal support at $65-$66 goes back years. After defense of this support in September, the crude then rallied to $78.46 in October and $79.39 in January. Since that weekly shooting star high, it has dropped for seven weeks in a row.
This week, the crude gave back 3.9 percent to $67.04/barrel, with Wednesday’s intraday low of $65.22. Once again, oil bulls stepped up in defense of $65-$66. A rally is likely. Immediately ahead, there is horizontal resistance at $68. This will be followed by $71-$72, which makes up the lower bound of a months-long range with the upper bound at $81-$82. This range was broken last September.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to February 28 increased 6,000 barrels per day w/w to 13.508 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6. Crude imports dropped 106,000 b/d to 5.8 mb/d. As did gasoline and distillate inventory which decreased 1.4 million barrels and 1.3 million barrels respectively to 246.8 million barrels and 119.2 million barrels. Crude stocks, however, increased 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization fell six-tenths of a percentage point to 85.9 percent.
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2 days ago
NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 8, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened lower and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 6822. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 2 trading sessionsNonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators.
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 7314. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6856 and support forming below at 6677. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 13th at 7939, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 18th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 8 weeks reaching a high during the week of January 13th at 7939. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 7 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 17.84% in a stark panic type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of January 13th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7288 made back during the week of November 4th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 7th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This decline has been rather important penetrating the previous low formed at 6653 yet the market closed above it just cleaning out the stops. This does not yet imply a shift in trend. We need to close below the previous low just technically to raise that possibility. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2024. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of January at 6836. The fact that the market for February close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. Currently, March has traded as rallied to exceed the previous month's high reaching 7518.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7939 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 8767 back during April 2024. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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3 days ago
Natural Gas Faces Bearish Pressure After Resistance Test
By: Bruce Powers | March 7, 2025
• Natural gas pulled back after testing resistance, with support at $3.97 in focus. However, a move above $4.43 could signal renewed bullish momentum.
Natural gas fell to a three-day low of $4.13 on Friday, indicating that it might pull back further to test lower support levels. A breakdown of an inside day was triggered today with a drop below $4.25, while further weakness was shown by a decline below Wednesday’s low of $4.23. This is a bearish price action reflecting short-term downward pressure. It follows a new trend high of $4.55 that was reached on Tuesday thereby testing resistance around a top rising trend channel line. Resistance was seen around that line several times before.
Dynamics of Pullback May Provide Clues
Until today, a bullish continuation was possible as resistance around the top channel line continued to be tested over the past couple of days and resistance was retained. The subsequent bearish decline today, however, makes a deeper pullback more likely prior to a new breakout attempt. But that will also depend on what happens next.
Key Trend Support at 20-Day MA
The obvious potential trend support area is represented by the 20-Day MA, now at $3.97. Notice that it aligns with an internal uptrend line. Together, they represent a more significant possible dynamic support area. A pullback prior to another bullish breakout attempt would be normal and healthy for the developing bull trend.
Recent bullish indications that support an eventual move higher, include a sharp bounce off support on Monday defined by the convergence of the 50% retracement, the 20-Day MA, and the 50-Day MA. Moreover, the 20-Day line crossed above the 50-Day line, and natural gas reached a new trend high. This behavior shows strong underlying demand. However, if there is a decline below the 20-Day MA and natural gas stays below it or keeps falling, the near-term outlook and a chance for a new trend high begins to fade.
Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern Supports Further Upside
This week will end with a bullish engulfing pattern that is also a key reversal week. Where the price of natural gas ends the week may provide additional insight. A weekly closing price above last week’s high of $4.19 would confirm the weekly breakout, but a close above the three-week high and prior trend high at $4.48, would show greater strength. Despite the potential for a deeper bearish decline, that would begin to change on a sharp rise above today’s high at $4.43. This could be of particular interest if the day ends with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.
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4 days ago
Crude Oil Tests Support After 19% Decline, Reversal Possible
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2025
• Oil prices remain under pressure but may see a bounce after finding support near prior lows, while a weekly closing below $66.37 could confirm long-term weakness.
Crude oil consolidated on Thursday following a new retracement low of $65.40 that was reached on Wednesday. It is on track to end today with an inside day. Wednesday’s low completed a $15.36 or 19% decline from the January swing high of $80.76. This makes the current bearish correction the largest of the four prior corrections on a percentage basis.
The four most recent bearish corrections ranged from a decline of 14.8% to 18.3%. On that basis alone crude oil should be close to a potential bottom that could lead to at least a bounce. In addition, support for the decline was seen by a prior trend low support level reached in September at $65.65. Also, notice that the low of this week found support near the lower trendline of a declining channel.
On Track for Lowest Weekly Close in Almost Two Years
Of concern is the weekly closing price for this week. A weekly closing price below $67.22 would be the lowest weekly closing price since March 2023, while a close below $66.37 would be the lowest weekly closing price since August 2021. This would be a bearish sign on a larger time frame and would further confirm recent bearish indications.
At Risk of Bearish Continuation of Long-term Downtrend
Moreover, recent bearish price action along with a test of prior long-term support suggests the possibility of an eventual breakdown to new lows. Given a successful test of support at prior long-term lows and the bottom channel line for the current downswing, it seems likely that a bounce to test resistance within the current decline may come first. That could eventually lead to a larger bullish reversal. But until that time the downtrend can be expected to retain its boundaries and could lead to a bearish continuation.
Bounce Possible Above $67.25
Since today is an inside day, an initial bullish reversal signal will be generated on a rally above the high for the day at $67.25. Previous support around $68.10 becomes the first upside target. That target area is marked by an uptrend line, a prior interim swing low from December, and a prior minor trend low from last week. Higher up is potential resistance around the 20-Day MA trend indicator. It is currently at $70.60 and falling.
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4 days ago
Natural Gas Consolidates Near Highs, Poised for Breakout Move
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2025
• Natural gas holds near trend highs, testing key resistance while consolidation tightens. A breakout move is likely, but direction remains uncertain amid technical signals.
Natural gas continued to consolidate near recent highs on Thursday, and it is set to close lower for the day and as an inside day. At the time of this writing, the high for the day was $4.47 and the low $4.25. Today would be the second consecutive inside day and it reflects a tightening of consolidation. Therefore, there is the potential for a sharp move in the direction of the breakout of the inside days.
Since Thursday will likely end as an inside day, Wednesday’s high of $4.52 and the low of $4.23 provide the outside price range for the past two days. It should provide more reliable price levels for signals versus Thursday’s price range.
New Trend High Stalled Advance
A new trend high of $4.55 was reached on Tuesday and the day ended with natural gas in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the day’s trading range. Moreover, the closing price was the second highest level for the bull trend, but it was not the highest.
That is not a convincing response to a new bull breakout as it shows short-term weakness, rather than improving strength. Then, on Wednesday a new closing daily high was established at $4.52. And Wednesday’s high of $4.52 completed another test of resistance around a top trend channel line that marked a resistance zone for the three most recent rallies.
Top Channel Line Remains Resistance
Previous attempts to break out above the channel line have failed. This would seem to put greater weight on the possibility of a bearish retracement rather than a bullish continuation. Nonetheless, the behavior of natural gas around key near-term price levels mentioned above will provide clues.
Although demand remains relatively strong given the two days of consolidation that further tested resistance around the channel line, a sustained upside breakout and a continuation of the bull trend may have greater success following a pullback first, or a longer rest in consolidation.
Bullish Weekly Price Action
On the weekly time frame natural gas showed strength this week. This week’s rally began following an initial bearish move to test support at a confluence zone that is marked by several indicators. Of significance is the 50-Day MA, now at $3.77. That line was joined by the 20-Day MA and a 50% retracement level. It was the first real test of support at the 50-Day line since it was reclaimed on February 13.
Having both the 20-Day and 50-Day lines converged around the support zone likely contributed to the sharp rally once it was tested as support. Subsequently, a weekly bull breakout triggered on a rise above last week’s high of $4.19. This seems to be supportive of a bullish continuation of the rising trend above $4.55. If so, the $4.70 area is the next upside target.
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4 days ago
Trump and Dump. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 6, 2025
Trumping Oil. Oil got Trumped and dumped. While many people feared that President Trump aggressive trade negotiations would raise the price of oil, so far oil has been Trumped and dumped. Oil prices have defied some analysts fears that Trump would increase prices with his trade threats but so far the opposite seems to be happening. President Trump, with a mix of peace negotiations coupled with relaxing regulations on the oil and gas industry, has caused the price of oil drop even as our trade partners have to raise their tariffs on oil and gas and even cut off their exports.
Now today breaking news may bring oil a bid after a Reuters exclusive reported that the US is mulling a plan to disrupt Iran’s oil by halting vessels at sea. In recent weeks Iran’s oil exports have surged and President Trump, unlike the previous Administration, is looking at ways to clamp down on Iran oil trade. The latest in that effort as reported by Reuters includes considering this more aggressive action. Supply from Iran to China rebounded to 1.4 million bpd in the period February 1-20, after falling close to a two-year low below 800,000 bpd in January, Vortexa data showed. Shandong-bound Iranian volumes surpassed 1.1 million bpd and exceeded the 2024 average, the data showed. Kpler data showed Iranian crude arrivals in China rose to 771,000 bpd in February, up from 692,000 bpd in January.
Reuters reported that, “President Donald Trump’s administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under an international accord aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Trump has vowed to restore a “maximum pressure” campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and drive its oil exports to zero, in order to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Trump hit Iran with two waves of fresh sanctions in the first weeks of his second-term, targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers that sail without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries. Those moves have largely been in line with the limited measures implemented during Joe Biden’s administration, when Iran succeeded in ramping up oil exports through complex smuggling networks. Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes, according to six sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject.
President Trump also met with Canadian Prime Minter Trudeau and announced that he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico, just a day after the tariffs came into effect. On Truth Social President Trump said, “For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!”
Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith, said she is halting Alberta’s purchase of U.S. goods, alcohol and gambling machines. That may be a blow to Canadians that want to bet on the hockey playoffs or want a Jack and coke. Yet Trump’s tariffs are leading to more fair trade and has made the Alberta premier see the light. Apparently Alberta is very upset that the United States is putting tariffs on her province, she has come to the realization that Alberta basically puts tariffs on her countrymen and other provinces. She is now lifted her tariffs on British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and even New Brunswick. So, it seems that Trumps policies have expanded free trade in Canada! Free Canada!
This comes as President Trump is sending a message to the Hamas terror group to release the hostages or else. While many other countries seem to be falling all over themselves to support Ukraine, they seem oblivious to supporting Israel that saw a heinous and horrendous attack from Hamas on innocent civilians including the torture of woman and children. President Trump, whom Benjamin Netanyahu called the best friend Israel ever had, has had enough.
On Truth Social President Trump said, ““Shalom Hamas” means Hello and Goodbye – You can choose. Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you. Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted! I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say. I have just met with your former Hostages whose lives you have destroyed. This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance. Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD! Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”
Oil inventories were taken as a bit bearish but the drop in runs is seasonal. Demand was impressive. The drop in price should give us a good place to put on the seasonal trades for the Easter run-up.
