Pound Slides On Middle East Tensions, Declining Fed Rate Cut Bets
07 October 2024 - 5:25PM
RTTF2
The British pound weakened against other major currencies in the
European session on Monday, amid growing worries about Israel's
potential retaliation against Iran for a missile attack and robust
U.S. jobs data signaled economic resilience but prompted trades to
pare bets on aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Today marks a year after the Palestinian militant group Hamas
attacked Israel, which led to its retaliation in Gaza.
Hezbollah rockets hit Israel's third largest city Haifa early
today. Israeli military said that air raid sirens were activated in
central Israel after rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip.
After Friday's blowout payrolls report, traders now price in
only a quarter-point cut in interest rates at the Federal Reserve's
next policy announcement on Nov. 7, with a small chance that the
policy rate stays unchanged.
European stocks were subdued due to pressure from higher bond
yields following robust U.S. jobs data released last week.
In addition to the cautious outlook in the market, the pound
sterling has been negatively impacted by growing anticipation that
the Bank of England (BoE) would lower interest rates once more in
November.
In economic news, data from the Lloyds Bank subsidiary Halifax
showed that U.K. house prices rose at the fastest annual rate in
almost two years in September due to base effects. The house price
index rose 4.7 percent year-on-year in September, faster than the
4.3 percent rise in August. Further, this was the steepest increase
since November 2022.
On a month-on-month basis, house prices rose at a stable rate of
0.3 percent in September. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent
increase. Prices rose for the third successive month.
The British sterling held steady against its major rivals in the
Asian session today.
In the European trading today, the pound fell to nearly a 4-week
low of 1.3066 against the U.S. dollar, from an early high of
1.3135. The pound may test support near the 1.29 region.
Against the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc, the pound edged
down to 0.8389, 193.73 and 1.1205 from early highs of 0.8356,
195.26 and 1.1271, respectively. If the pound extends its
downtrend, it is likely to find support around 0.85 against the
euro, 186.00 against the yen and 1.10 against the franc.
Looking ahead, U.S. consumer credit change for August is due to
be released at 3:00 pm ET in the New York session.
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