Reuters reported that, “Mexican state company Pemex is in talks with potential buyers in Asia, including China, and Europe, as it seeks alternative markets for its crude after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports, a senior Mexican government official said. Trump this week implemented 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. While Canadian crude won an exception of a 10% levy, Mexican crude is to be taxed at 25%.
Natural gas exploded on cold weather and natural gas threat from Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith: “Alberta happens to have one of the largest deposits of oil and natural gas on the planet. It is significantly larger and far more accessible than the quickly declining oil and gas reserves located in the United States.” “Whether the US President wishes to admit it or not, the United States not only needs our oil and gas today, they are also going to need it more and more with each passing year once they notice their declining domestic reserves and production are wholly insufficient.”
Maybe today! But not tomorrow. John Kemp Energy reported that, “in contrast to oil, U.S. gas production is likely to increase significantly in 2025, after prices more than doubled in real terms from the multi-decade low in the first quarter of 2024. Dry gas production declined slightly to an average of 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2024 from 103.6 bcf/d in 2023. Front-month futures prices slumped to an average of less than $1.80 per million British thermal units in March 2024, the lowest since futures trading began in 1990, after adjusting for inflation.
Since then, however, prices have more than doubled to an average of $3.74 in February 2025, putting them in the 29th percentile for all months since 1990 in real terms. Falling production, combined with record consumption from gas-fired generators, growth in exports, and the coldest winter for six years, has tightened supplies sharply. Surplus inventories in March 2024 inherited from the very mild winter of 2023/24 had been transformed into a large and widening deficit by February 2025.
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4 days ago
EIA Natural Gas Storage Draw Of -80 Bcf Misses Estimates
By: Vladimir Zernov | March 6, 2025
Key Points:
• Working gas in storage decreased by -80 Bcf from the previous week.
• At current levels, stocks are -224 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
• Natural gas tests support at $4.25 - $4.30.
On March 6, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage declined by -80 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst forecast of -96 Bcf. In the previous week, working gas in storage decreased by -261 Bcf.
More information in our economic calendar
At current levels, stocks are -585 Bcf less than last year and -224 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
Natural gas prices moved lower after the release of the report. Storage draw missed analyst expectations, which may serve as a bearish catalyst for natural gas markets.
Traders will also continue to monitor the tariff drama. Falling exports from Canada provided material support to natural gas markets in recent trading sessions. In case the U.S. and Canada manage to come up with a deal which reduces or eliminates tariffs, natural gas markets may find themselves under more pressure.
From the technical point of view, natural gas is trying to settle below the support at $4.25 – $4.30. In case this attempt is successful, natural gas will head towards the next support level, which is located in the $4.00 – $4.05 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
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5 days ago
Natural Gas Poised for New Highs or Pullback from Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | March 5, 2025
• Natural gas consolidates near key resistance, with potential for a breakout above $4.55 or a pullback toward support at $4.06 and $3.88.
Natural gas is on track to complete an inside day on Wednesday, following another test of resistance around a top trend channel line earlier in the trading session. The high for the day was $4.52 and the low was $4.23. A breakout through either price level may lead to a continuation in the direction of the breakout.
If an upside breakout triggers, then the trend high from Tuesday at $4.55 may be challenged and a bull trend continuation signal would trigger on a move above that high. In addition to the bullish pattern of a rising trend, natural gas is on track to end the day at its highest daily closing price for the current advance, and the highest price since mid-December 2022.
Above $4.55 Triggers Trend Breakout
If the $4.55 price level is exceeded, then natural gas could reach the next higher target zone around $4.70 to $4.72. Subsequently, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline that began from the 2022 peak of $10.03 is at $4.77. Since that measurement is based on a long-term pattern, it is potentially significant with a good chance that strong resistance might be seen there.
Rising ABCD Pattern Formed
The advance from the late-January swing low of $2.99 is in its second leg up following a clear test of support on Monday at the day’s low of $3.74. That low generated a higher swing low. There is the confluence of several indicators identifying the $3.74 price zone as potentially significant support. Given the sharp advance since that swing low. Including a breakout to a new trend high yesterday, natural gas seems to be indicating it may go higher and possibly break out to a new trend high.
When adding a rising ABCD pattern (purple) to the current advance, it shows a potential initial target at the 78.6% extension of $4.93. Whether it is reached or not, the ABCD pattern shows the potential for higher prices. Possible targets from the ABCD pattern are identified when there is price symmetry between the CD leg of the pattern and the AB leg, or a harmonic relationship between the two swings. The targets identify potential resistance levels.
Drop Below $4.23 May Lead Lower
Alternatively, a decline below today’s low of $4.23 will show short-term weakness that could lead to a lower pullback to test support levels. Tuesday’s low at $4.06 could see support and if it fails, a test of the 20-Day MA at $3.88 currently, becomes possible.
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5 days ago
Crude Oil Continues to Plunge
By: Christopher Lewis | March 5, 2025
• The crude oil market continues to look very soft, as we are now looking to break below the overall three year range.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
The light sweet crude oil market fell pretty significantly during the trading session on Wednesday to threaten the major support level that I think a lot of us will continue to watch in general. With that being the case, I think you have to accept the fact that perhaps the crude oil market just can’t be traded right now.
There is an argument to be made for this and I do think that traders will probably continue to assume that the recession, of course is going to be a major problem, but sooner or later one would expect there’s a bounce. So, I am definitely watching this market but in the last couple of days I’ve even suggested that we might have a bit of a bounce, but we just don’t have the momentum.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
The Brent markets look very much the same as we are breaking through the $70 level, the $70 level, of course, is an area that we need to pay close attention to. And therefore, we are plunging in this area. I think you have a situation where a little bit of a bounce could come, but again, we didn’t get the follow through to break above the top of the hammer.
So again, you just want to stand on the sidelines and let this thing fall until it stops falling. Demand will pick up later this year. So, I do think that we are getting closer to the end than not, but I don’t need to be the first trader to jump in and start buying hand over fist in a market that’s been plunging for some time.
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5 days ago
Oil Price Diplomacy. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 5, 2025
Oil prices are under pressure as a diplomatic push by President Donald Trump could remove sanctions on Russian and create an off ramp for Iranian sanction’s brokered by none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin and enhance global supplies.
Reuters reported earlier this week that the White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be used by U.S. officials to discuss with Russian representatives in the coming days as part of the administration’s broad talks with Moscow on improving diplomatic and economic relations, the sources said. So, it’s not just drill baby drill to bring down prices but also diplomacy that is keeping the crude oil price in check.
The US just cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine in a move that shows the White House’s disgust with Ukraine President Zelensky. This comes after Newsweek reported that, “The White House is pushing back after a Reuters report on Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s administration and Ukraine intend to sign the highly scrutinized minerals deal. Fox News’ Jacqui Heinrich, the network’s senior White House correspondent, reported on X, formerly Twitter, that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News, “There is no signing planned.” Also on Tuesday, multiple sources told CBS News that a deal is not finalized. The network also reported that Trump is now holding out for a “bigger, better deal.” Reuters reported that it spoke to four sources familiar with the matter.
While the market looks weak on the downside, many people are talking about the fact that OPEC’s production increases may signal that the market is very tight if you get back to supply and demand. The oil market is still has an inventory below average and this could be the final washout before the seasonal rally begins. This time, as global petroleum demand hit a record high, ERG Energy, a Houston-based power generation giant, plans to build four new natural gas power plants to supply data centers in Texas and elsewhere, according to a Wednesday announcement.
This comes as Maureen Malik at Bloomberg wrote that the demand for the Texas power grid is expected to expand so immensely that it would take the equivalent of adding 30 nuclear plants’ worth of electricity by 2030 to meet the needs. That’s according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the grid. The forecast is based on the addition of new data centers needed to power artificial
intelligence. And it’s raising concerns about whether infrastructure in the state will be able to expand fast enough — and at what cost.
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6 days ago
Crude Oil Rebounds from $66.96 – Is the Correction Over?
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2025
• After testing support near $66.96, crude oil surged intraday. A decisive breakout above $71.11 could signal a reversal and challenge higher resistance.
Crude oil extended its bearish correction on Tuesday to a new trend low of $66.96. Subsequently, buyers took control and drove the price up to new highs for the day. At the time of this writing, crude oil hit a high of $68.66 for the day as it tested resistance around a trendline that marked the bottom of a prior consolidation phase.
Notice that the market recognized the line on the way down as support was seen at the line last Wednesday and it was followed by a bounce. Crude oil continues to trade near the high prices of the day and may complete a bullish dragonfly doji or hammer candlestick pattern if it remains in a similar position at the close of the session.
Breakout Above Tuesday’s High
A decisive breakout above today’s high would trigger a one-day bullish reversal breakout and put crude in a position to challenge higher trend resistance areas. The potentially more significant resistance zone is first around the 20-Day MA, now at $71.11.
For crude to have a shot of going higher and potentially reversing the bearish trend it needs to first get above and stay above the 20-Day line. That moving average can be viewed along with the downtrend line marking dynamic resistance for the decline. A decisive breakout above the line would put crude in a position to challenge potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, which is $73.23 currently.
Bounce off Monthly Support
It is important to consider several key factors when addressing support at the daily low point. Support was seen near an interim swing low of $66.86 from mid-November, and near the lower channel line for the current decline. That November support level was also a monthly low. Although the lower line was not hit specifically, the correction got close enough given the subsequent bullish reaction.
Moreover, a measured move for the correction shows a $13.79 or 17.1% decline from the most recent swing high at $80.76. The four prior bearish corrections in crude oil ranged from a decline of 14.8% to 18.3%. Since the current decline was close to matching the largest recent drop on a percentage basis, it provides another piece of evidence to support the likely completion of the correction. The fact that a sharp intraday bullish reversal followed further supports this thesis.
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6 days ago
Natural Gas Tests Key Resistance After Rally to $4.55
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2025
• Natural gas surged to a trend high, triggering a bull signal. If momentum holds, prices may break higher, but resistance near $4.77 could limit gains.
Natural gas rallied to a new trend high of $4.55 on Tuesday, before hitting resistance that led to an intraday pullback. Resistance was seen around the 50% retracement of a long-term internal downtrend and around a top trendline or a rising channel. Notice that each of the prior two advances met resistance around that top line of the channel as well. This may indicate a couple of things. Either the price zone marked by the two indicators continues to show signs of resistance, or the bulls bust through it and natural gas heads towards the next higher potential resistance zone.
Upside Channel Breakout Possible
An upside breakout would signal a breakout of the rising parallel channel that shows some degree of symmetry within the price structure of the uptrend. Caution is warranted as there is a strong risk of a false breakout. Nonetheless, the next higher target zone is from around $4.70 to $4.72, derived from two extended Fibonacci levels. A little higher is a potential significant target zone as it would complete a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline that began following the $10.03 peak in 2022. The 38.2% level is at $4.77.
Bullish Monthly Signal
Today’s rally triggered a bull trend continuation signal on the monthly chart (not shown) as last month’s high of $4.78 was exceeded. A daily close above that high will provide some confirmation of strength indicated by the upside breakout. Moreover, notice the pullback to a new retracement low of $3.74 on Monday that occurred before buyers stepped in and took back control.
A decisive bull breakout of a small wedge followed, and the day ended in a strong position near the highs of the day. Can demand remain strong enough for a breakout through the top of the channel? Possibly. But it may then quickly run out of bullish momentum. However, it will depend on whether it occurs before a minor pullback or not.
Slingshot Setup
The initial decline yesterday that occurred before a sharp rally was a clue that bullish momentum could accelerate. There was a confluence of several indicators around that price area, including the 50-Day MA, 20-Day MA, and 50% retracement. When multiple indicators point to a similar price it tends to be significant.
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6 days ago
It’s A Myth. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 4, 2025
As I have said before, it’s a myth that tariffs are inflationary. President Donald Trump took that a step further by declaring that, “It’s a myth” that tariffs are largely paid for by consumers through higher prices. That point seems to be true especially when you are gaging the reaction to the tariff news with today’s commodity prices and the reaction to so many historic events. Not only tariffs but some out of the box thinking of foreign policy that could lift sanctions on Russia and potentially Iran at the same time with a new Trump driven nuclear deal.
While the announced sanctions on Mexico Canada and China have caused some prices to rise, they have caused other prices to fall. Which means the impact on overall inflation should be minimal. Yes, some goods may be more expensive for consumers, but others may be cheaper because inflation is not caused by tariffs or taxes but by government money printing, fraud, waste and corruption. So, if you can reduce that, then you can reduce inflation.
Oil prices are down big partly because of the OPEC decision to follow through with their production increase in April and it’s a fact that sanctions will make gas prices rise in the Northeast and California. Yet other parts of the country may see a decrease because of falling oil prices. Gas Buddy reports that gasoline and diesel prices in ME, CT, VT, MA, RI, NH are likely to begin rising today- pace will vary- but by mid-March could be 20-40c/gal higher. Jumps may stretch into NY as well. Wholesale prices as already started to rise in this area. Tom Kloza reported that it looks like the tariff shoes are dropping in New England. Reports indicate Irving Oil is hiking U.S. gasoline and diesel wholesale postings by 20cts/gal or more.
Yet we know the biggest cost associated with the gallon of gasoline is the price of an oil. So, after the price jump, if oil stays down, then the price spike may be short lived.
Consumers may see lower food costs as grain prices drop, except for oats from Canada due to China’s tariff on US grain. While some food products from Canada and Mexico, like meat and fresh vegetables, might be more expensive. Other grains like corn and soybeans will be cheaper. According to the USDA, 77% of fresh vegetables were imported from Mexico and 11% from Canada in 2020.
Copper prices surged yesterday due to positive Chinese economic data but are now falling due to tariff prospects, potentially lowering some consumer goods’ prices. Lumber prices rose but might decrease today with declining oil prices. Add to that unconventional fright policy from President Trump that could see ceasefire deal in Ukraine along with Russia negotiating a nuclear deal for the US with Iran that could lead to a softening of sanctions on Russia and potentially drive down oil prices and free up some natural gas for Europe that they are desperately in need of.
This comes as OPEC moves ahead with what they call a gradual and flexible return of 2.2 mbd voluntary adjustments starting on 1st April. The reason is that Saudi Arabia gave into pressure not only from Russia and the UAE but also the diplomacy of President Trump. Yet at the same time OPEC says that they see healthy market fundamentals and a positive outlook for demand going forward.
Beyond tariffs, there’s the potential for a peace dividend. President Trump is working on a nuclear deal with Iran through Putin, hinting that strict sanctions might be avoided. Putin’s connections with Iran could help secure a deal, keeping Iranian oil available. Meanwhile, diesel and gasoline crack spreads have slightly rebounded, indicating stable demand despite tariffs.
This comes at a time when we should start getting the refiners geared up for the upcoming summer driving season. The American Petroleum Institute report comes out today and we expect to see slight builds across the board. But after that get ready for some big draws in the weeks ahead.
Natural gas prices are already looking ahead to summer. Not only are we seeing the European inventories at generously low levels reports that this summer here in the United states by some weather forecasters could be warmer and drier than normal is causing the market to show some strength. The natural gas market seems to be shaking off its doom and gloom about the future and it’s now embracing the much tighter market than the market thought imaginable just a few months ago.
Oil Price reported, “U.S. natural gas futures jumped in Monday’s early trading session, rebounding from recent lows driven by robust export flows and strong demand forecasts. Henry hub gas was trading at $3.98 per MMBtu at 11.25 am ET, up from a two-week low of $3.74 per MMBtu a week ago. U.S. LNG exports hit a fresh record 15.6 bcfd in February, boosted by new units at Venture Global’s (NYSE:VG) Plaquemines plant. The Arlington, Virginia-based LNG exporter commenced LNG production at its Plaquemines LNG plant 30 months after the final investment decision (FID) was made, making the plant with a 20 mtpa nameplate capacity one of the two fastest greenfield projects to reach first production. Once fully operational, Plaquemines will be among the largest LNG facilities in the world, featuring 36 electrically-driven 0.626 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) liquefaction trains, configured in eighteen blocks.
The U.S. is rapidly developing LNG plants to meet Europe’s surging demand for the commodity. Two weeks ago, Cheniere Energy, for the first time, started producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the first train (Train 1) of its Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project. As of Nov. 30, the overall project completion for the project was close to 76%; however, the company expects substantial completion achieved at the end of the first quarter of 2025. The project consists of seven midscale trains, projected to produce over 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG.
Meanwhile, gas demand in the Lower 48 states is projected to be higher than previously anticipated despite milder weather expected through March 18. Also, stockpiles remain about 12% below the five-year average due to earlier extreme cold. U.S. gas output hit a fresh record of 104.7 bcfd in February.
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6 days ago
Natural Gas Rebounds, Signals Strength with Key Reversal Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | March 3, 2025
• With a key support zone holding firm, natural gas reversed higher, breaking out of a bullish wedge and setting sights on resistance at $4.37 and $4.56.
Natural gas triggered a one-day bullish reversal on Monday following a successful test of support earlier in the trading session. Unless there is a sharp fall before the end of the day, a key reversal day pattern will be complete. Monday’s opening price was below Friday’s low of $3.81 and today’s closing price will likely be above Friday’s high of $3.95.
Also, today’s closing price will likely be the highest daily closing price in four days, another sign of strength. The key reversal day shows strength and improving demand. Trading continues to be strong at the time of this writing, as natural gas remains in the upper quarter or so of the day’s trading range. Currently, the high of the day was $4.17.
Strong Support Leads to Rising Prices
Strong support was seen from the day’s low of $3.74. It is a price area discussed over the past week or so as being potentially a significant support zone since it marks an area of confluence. The 20-MA is at $3.76, there is a 50% retracement level at $3.73, and the 50-Day MA line is at $3.73. Given the bullish reaction, it looks clear that the price zone was recognized. Therefore, a bearish retracement might have completed today, opening the way for a continuation towards resistance at recent highs and possibly new trend highs.
Bearish Retracement Looks Complete
The next sign of strength will be on a rally above the five-day high and prior interim swing high at $4.19. That is also a weekly high from last week. There is then a potential resistance zone from the January high at $4.37 to the February high at $4.48. It is interesting to note that the recent pullback took a form like a falling bullish wedge. A bull breakout triggered today.
This puts natural gas in a bullish position to possibly reach new trend highs. The next higher target is a 50% retracement of a previous interim decline at $4.56. Note the resistance was seen around a top trend channel line at each of the recent swing highs. Nonetheless, depending on how prices rise, natural gas could hit the 50% retracement target and stay below potential resistance around the top trendline.
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1 week ago
Refuse To Bend the Knee. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 3, 2025
Oil prices rise as peace is allusive. Instead of giving peace a chance, Volodymyr Zelensky, blew up the minerals deal and a path to ceasefire. He instead chose to continue the quagmire that is killing his people and destroying his country. President Trump made his position clear and said that “I refuse to bend the knee to their next endless war in Ukraine. I want peace. They want money, and they want conflict. Even if it means walking us to the brink of World War 3.”
Sadly, this war is going to continue, also raising the risk premium on oil. Europe sadly will have to continue to fund this war and will still have to buy natural gas at sharply higher prices. Javier Blas and BLOOMBERG points out that, “Europe starts March with its natural gas storage at ~38.2% of capacity, making it very likely stocks would be at 30-35% by April. Whatever target the EU sets for Nov. 1, absent Russian pipeline gas — big question mark –, it’s going to require a hell of a refile.
Remember that President Trump was laughed at by the left and Europe when he warned about the dangers of Europe becoming dependent on Russia for supply. They are not laughing anymore and because of the short sightedness and their investment in the green new steal (as Kevin Gordan calls it ) it has cost their poor and middle-class money and added to their misery.
BP last week acknowledged their failures and their “beyond petroleum” push and have moved “back to petroleum” and that should signal an end to the big oil renewable push that has shown no profit and no headway on reducing climate concerns.
On top of that Donald Trump is going to make a big announcement tomorrow and talk about cryptocurrencies. It’s risk on the back of the market and that’s going to give oil some significant support. With the expectation of the stock market to move higher, the backdrop for oil is very strong. Seasonally speaking the end of March is traditionally very strong for all crude oil and products so take advantage of any weakness to put-on long-term positions.
The Energy Information Administration is reporting that Natural gas continues to hold in there after getting beat up on the warmup.
The Energy Information Administration is reporting that Refinery closures and rising consumption will reduce U.S. petroleum inventories in 2026 In 2026, EIA forecasts that inventories of the three largest transportation fuels in the United States—motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel—will fall to their lowest levels since the year 2000.
EIA says that Two pending refinery closures will reduce U.S. production of refined petroleum products. When combined with our forecast of growing consumption, we expect inventories for the three fuels to decline through 2026. We forecast inventories for these fuels will end next year at 375 million barrels, the lowest since 2000 when they ended the year at 358 million barrels.
Inventory withdrawals tend to increase wholesale and retail fuel prices because market participants must meet demand by competing for a smaller pool of refinery production. As a result, we also forecast wholesale refinery margins for the three fuels will increase. In our forecast, however, these wider margins are partially offset by falling crude oil prices, leading to relatively smaller increases in retail fuel prices or even a decline in retail gasoline prices.
Reuters reported that – U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he was reversing a license given to Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab to operate in Venezuela by his predecessor Joe Biden more than two years ago, accusing President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he was “reversing the concessions” of the “oil transaction agreement, dated November 26, 2022.”
Fox Weather is reporting that, “Tens of millions of people across the U.S. from the Plains to the Southeast are preparing for a potential multiday severe weather outbreak this week, with forecasters warning of threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts and even some strong tornadoes. Strong thunderstorms rolled across Oklahoma and Texas to end the weekend on Sunday, but the FOX Forecast Center said the more significant severe weather threat will begin late Monday and last through at least Wednesday.
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1 week ago
WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 1, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 141.3k, down 34.3k.
Last week, after six consecutive weekly losses, West Texas Intermediate crude was at risk of continued downward momentum until crucial support from last September’s low was tested. This did occur on Wednesday this week as a rising trendline from back then was successfully tested with a session low of $68.36. The week ended lower 0.9 percent to $69.76/barrel, forming a weekly long-legged doji.
The daily can rally, and for that to happen, oil bulls need to reclaim the months-long $71-$72 and $81-$82 range, which was breached last September, the sooner the better. On Thursday, the crude rallied up to $70.54 before giving back some of the gains on Friday.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to February 21 increased 5,000 barrels per day w/w to 13.502 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since reaching a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6. Crude imports rose as well, up 99,000 b/d to 5.9 mb/d. As did gasoline and distillate inventory which increased 369,000 barrels and 3.9 million barrels respectively to 248.3 million barrels and 120.5 million barrels. Crude stocks, however, decreased 2.3 million barrels to 430.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization grew 1.6 percentage points to 86.5 percent.
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1 week ago
NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 6976 is immediately trading down about 2.73% for the year from last year's settlement of 7172. This price action here in March is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7117 and support forming below at 6868. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 13th at 7939, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 18th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 7012. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of January 13th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7288 made back during the week of November 4th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 7th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 6653 made the week of November 18th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2024. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of January at 6836. The fact that the market for February close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. Currently, February has traded as rallied to exceed the previous month's high reaching 7518.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7939 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 8767 back during April 2024. Critical support still underlies this market at 6910 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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1 week ago
Natural Gas Extends Bearish Correction, Eyes 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | February 28, 2025
• Natural gas fell to $3.83, confirming a breakdown and targeting lower support levels, with a weak monthly close indicating downward pressure.
Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Friday with a new retracement low of $3.83. It continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and could reach lower prices before the end of the trading session.
Today’s decline confirms the breakdown from an internal rising trendline triggered yesterday, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which is at $3.91. The retracement level held as support for three days before a breakdown triggered yesterday. This puts natural gas in a position to challenge lower potential support levels.
50% Retracement at $3.73
The 50% retracement at $3.73 marks the beginning of a possible support zone that goes down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. Last week’s low at $3.55 marked support for the week and is part of the uptrend price structure of higher weekly highs and higher lows.
It therefore has significance as a drop below it provides a bearish weekly signal and could lead to a drop towards the lower internal uptrend line. Since the weekly low aligns with the 61.8% retracement at $3.56, it deserves extra attention. In addition to a lower trendline target, there is a price zone from $3.32 to $3.31, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 78.6% retracement, respectively.
Price Range From $4.73 to $3.56
Within the $3.73 to $3.56 price range is the 50-Day MA at $3.71. That looks to be the next key potential support level, particularly since the 20-Day MA has converged with the 50-Day as of today. Both moving averages are rising and are on track converge with the 50% retracement level. Unless there is a sharp drop before the end of today’s session, this week will end as an inside week with a closing price near the lows of the range.
Monthly Chart Shows Downward Pressure
Moreover, February ends today with the sixth consecutive month of higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows. However, the month is set to close in a relatively weak position near the midpoint of the month’s trading range, which is $3.82. The prior two months also ended in a relatively weak position, especially January, which closed near the lows for the month. In addition, the 50-Month MA was exceeded over the past few months but in each case the month ended below the 50-Month line, now at $3.85.
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1 week ago
Hesitation. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 27, 2025
West Texas Intermediate oil prices made a run for the 10-day moving average but failed to complete the breakout, keeping us locked in a trading range. Oil prices were hesitant to move higher and break out because of mixed signals like OPEC Plus hesitation as well as a reminder from President Trump that he will not hesitate to enforce tariffs that will out on schedule unless some dramatic changes are made.
Also, President Trump’s peace push is reducing geo-political price risk as he makes a historic agreement with Ukrainian President Zelensky that will make the US a partner in developing Ukraine’s minerals, rare earths, oil and gas and says that he thinks the Russian Ukraine war will end very soon, or it will not end at all.
Yet some are complaining that Ukraine may not have much in the way or rare earth minerals. They do have the potential to increase production of oil and gas in addition to any rare earth minerals that the US can find. President Trump does say that the relationship with Vladimir Zelensky got a little bit testy. Apparently Vladimir doesn’t like being called a dictator, makes him testy. I get it. President Trump also stated that he did not think Putin would invade Ukraine again if they reached a peace agreement with Ukraine. He suggested that Russia and Ukraine could have a strong economic relationship if both nations cooperated. That’s assuming of course Putin gets over his obsession with getting the Old Soviet Union back together and Nato respects its treaties with Russia.
Yesterday oil prices made a run at the 10-day moving average but failed as traders started to wonder if we could see the start of “Oil Trading War III”. Algorithmic traders responded quickly to a headline indicating that OPEC is hesitant about proceeding with an April output increase due to uncertainties surrounding sanctions and tariffs, causing oil prices to rise by almost $0.50. Yet reversed it very quickly afterwards because the next headline read that Russia and the United Arab Emirates still wanted to go ahead with the production increase.
That brought t back memories of past production wars. We all remember the disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia about oil production in the beginning days of COVID that led to a production war that helped prices crash to below ZERO! In recent months the UAE have been chomping at the bid to show their oil production prowess. OPEC has restrained them even as they have given the United Arab Emirates the ability to make up for quotas that other OPEC members just weren’t using. If OPEC delays their production increase, it will be very bullish for oil and oil product prices.
Currently, oil prices are fluctuating within a trading range, but a delay will give prices an upside breakout. Generally, the seasonality of oil, gasoline, and diesel becomes bullish around Easter anyway.
In fact our friends at Moore Research points out to look at the price of August crude oil between March 29th and April 14th. It’s kind of 14 out of the last 15 years. If you look at diesel, for example March 29th to April 14th it’s gone up 13 out of the last 15 years. And those summer blends make me feel fine as we get the April run up in gasoline! Between March 30th and April 15th gasoline futures have gone up 14 out of the last 15 years.
President Trump realizes that the United states is going to need rare earth minerals whether they’re produced here or in other parts of the world. Right now, China of course has a monopoly almost on many better earth minerals. Trump has warned China to quit dumping their products here in the United States and we’ll take action to stop. At at the same time China pledges to stabilize grain prices and may intervene in the market to counter potential tariff threats.
Natural gas is hanging after a bullish report. Cold weather caused a bullish report. Working gas in storage was 1,840 Bcf as of Friday, February 21, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 261 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 561 Bcf less than last year at this time and 238 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,078 Bcf. At 1,840 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Weather fluctuations have been unbelievable causing movement in the futures markets. That is why it is imperative that you download the Fox weather app. Tune in to the Fox Business Network because they are the only network in America that is truly invested in you.
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2 weeks ago
Natural Gas Faces Deeper Pullback Amid Trendline Breakdown
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025
• Natural gas broke key support at $3.91, triggering a bearish continuation. A deeper pullback is likely unless prices reclaim $4.07 and surpass $4.19 resistance.
Natural gas triggered a continuation of a bearish retracement on Thursday as it fell through support from Monday at $3.91. Moreover, today’s decline triggered a breakdown from a rising trendline marking dynamic support for the recent advance. The low of the day at the time of this writing was $3.88 and the day’s high was $4.065, leaving natural gas with a lower daily high and lower daily low for the day. Despite the bearish signal, follow-through is key.
An intraday bounce followed the $3.88 low with natural gas rising above the trendline and into a recent three-day consolidation zone. If today’s session ends above the trendline it will indicate stronger demand that what might be anticipated following a breakdown through key near-term support. Wednesday’s low of $3.94 can be used as a rough proxy for the trendline. Moreover, a daily closing price below the trendline will show sellers remaining in control.
Failed Breakdown on Rally Above $4.07
It is possible that today’s breakdown fails and instead support is retained, leading a rally. A decisive breakout above today’s high of $4.07 would provide a sign of strength that could lead to higher prices. Subsequently, Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would need to be exceeded for additional bullish confirmation. There is a price range of potentially significant resistance around the two most recent swing highs from $4.37 to $4.48.
Deeper Retracement More Likely
Nonetheless, given today’s bearish signal, the more likely scenario to play out is a deeper bearish pullback. Although there is an interim potential support zone around the 50% retracement at $3.73, it also begins a range of potential support going down to a weekly low at $3.55. Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs are rising and may converge with the 50% zone prior to it being tested as support.
If that happens it may provide a more significant support area given the convergence of several indicators. Further, the 20-Day MA is poised to cross above the 50-Day line, providing another sign of strength. Since the 50-Day MA covers a larger trend than the 20-Day line, it is given priority.
It is also interesting to note that on the weekly chart (not shown) support for this week is around the 200-Week MA, now at $3.92. The low for the week is today’s low at $3.88.
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2 weeks ago
Crude Oil Rebounds, but Key Resistance Levels Loom
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025
• After a 15% decline, crude oil rebounded from trendline support. A sustained move above $71.77 could strengthen bullish momentum, before it heads to higher potential resistance zones.
A one-day bullish reversal triggered in crude oil on Thursday as it broke out above Wednesday’s high. At the time of this writing, the high for the day was $70.79. Trading remains near the day’s highs, and a new high may be reached before the market closes. Today’s advance followed a potential bottom for the bearish retracement at yesterday’s low of $68.63.
Notice that support for the bearish correction was seen at a rising trendline across the lows of a consolidation pattern established in the final months of last year. Nonetheless, further bullish indications are needed and until then the $68.63 could still be broken to the downside.
Support Seen at Trendline Following a 15% Decline
Potential support around that trendline was discussed previously as a price area that might end the bearish correction. In other words, it would be a likely spot to see signs of strong support. Even if the trendline failed to hold as support, yesterday’s low completed a $12.13 or 15% decline from the recent swing high of $80.76. Certainly, the decline is closer to the end than the beginning. Therefore, a breakdown below the trendline may not go far unless bearish momentum expands.
Similar Drop Seen in Prior Corrections
Four of the most recent bearish measured moves had declines ranging from 14.8% to 18.3%. The current bearish correction is within that range as of yesterday’s performance and therefore likely closer to a bottom. That analysis combined with signs of support following the bottom, improves the chance that crude oil may have completed a bearish correction. Nonetheless, if the $68.63 retracement low fails to hold as support the next lower possible support areas are indicated at $67.82, $66.86, and the 2024 low at $65.65.
Key Resistance is $73.49
Despite the possibility of a bottom being established, it is too early to say with certainty. Rallies face several potentially key resistance areas as the dominant trend remains down. The 20-Day MA is at $71.77 currently and it represents the first key resistance level for a counter-trend rally. A daily close above the line will show strengthening but not enough to indicate a trend reversal.
Currently, the most recent lower swing high, that makes of the downtrend price structure, is at $73.49. Although it is higher than current prices, a bullish trend reversal would be indicated on a rise above that swing high.
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2 weeks ago
The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 27, 2025
President Trump has had success bringing down oil prices by sheer force of will and keeping traders off balance. Perhaps the biggest success has a lot to do with not only signaling to the world that the US oil and gas industry is open for business, but his leadership on the world stage with a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and back to maximum pressure on Iran and now Venezuela.
President Trump on Truth Social said, “We are hereby reversing the concessions that Crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement, dated November 26, 2022, and also having to do with Electoral conditions within Venezuela, which have not been met by the Maduro regime. Additionally, the regime has not been transporting the violent criminals that they sent into our Country (the Good Ole’ U.S.A.) back to Venezuela at the rapid pace that they had agreed to. I am therefore ordering that the ineffective and unmet Biden “Concession Agreement” be terminated as of the March 1st option to renew. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Yet the threat, once again, comes with the deadline and a call to action that could keep the disputed President Maduro, Chevron and President Trump happy.
Chevron has been lobbying the Trump administration to allow them to continue to do business in Venezuela. US refiners covet Venezuelan heavy oil. And while President Trump doesn’t like Maduro, he might be OK by keeping Maduro in check especially if they live up to the demands that Trump is giving them. President Trump holds all the cards, and he knows it, and he’s playing his hand brilliantly. Either Maduro complies or his economy collapses. President Trump then will continue to push Venezuela to have a free and fair election which if they do, Maduro will be looking for a job. Oil prices that are rallying on the Venezuelan threat.
Crude oil sold off yesterday partly because of President Trump’s comments on the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and the Ukraine. Trump said, “I think we’ll have a deal with Putin. Putin had no intention of settling the Ukraine war. Putin will have to make concessions on Ukraine. We’ll have good relationships with China, Russia, and the Middle East. Zelensky is coming to sign the deal. I will not be making security guarantees in Ukraine, Europe will. Won’t make security guarantees beyond very much, we will be partnering with Ukraine on rare earth.”
Oil prices also saw some downward pressure yesterday after President Trump threatened Iraq with sanctions which in turn had them settling the dispute. Iraq confirmed that, “A deal reached with Kurdistan to resume oil exports.”
Still the crude oil market has a big upside threat with Iran. President Trump is cracking down on those that do business with Iran especially entities in the United Arab Emirates, This this comes as the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has sharply increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in recent weeks, according to a confidential United Nations report, as Tehran amasses a critical raw material for atomic weapons. The increase in Iran’s holdings of uranium enriched to 60%, or nearly weapons grade, gives it enough to produce six nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing enough fissile material in a month for one nuclear weapon, according to the report, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Israel is saying that a “military option” could be required to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons and will ask U.S. President Donald Trump for help in ramping up pressure on the Islamic Republic, according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. What President Trump would do is clear what he would do with Hamas. US President Donald Trump says he’s “very disappointed” about the bodies of four hostages being released today by Hamas as part of the ceasefire agreement with Israel. “They think they’re doing us a favor by sending us bodies,” Trump says of Hamas. “This is a vicious group of people.” “At some point, somebody’s going to say, we got to do something about this,” Trump says during a cabinet meeting.
He reiterates that Israel will have to decide how it wants to proceed with the ceasefire. Trump has repeatedly suggested that he might have returned to the war if he were in Israel’s shoes. He reflects on how badly the families of slain hostages want their loved ones back. “I’ve spoken to a lot of the parents and a lot of the people involved. They want those bodies almost as much and maybe even just as much as they wanted their son or their daughter. It’s amazing, “Please, sir, please. My son is dead, but they have his body. Please. Can you get it for us?’” he recalls.
It is kind of crazy that we have one of the coldest weeks ever and yet we saw a big build in distillate inventories. Did everyone turn their heat off?
Welcome to the crazy world of oil trading and EIA oil inventories. The EIA put U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 430.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Total products demand based on product supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, up by4.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, the motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.4 million barrels a day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 13.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel products supplied was up 4.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Natural gas is trying to fight off warm weather. Big report on natural gas today.
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2 weeks ago
Natural Gas Struggles at Support Amid Bearish Correction Risks
By: Bruce Powers | February 26, 2025
• Natural gas remains range-bound, testing critical support at $3.91. A failure here could trigger a bearish move toward $3.73 and lower Fibonacci levels.
Natural gas looks likely to end Wednesday’s session with an inside day as both the high and low of the day are contained within Tuesday’s trading range. And it is set to close in the red and likely in the lower third of the day’s range. At the time of this writing the high for the day was $4.18 and the low $3.95 and trading continues near the lows of the day.
Support for the day was found around an internal trendline and above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which was reached on Monday at $3.91. These two lines are key to the uptrend that followed the $2.99 swing low that was established at the end of January.
Bullish if Remains Above $3.91 Support
If support remains above $3.91, natural gas may rise. Although a breakout above today’s high will show strength, an advance above Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would be a clearer bullish sign. Nonetheless, natural gas would be rising into a potential resistance zone that stopped the last two advances at $4.37 and $4.48, respectively. The rising internal trendline marks dynamic support for the uptrend and a bearish signal would be indicated on a decisive drop below that line.
Further Weakness Possible
Moreover, it would increase the risk that this week’s low of $3.91 fails as support and the price of natural gas goes down further. Since resistance was seen at the top of a large rising trend channel in the current advance and for the prior swing high, there is the possibility that the next lower trendline is eventually tested as support.
Either way, that possibility could lead to a notable bearish correction towards lower potential support levels. It is notable that since the 50-Day MA was reclaimed two weeks ago and there has not yet been a pullback to test the 50-Day line as support. That makes the 50-Day MA around $4.69 a potential target. But there are other price levels near the 50-Day line, which can be considered as well.
50-Day Moving Average Support Could be Tested
Although the 50% retracement at $3.73 is the next lower target if natural gas falls below $3.91, lower price levels converge between the 50% retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. The 50-Day MA is included within that price area, as well as the 20-Day MA at $3.33, plus a weekly low at $3.55.
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2 weeks ago
The Great Negotiator. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 26, 2025
Oh man, can President Trump’s leadership move markets. President Trump’s deal making and negotiating skills are changing the hearts and minds of world leaders as he leaves his mark on the oil market and works towards world peace. President Trump’s peace initiative is raising real hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The petroleum markets are already starting to price in the possibility that Russian oil and gas will start to flow freely with reduced sanctions. That is fast tracking the possibility of peace and helping reduce the cost of energy which will help the poor and middle class, and just about everybody else.
President Trump caused a drop in oil after he said that lifting the sanctions on Russia were on the table at some point. Yet what really raised a stir was a classic President Trump move and a downward move in oil.
Oil prices were already under pressure after weak consumer confidence but when President Trump said he might meet with the man he called a dictator on Wednesday, it caused a flurry. President Donald Trump did call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” on Wednesday and warned he had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country. Well son of a gun, what do you know, Volodymyr Zelenskiy seemed to get the message. Not only did he offer to step down from leading his country if he was an impediment to a peace deal, it seems he is dealing with President Trump to pay American taxpayers back for the billions they have spent on this war.
President Trump said that “We have pretty much negotiated our deal on rare earths.” Fox News said that President Donald Trump teased a possible meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Monday, amid what he called his “serious discussions” with Russian President Vladimir Putin — which could involve European peacekeeping troops — about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Now even Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would allow his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump access to rare earth metals in Ukraine’s annexed regions as part of a future deal.
The Trump administration is seeking to recoup the cost of aid sent to the war-torn country by gaining access to rare earth minerals like titanium, iron and uranium. “It’ll be a deal with rare earths and various other things. And he would like to come. As I understand it, here, to sign it. And that would be great with me,” Trump said. “I think they then have to get it approved by their council or whoever might approve it, but I’m sure that will happen.” Trump said the deal is “very beneficial to their economy,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added it is “very close.” “One-yard line,” Bessent said according to Fox News.
This comes as globalist leaders are shaking their head at the incredible success that President Trump is having. Germany and the UK are increasing defense spending. Trump has called on Nato members to spend five per cent of GDP on defense — more than double the alliance’s current spending target. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has agreed at least partially, as he announced on Tuesday that the country’s defense spending would be hiked to 2.5 per cent of the GDP by 2027, up by 0.2 per cent of the current spending. Starmer’s declaration came just hours before he departs for Washington where he will meet US President Donald Trump.
Bloomberg reports that Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has opened talks with the Social Democrats to quickly approve as much as €200 billion ($210 billion) in special defense spending, according to a person familiar with those discussions.
Presidents Trump’s disgust with the way that Hamas traded hostages could lead to another round of military conflict against Hamas has proven that they are not the type of organization that can be left in a civilized world. Now reports say that Hamas says it has reached a deal with mediators on the release of the 620 Palestinian prisoners who were due to be freed by Israel last week and “an equivalent number of women and children” detained in Gaza since the war began. Israel has confirmed the agreement without giving details.
The Russian News Agency Tass is reporting that Kazakhstan oil flows into CPC are a back to normal levels.
Now Back to Petroleum. At one time BP stood for British Petroleum. Then later they tried to appease the climate crowd and changed the meaning to Beyond Petroleum. Now after investor backlash and after losing money, the new meaning for BP is back to petroleum and back to common sense. BP is going back to petroleum is an indictment of many of the wacky green energy policies as well as other globalist agendas that the people of common sense around the world are pushing back against.
The BBC reported that [Back to Petroleum] will cut its renewable energy investments and instead focus on increasing oil and gas production. The energy giant revealed the shift in strategy on Wednesday following pressure from some investors unhappy its profits and share price have been much lower than its rivals. BP said it would increase its investments in oil and gas by about 20% to $10bn (£7.9bn) a year, while decreasing previously planned renewables funding by more than $5bn (£3.9bn).The move comes as rivals Shell and Norwegian company Equinor have also scaled back plans to invest in green energy and US President Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” comments have encouraged investment in fossil fuels.
President Trump shook up the metals markets as he said he was opening a probe on copper. Not because of supply issues but for national security issues. This coincides with the Trump Administration’s desire to increase electricity capacity to meet the demands for artificial intelligence and power centers of the future. That is not going to happen without significant amounts of copper. In fact, if you look at the increasing demand for copper in the years to come, we’re heading into a structural shortage. President Trump is way ahead of the curve on this and that is why he’s looking to secure supplies to the United States so we’re not left powerless in the economy of the future.
Crude oil inventories have been building in recent weeks. That may change according to the American Petroleum Institute report. We saw that crude supplies fell by 640,000 barrels last week. The API also reported the gasoline rose by 537,000 barrels and distillate inventories fell by 1.109 million barrels. Today we’ll see the Energy Information Administration report, and the market will focus on that.
Natural gas futures bounced back as weather reports say that the warm up could be just a spring-time tease and we could get another blast of winter. In the big picture President Trump’s desire to get Japan and Korea and Europe to buy more natural gas and to open up natural gas exports from Alaska is acknowledging the fact that the demand for liquid gas is going to grow dramatically in the years to come and the United States has the ability to be a major player in this growth sector.
In its latest report Shell said that, “the global trade in LNG is set to rise significantly by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the need to decarbonize heavy industry and transport and the emerging growth in the energy-intense tech sector. Shell says that LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport that can bring down emissions. Longer term, existing gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and NG and repurposed for the import of green hydrogen. They report demand for gas continues to gather pace across Asia, with China and India significantly increasing their re-gasification and downstream infrastructure.
More than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply is set to come on to the market by 2030, helping to meet growing long-term global demand for gas. But project start-up timings remain uncertain. Europe and Japan will continue to require LNG to fill a wide gap between energy diversification ambitions and actual investment levels. Yet concern about LNG startup times will become more certain in the US with Biden out and Trump in.
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2 weeks ago
Natural Gas Rebounds from Support Zone
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025
• Holding above $3.91 support, natural gas signals renewed bullish momentum, with resistance at $4.15 and $4.48, while failure risks a deeper retracement to $3.56.
Natural gas reached a new trend high of $4.48 last week, which led to a bearish retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on Monday with the day’s low of $3.91. Subsequently, support around that low continued to hold on Tuesday with natural gas triggering a one-day bullish signal on a rally above Monday’s high at $4.09. At the time of this writing, it continues to trade near the highs of the day, which was $4.12. That put it into a gap from Monday. The gap indicates a potential short-term upside target of $4.15, the low from last Friday.
Strength Follows 38.2% Retracement
If the $3.91 low price completes the retracement, it will put natural gas in a bullish position to challenge and possibly exceed the recent trend high at $4.48. Recent signs of strength include reaching a new trend high and the 20-Day MA crossing above the 50-Day MA recently. A bullish recovery following a minimum 38.2% retracement is a sign of strength relative to a deeper 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Also note the nearby rising internal trendline as it will combine with the 38.2% retracement zone tomorrow. Therefore, a decline below Monday’s low of $3.91 will also trigger a breakdown of the rising line. If that happens then lower price levels will become targets.
Lower Support Zones
Although the 50% retracement is at $3.73, it begins a potential support zone that goes down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. Within that potential support zone is the 50-Day MA at $3.63 and the 20-Day line at $3.60. Also, the peak from 2023 is at $3.64. That peak had significance as a bull breakout above it on December 20 provided another bullish reversal signal for the long-term downtrend.
Contained within Rising Trend Channel
Notice that resistance was seen around the top rising parallel trend channel line in December and January. That channel line along with the short internal uptrend line come together around a 50% retracement level at $4.56. If natural gas can continue to strengthen it could hit a new trend high yet stay below resistance marked by the top trendline. Nonetheless, before exceeding the 50% retracement will have either broken below the uptrend line or above the top channel line.
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2 weeks ago
Crude Oil Bearish Correction Deepens as Sellers Maintain Control
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025
• Oil prices fell further, nearing critical support around $67. A decisive break could extend losses, while historical corrections suggest a potential bottom forming soon.
The bearish correction in crude oil hit new lows on Tuesday as sellers remained in control. At the time of this writing, the low for the day was $68.96 and it is on track to end the day in a weak position, in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Tuesday’s decline dropped through the 78.6% retracement level at $70.03 with little hesitation, putting crude in a position to test support at an interim swing low of $68.82. It was almost hit today. Shortly thereafter there is a short uptrend line across the bottom of a relatively recent consolidation zone.
Down by 14.6%
At today’s low, the price of crude oil had decreased by $11.80 or 14.6% from the recent swing high at $80.76. On a relative basis, that put it at the low end of bearish corrections that have occurred since the April 2024 peak. There were four corrections identified since then that ranged from a decline of 14.7% to 18.3%. These measured moves indicate that the current correction may be close to completing and that crude oil may have a little more to fall before the correction is complete.
Monthly Bearish Reversal Points to Lower Prices
Crude oil triggered a monthly bearish reversal earlier this month (not shown) and it continues to trade near the lows of the month. This shows aggressive selling with lower monthly support in a range from around $67.11 to $66.65. Given the decisiveness of the bearish retracement, these lower price levels may yet be tested before a notable bounce. There are three more trading days before the end of February, which means that crude is at risk of ending the month in a bearish position, near the lows of the month.
Nearing Key Price Levels
Although the lower trendline provides a potential support line, the next lower support zone is from $67.11 to $66.86. That range is determined by two previous interim swing lows that were established late last year. They represent a more significant support area since a drop below that price range more clearly indicates a possible continuation of the larger bear trend.
Since the $131.31 swing high in March 2022 crude oil has been in a downtrend with a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. However, a new lower swing low for the downtrend was attempted in September with a decline to $65.65. But that decline failed to fall below the earlier swing low at $63.67 from May 2023. The September support zone could be challenged if the $66.86 price area fails to hold as support.
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2 weeks ago
Power To the People. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 25, 2025
Energy Czar, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s call to every U.S. power plant to produce 10-15% more electricity to meet the growing energy needs to expand artificial intelligence is right on and is welcomed by the US oil, gas and utility industry that has been hamstrung by a lack of clarity and commitment by the previous Administration and is getting a ‘right on’ by those in the industry. The AI revolution is going to power the economy of the future, and the US should not loose out to our competitors because of policies that were strong on virtue signaling but short of the relatives and real needs of the American people.
According to current forecasts, the electric power demand for AI is expected to significantly increase in the coming years, with predictions of a substantial rise in data center power consumption driven largely by the growing adoption of generative AI, potentially doubling electricity demand by 2026 compared to current levels. This could represent a major challenge for power grids due to the sheer scale of energy required to run complex AI models. Reports of China’s Deep Seek that some say could lower those demand expectations somewhat but why take chances. Some believe that China may have stolen some chip technology to get to that breakthrough.
Today, Bloomberg reports that, “Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China, according to people familiar with the matter. The aim, which was also a priority for Biden, is to see key allies match China curbs the US has placed on American chip-gear companies, including Lam Research Corp., KLA Corp. and Applied Materials Inc.
This comes that day after Apple CEO Declares that in America he is ‘Bullish on the future’. Fox Business reported that Apple is committing $500 billion to the U.S. economy in a historic initiative, the company announced on Monday, marking “an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation.” Fox Business reports that, “Apple’s 11-figure commitment will roll out over the next five years. It will involve building an advanced AI server manufacturing factory near Houston, as well as doubling the company’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund from $5 billion to $10 billion.
The tech giant also plans to establish an Apple Manufacturing Academy in Detroit, as well as hiring 20,000 new employees with focuses on research and development, silicon engineering, artificial intelligence and machine learning. Bloomberg reported that, “Apple Inc., as it seeks relief from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods imported from China, said that it will hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers in the US. “
The disclosure comes days after Trump and Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook met in the oval office. “He’s investing hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump said after the meeting last week. He implied that the iPhone maker is investing locally because it does not want to pay tariffs. Trump has threatened an additional 10% tax on items imported from China, where Apple builds the vast majority of iPhones and other products. But he has traded investment in the US for relief in the past.
In the meantime, oil prices are still stuck in the same old trading range. The market seems to be complacent on the supply side because of recent increases in inventory but at the same time must be wary as the Trump administration signals much tighter sanctions on those doing business with Iranian oil.
Amena Bakr reported that UBS is more bullish that some on the street, They say that “despite many expecting the oil market to flip into a surplus, the structure of the crude futures curve is still downward sloped. This suggests the oil market remains tight, with OPEC+ aiming to keep the market in balance”.
Reuters reports that the Trump administration imposed a new round of sanctions on oil brokers, ships and people it said were linked to illicit shipments of Iranian crude, framing the move as a return to a “maximum pressure” strategy to squeeze the country’s economy. Twenty-two people and 13 vessels were targeted in the latest sanctions, the State and Treasury Departments said in statements Monday. The agencies said they were targeting a network linked to the shipment of tens of millions of barrels of crude oil, and that the sanctioned entities are located in Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, India and China. “Iran continues to rely on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers to facilitate its oil sales and fund its destabilizing activities,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.” Breaking News IRAN FOREIGN MINISTER ARAQCHI SAYS TEHRAN WILL NOT NEGOTIATE UNDER PRESSURE AND THREATS
SAYS NO DIRECT TALKS WITH U.S. AS LONG AS ITS ‘MAXIMUM PRESSURE’ CONTINUES
So for oil and products we stay locked in a pretty tight trading range. Crack spreads are improving suggesting that the demand for products is very good. Weakness in the stock market didn’t help the prospect for oil. In the short term we’re playing range trade with both options and futures. Call Phil Flynn to get my Daily Trade Levels for entry and exit and stop points.
The big warm up cooled off the red-hot natural gas futures. Amazingly though the market is still concerned by the fact that supplies are well below the five-year average and at the lowest level for the last two years.
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2 weeks ago
Natural Gas Pulls Back After Rally, Faces Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | February 24, 2025
• Natural gas retreated from recent highs, testing Fibonacci support at $3.91. A deeper correction could emerge if key levels like $3.55 are breached.
Resistance was seen in natural gas around the recent $4.48 trend high reached last week. However, on Monday, natural gas could no longer retain strength and challenge the resistance zone. Instead, it triggered a bearish decline falling below last Fridays inside day pattern before finding support at the day’s low of $3.91 and bouncing.
Support was seen at the confluence of two Fibonacci retracement levels. Both a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full swing during the recent advance, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an interim upswing that is contained within the full uptrend pattern. In other words, it would mark the potential minimum anticipated bearish correction.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Completed
Although Monday’s low completes what could be a minimum pullback for the developing uptrend, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deeper pullback or consolidation before the bull trend is ready to resume. Notice the recent accelerated advance following a test of support at the 50-Day MA on February 18.
This is bullish behavior, but it also indicates that the price of natural gas may have gone too far too fast and may need a rest. Resistance from the advance was seen around a top trendline of a rising parallel trend channel. The line was recently recognized by the market several times in January when it represented resistance. Also, notice that an earlier rising trendline (dotted) converges with the channel line around recent highs.
Lower Price Support Levels
Despite support being seen today at $3.91, a decisive decline below today’s low will trigger a likely continuation of the bearish retracement. The next lower potential support zone is then around $3.75 to $3.73, consisting of a 78.6% retracement and a 50% retracement level, respectively. Further down is the 50-Day MA at $3.66 and the 20-Day MA at $3.58.
Each represents a potential support level, and those price levels should be considered within a price zone that includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.56. It is also important to realize that there is a weekly low from last week at $3.55. Therefore, a drop below that price level will violate the developing weekly bullish pattern of higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows.
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2 weeks ago
The Energy Report. Trump’s Energy Doctrine
By: Phil Flynn | February 24, 2025
Wake me up when the emergency is over. The Trump energy doctrine is in full force impacting not only oil prices but reducing political risk premium at the same time. President Trump is getting ready to power the future of the US economy by calling in for every power plant in the US to raise their capacity by 10-15% for electricity to meet the growing energy needs to expand artificial intelligence across the United States. Trump’s Energy doctrine is moving at lightening speed as even his critics are starting to admit that his policies could have a historic positive impact for US manufacturing and gross domestic product with the possibility of reducing inflation by reducing government waste, fraud and corruption.
Decisive action with efforts to end the Russian Ukraine war as well as sending a signal to Iraq to settle their dispute with Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region as they get ready to ramp up maximum pressure on Iran. Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine should happen a lot quicker than people thought. President Trump stated over the weekend that the US is close to a deal with Ukraine, seeking rare earth minerals or oil to recoup aid money. There was outrage when president Donald Trump called Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky a dictator but now this week it’s possible that he is willing to step down.
Reuters reported that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that he was willing to step down if it meant peace for his country. Reuters wrote that U.S. President Donald Trump has initiated talks with Russia without inviting Ukraine or the European Union to the table. A senior Russian diplomat said Russian and U.S. teams plan to meet for further discussions this week. Europe seems to be stunned the efficiency that Donald Trump is having. In fact according to Reuters, European Union leaders will meet for an extraordinary summit on March 6 to discuss additional support for Ukraine and European security guarantees.
Perhaps taking a cue from conservatives, the German elections in Europe is starting to diversify its energy imports to reduce its dependence on Russia. That should be a positive for the United States of America. The US will be one of the major exporters of oil products and LNG. Reuters reported that NATO is planning to build a pipeline system from Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic to ensure a rapid supply of jet fuel for fighter aircraft in the event of a war with Russia, weekly German magazine Der Spiegel reported. The existing Cold War-era pipeline system of the military alliance currently ends in western Germany.
Der Spiegel cited an internal memo from the Bundeswehr – Germany’s armed forces – as stating that there are, “significant problems in the sustainable fuel supply for forces that would need to be deployed to the eastern border in case of emergency”. Reuters also reported that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is piling pressure on Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to start or face sanctions alongside Iran, eight sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. An advisor to the Iraqi prime minister denied in a statement there had been a threat of sanctions or pressure on the government during its communications with the U.S. administration. A speedy resumption of exports from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region would help to offset a potential fall in Iranian oil exports, which Washington has pledged to cut to zero as part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
Reuters reported that NATO is planning to build a pipeline system from Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic to ensure a rapid supply of jet fuel for fighter aircraft in the event of a war with Russia, weekly German magazine Der Spiegel reported. The existing Cold War-era pipeline system of the military alliance currently ends in western Germany. Der Spiegel cited an internal memo from the Bundeswehr – Germany’s armed forces – as stating that there are “significant problems in the sustainable fuel supply for forces that would need to be deployed to the eastern border in case of emergency”.
Prices dipped last week on rumors of a new outbreak of COVID in a potential new strain. Those reports have not been confirmed, and the market is starting to come back. Oil prices dipped below 70 on the opening yesterday and they’re trying to build the base off of the lower end of the trading range. We anticipate range trading. Please ensure you obtain the trade level to maximize the potential benefits from this situation.
Natural gas prices are dipping on a warmup in the United States, but the question is, will it stay warm long enough to reverse the trajectory of natural gas which had a major breakup on the technical side of the market. Celsius Energy reported that natural gas inventories fell below 1800 billion cubic feet last week, a first since May 19, 2022. Storage is 255 billion cubic feet below the five-year average and 590 billion cubic feet lower than a year ago.
EBW Analytics reported that the March contract spiked to as high as $4.476/MMBtu last week—a full $1.00/MMBtu above the 20-day moving average—as an Arctic blast sent Henry Hub spot prices to $7.79/MMBtu amid soaring demand, 6 Bcf/d of production freeze-offs, and record LNG exports. While the coldest January-February period in a decade has reset the 2025 natural gas market outlook higher, a bearish weekend weather shift may prompt near-term softening this week as weather warms, production rebounds, and the March contract approaches expiration.
Fox Weather reported that, “We’re quickly approaching the start of meteorological spring, and right on cue, forecasters are tracking a major pattern change that will usher in warmer temperatures for most of the U.S. during the week ahead. And let’s face it – we deserve a break from the bitter cold. The nation has been blasted by rounds of frigid arctic air, which has plummeted temperatures to near-freezing as far south as Florida and the Gulf Coast. Winter storms have also brought snow to places that don’t usually see the flakes fly.
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2 weeks ago
Oil prices extend losses after weak US data; Russia-Ukraine peace talks weigh
By: Investing.com | February 23, 2025
Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Monday, extending last week's slight decline, as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data raised concerns about softer oil demand, while investors weighed the potential implications of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
Brent Oil Futures fell 0.3% to $74.24 per barrel as of 20:43 ET (01:43 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 0.4% to trade at $69.97 per barrel.
Both contracts inched lower last week, with sharp losses on Friday. Oil had gained earlier in the prior week due to a series of supply disruptions, but the rally faded on Friday as investors weighed the implications of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
"Trade and tariff concerns, along with a push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, will weigh somewhat on the market," ING analysts said in a note.
Weak US data sparks demand concerns
Recent U.S. economic indicators have raised concerns about a potential slowdown, negatively impacting oil prices.
Friday's data showed that Services PMI fell to 50.4 in February 2025, down from 52.7 in January, indicating minimal growth in the private sector.
Additionally, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 64.7 in February, a 15-month low, as households grew increasingly worried about proposed tariffs and rising inflation.
These developments suggest a deceleration in economic activity, leading to expectations of reduced energy demand and contributing to the recent decline in oil prices.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is actively trying to mediate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, aiming to resolve the ongoing conflict that has significantly impacted global energy markets.
Recent discussions have involved high-level meetings, including U.S. President Donald Trump's engagement with international leaders to facilitate dialogue.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concerns about the negotiations, emphasizing the necessity of Ukraine's direct involvement in any peace agreement.
A successful peace agreement could lead to the lifting or easing of sanctions imposed on Russian energy exports, potentially increasing the global oil supply.
Additionally, the re-entry of Russian gas into the European market may lead to lower natural gas prices and alter the competitive landscape for LNG suppliers.
Supply disruptions cap losses
Oil had risen last week as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major route for Kazakh oil exports, had reported reduced flows by 30-40% after a Ukrainian drone hit Russia’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station.
Adding to the supply concerns, recent media reports indicated that OPEC producer group and its allies, OPEC+, are considering postponing its planned oil production increases, intensifying concerns about potential supply disruptions in the global market.
Originally, the group had scheduled to begin monthly output hikes in April 2025; however, deliberations are underway to delay these increments.
"Any delay would lead to a change in the oil balance, leaving the market relatively tighter than we expected. Any delay would also likely not go down well with President Trump, who’s calling on OPEC+ to increase supply," ING analysts said.
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2 weeks ago
WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2025.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 175.6k, down 25.6k.
Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude ticked $73.68 intraday Tuesday before reversing lower, ending the week with a shooting star. This week, a similar candle formed on the weekly with a high of $73.14 on Thursday. As a matter of fact, until Thursday’s close, the crude was up 2.5 percent for the week. Friday’s 2.9-percent tumble turned this into a week of down 0.4 percent to $70.40/barrel.
This was the sixth consecutive weekly decline. Six weeks ago, WTI reversed lower after tagging $79.39 in a shooting star week. Sellers showed up before reaching the upper bound of a well-established range. For months, it has been rangebound between $71-$72 and $81-$82 before dropping out of the lower bound last September. The range was recaptured as soon as 2025 began.
If $70 is breached – likely – oil bulls can defend a rising trendline from last September’s low and regroup around $68.50.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to February 14 increased 3,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.497 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6. Crude imports dropped 489,000 b/d to 5.8 mb/d. As did gasoline and distillate inventory which declined 151,000 barrels and 2.1 million barrels respectively to 247.9 million barrels and 116.6 million barrels. Crude stocks, however, increased 4.6 million barrels to 432.5 million barrels. Refinery utilization fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 84.9 percent.
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2 weeks ago
NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2025
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 7040 is immediately trading down about 1.84% for the year from last year's settlement of 7172. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. At present, this market has been rising for 4 months going into February suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 7012 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 7179.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7096 and support forming below at 7022. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 13th at 7939, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 18th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 3070 made 1239 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of January 13th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7288 made back during the week of November 4th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 7th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 6653 made the week of November 18th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2024. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in September 2024.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7939 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 8767 back during April 2024. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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2 weeks ago
Natural Gas Struggles at Resistance, Bearish Reversal in Sight
By: Bruce Powers | February 21, 2025
• Natural gas consolidates below resistance, forming a bearish shooting star. A break below $4.15 could confirm a pullback, with possible support near $3.98 and $3.75.
Natural gas continued to consolidate near trend highs on Friday. It is on track to end the day with an inside day. The high of the day at $4.44 retested resistance near the current trend high of $4.48 that was reached yesterday. However, the day will likely end with natural gas in a bearish position, lower for the day and with a closing price in the lower half of the day’s trading range.
Day Likely Ends Bearish
Although it is not surprising to see another attempt to go to new highs a subsequent intraday selloff puts natural gas at risk of ending the day with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Even though it is a bearish pattern inside an inside day pattern, it shows sellers dominating. The shooting star is typically a stronger bearish indication if it occurs at the top of an uptrend. That would have been yesterday. Nonetheless, in this case the bearish one-day candle follows a bearish candle from Thursday.
Resistance Continues to Hold
Resistance has been seen around a logical price resistance zone marked by a top parallel rising trend channel line. A bullish breakout above the line and therefore the channel was last attempted on January 13, the prior trend high. That new high day also ended the day in a decisive bearish position. Even though there could be more upside before the current advance is complete, the combination of the channel line pattern and the bearish response indicate that the chance of a bearish pullback of some degree is more likely now.
Bearish Below $4.15
A bearish signal will be indicated on a drop below today’s low of $4.15. Yesterday’s low of $4.03 along with the 50% retracement of an internal uptrend at $4.02 is the next potential support area. However, there is confluence of two Fibonacci retracement levels at $3.98, which may make it a more likely target for a minimum pullback. Further down is a possible support zone from $3.75 to $3.73. The behavior around the internal thin uptrend line showing near-term dynamic support should also provide clues as to changes in support and demand. If a deeper pullback does occur, a minimum test of support around that trendline seems likely.
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2 weeks ago
Cold As Ice. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 21, 2025
The global oil market seems to be frozen in time. The surge in demand due to cold weather in the United States is a contributing factor as the Energy Information Administration released a report that had icicles hanging from it. The oil market is attempting to balance the bearish factors associated with President Trump’s “drill baby drill” policy and the streamlining and removal of ridiculous regulations against the potential tightening of sanctions on Iran and Russia. Additionally, there is the possibility that OPEC+ will maintain its current production levels, refraining from adding any barrels to an already constrained oil market.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly status report showed the impact of the cold weather on the oil producing areas. The EIA showed that oil refinery inputs averaged just 15.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 15,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
Refineries are operating at 84.9% of their capacity. While some refineries may be undergoing maintenance, the reduction in operations was also affected by the cold weather. The drop in refinery runs contributed to a 4.6-million-barrel increase in crude oil supplies, but distillate inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels which leaves supply 12% below the Five-Year average.
Cold weather has increased U.S. oil demand to 20.4 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, driven partly by higher distillate fuel demand. Distillate supplies are up 14.2% from a year ago. These factors are keeping oil in a range. Basically right now any trade that you can buy near 70 should be very good value. Currently $73 seems to be the major resistance and a close over $73 should send us up to 75 quite quickly.
On top of that we think the geopolitical risk is going to start to creep back up again. Reports that Iran is able to move more oil to China in recent days could cause a blowback by the Trump administration.
The despicable Hamas terrorist are adding to risk. Reports read, “Israeli military said Friday it had positively identified the remains of two young hostages but another body released by Hamas under a ceasefire deal was not the boys’ mother as the militant group had promised. The revelation was a shocking twist in the saga surrounding the Bibas family, who have become global symbols of the plight of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and threw the future of the fragile ceasefire into question. “This is a violation of utmost severity by the Hamas terrorist organization,” the army said in a statement. During the monthlong ceasefire, Hamas has been releasing living hostages in exchange hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Thursday’s release marked the first time the group has returned the remains of dead hostages.
Winter is not giving up, yet neither is the natural gas rally. Fox Weather reports that, “Friday brings the final day of the record-breaking arctic outbreak that has frozen the central U.S., but the danger isn’t over. While some areas are experiencing a slight reprieve from the extreme lows seen earlier in the week, subzero wind chills persist, stretching from the northern border down to the Gulf Coast. More than 80 locations are bracing for more likely record-low temperatures and sub-zero wind chills, with some facing their coldest late-season readings ever.
The EIA said that working gas in storage was 2,101 Bcf as of Friday, February 14, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 196 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 386 Bcf less than last year at this time and 118 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,219 Bcf. At 2,101 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. After the warm spell, some predict it will get cold again. This expectation is maintaining the demand for natural gas. It appears that the future of natural gas usage largely depends on weather conditions.
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3 weeks ago
Crude Oil Struggles at 50-Day MA, Downtrend Still Intact
By: Bruce Powers | February 20, 2025
• Resistance at the 50-Day MA halted crude oil’s rebound, keeping the downtrend intact unless prices break above $72.64, with downside risks toward $70.03.
Crude oil advanced to a new bounce high of $73.49 on Thursday, counter to the dominant near term decline. It was the second day in a row that resistance around the 50-Day MA (orange) was successfully tested as resistance was seen. The 50-Day line is at $73.30, and the 20-Day MA is at $72.83, currently.
However, since they are close to each together, the 50-Day line takes priority as it is calculated on a higher time frame. Crude is on track to close in a relatively weak position today within the day’s trading range, as it did yesterday as well. Those are signs of short-term weakness.
Potential for Lower Swing High
Today’s high has the potential to retain the downtrend price structure with a lower swing high. A drop below today’s low of $72.09 will establish a new lower swing high and retain the integrity of the downtrend that began from the $80.76 swing high. The downtrend remains in place unless there is a sustained rally above the February 11 interim swing high at $72.64.
However, if today’s high establishes a new lower swing high and it is subsequently broken to the upside, that could provide an early signal for a bullish change in trend. Nonetheless, a rally above today’s high prior to establishing a new lower swing high puts crude oil in a position to challenge the $72.64 swing high. Subsequently, if a $72.64 bull breakout triggers, the 200-Day MA at $74.49 becomes the next higher price target.
Next Lower Target at $70.52 if Decline Continues
Alternatively, the bearish correction continues to lower price targets, starting with the 78.6% retracement at $70.03. There is also a range of prior consolidation that represents potential support below the current retracement low at $70.52. Reaching the 78.6% retracement level could signal the completion of the decline. Notice that crude oil has been trading near trend lows recently and it has been showing signs of consolidation. In other words, bearish momentum has diminished.
Lower Level at $68.82
That could be the end of it but if not the $68.82 interim swing low marks a lower price target. A drop below Wednesday’s low of $72.07 shows weakness that could lead to lower prices if the breakdown is sustained. It may be easier to recognize on the weekly chart (not shown).
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3 weeks ago
Natural Gas Rally Stalls at New Trend High, Retracement Levels Eyed
By: Bruce Powers | February 20, 2025
• Resistance near $4.48 halted natural gas’s rally, prompting a retracement. Key support lies at $3.91, while a breakout above resistance could target higher levels.
Natural gas reached a new trend high of $4.48 on Thursday thereby testing potential resistance around a top trend channel line. The prior trend high was $4.37. Subsequently, resistance was seen from that high leading to an intraday pullback. Notice that there is also an earlier internal rising trendline that converges around the top trend channel line and is another indication that a key resistance level may have been met.
At the time of this writing natural gas is on track to end the day down and it may close in the lower half of the day’s trading range if not the lower third. The new trend high completed a $1.49 or 49.7% advance from the $2.99 swing low from late January.
50% Retracement of Small Upswing
Today’s bearish pullback following the $4.48 high has almost completed a 50% retracement of an internal upswing. The 50% level is at $4.02 and the low for the day so far was $4.03. Nonetheless, that is a price level measuring a shorter internal upswing while the first retracement level from the full advance is at $3.91. That price level is the convergence of both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full advance and the 61.8% retracement of the internal upswing. Therefore, baring a breakout to new highs before a pullback, that price level is the first lower target.
Lower Price Levels
Subsequently, the next lower confluence potential support zone is identified from $3.75 to $3.73. It consists of a 78.6% retracement level and a 50% retracement level, respectively. Nonetheless, both the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MAs were recently reclaimed during the recent rise. There has not yet been a test of support around those moving averages other than on one-day.
Therefore, if a deeper pullback occurs, they would be obvious potential targets. Keep in mind that the price levels represented are dynamic. Currently, the 50-Day line is at $3.62 and the 20-Day is at $2.57. Moreover, there is also a minor swing low (begins the internal upswing Fibonacci measurement) and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.56 and $3.55, respectively.
Bull Continuation Above $4.48
Since the top channel line was successfully tested as resistance today, it may also mark a point of potential resistance in the future. Nonetheless, a decisive breakout above today’s high has natural gas heading towards, $4.56, $4.70/$4.72, followed by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for the full downtrend that began from the 2022 high at $10.03.
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3 weeks ago
Crude Inventories Rise by 4.6 Million Barrels; WTI Oil Tests Session Highs
By: Vladimir Zernov | February 20, 2025
Key Points:
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged at 395.3 million barrels.
• Domestic oil production was mostly unchanged at 13.497 million bpd.
• Oil markets moved higher as traders reacted to the EIA report.
On February 20, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +3 million barrels.
More information in our economic calendar
Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels, compared to analyst forecast of +0.7 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week.
U.S. crude oil imports declined by 488,000 bpd, averaging 5.8 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million bpd.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged at 395.3 million as U.S. did not buy oil for strategic reserves.
Domestic oil production increased from 13,494 million bpd to 13,497 million bpd. From a big picture point of view, domestic oil production remains at high levels.
WTI oil gains ground as traders react to the EIA report. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the $72.85 level. Falling gasoline inventories may provide additional support to oil markets.
Brent oil is moving towards the $77.00 level as traders focus on the EIA data. Traders will also focus on the recent disruption of oil supply from Kazakhstan, which continues to serve as a positive catalyst for Brent oil.
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3 weeks ago
100%. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 20, 2025
Talk about shaking up the global energy world order! America is back 100%! President Trump just increased energy demand expectations after announcing that he would consider a tax cut that would include 100% expensing for new US factories. That tax cut, coupled with the fact that the United States has some of the lowest natural gas prices in the industrialized world, will create a situation where we should see a surge of investment into the United States with new high paying jobs.
The United States already has a huge home field advantage when it comes to natural gas prices with the lowest price hydro-carbon in the industrialized world and now with that 100% expensing will give more incentive for investors around the world to build their factories in America. That is only going to make good business sense along with the removal of ridiculous regulations and an anti-natural gas agenda by the previous administration. Biden era policies hindered investment in factories, and it’s caused many companies to invest their money elsewhere.
The revelations from the DOGE audits suggest that the lack of development may be attributed to government corruption, potentially involving politicians seeking personal gain. Gee, I wonder what the Big Guy has been up to lately.
Last week the Trump Administration approved a Texas port capable of shipping 1.0 million barrels of oil a day proposed by Sentinel Midstream LLC. Bloomberg News reported that, “The project, first proposed in 2019 and known as the Texas GulfLink Deepwater Port, had been awaiting a final authorization from the Transportation Department’s Maritime Administration. “That was held up for five years, and it was stonewalled,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Friday. “Bureaucrats got in the way, and now we are moving forward with that.” Duffy cast the port as important to “making sure we can move energy in and out of the country.”
Oil prices are holding their ground after a bearish API report but they’re still marked into a trading range. As Fox Weather reported, frigid cold temperatures are not only supporting natural gas but oil prices as well. Fox Weather reported that the arctic outbreak that has enveloped the central U.S. is hitting its peak Thursday as frigid temperatures continue to spread south and east across the nation. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are posted for a vast swath of the country, stretching from Montana to Texas and eastward beyond the Mississippi River to northern Florida and parts of the Southeast. The sheer scale of the cold is staggering, with 230 million Americans experiencing temperatures below freezing. That is leading to production shutdowns because of the cold weather and is reducing flow.
At the same time Bloomberg is reporting that we’re seeing increased exports from both Russia and Iran as they seek ways to avoid sanctions. Iran’s grand poohbah Ali Khamenei is begging Qatar to ignore the United States and free up some of its frozen cash. Iran is bleeding cash with the Trump Administration’s tougher enforcement and is making it more difficult for Iran’s economy. It could collapse and it’s going to be interesting to see what happens. Will Trump keep the pressure on and so these exports from Iran to China could cause trouble for anyone who deals with it.
Fox News is reporting that, “Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi is calling for global action to defeat the Islamic Republic’s regime. Pahlavi says the regime is “weaker than it has ever been” and the people of Iran are ready to take back their “stolen country.” Pahlavi spoke at the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy on Tuesday, highlighting the plight of the Iranian people, calling the country a “nation in chains,” and the oppressive nature of the Islamic Republic regime headed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Trump Administration freezes funds to Palestinian security forces according to the Washington Post. Raphael Bostic President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta spoke some truth when it came the false assumptions that tariffs cause inflation. Bostic said that, “While some policy proposals could add to inflation, others could boost productivity and lower price pressures.”
Bloomberg is reporting that, “European natural gas futures touched the lowest level in a month as US fuel exports extend a record-breaking run, helping to ease some supply worries. Benchmark contracts dropped as much as 4.7% to the price since mid-January, before hovering near €48 a megawatt- hour. Increased output of liquefied natural gas from the US — Europe’s top supplier of the super-chilled fuel — is the latest in a string of bearish factors that have helped to turn around this year’s rally.
Oil prices remain between 70 to 73, with a potential breakout to 75. Although the report’s expectations were disappointing, strong demand in the upcoming weeks suggests solid support. Consider buying breaks and possibly selling like option strategies. The API reported that API: Crude Oil +3.339 Cush +1.684 Gasoline +2.832 Dist -2.689.
Natural gas shorts got squeezed on cold temperatures. NYMEX natural gas futures a two-year 4.476 intraday.
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