UK Economy Manages To Expand In Q4
31 March 2023 - 3:34PM
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The UK economy grew modestly at the end of 2022 weathering the
headwinds from high inflation squeezing household income and weak
global conditions and thus avoid a technical recession, official
data showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent sequentially in the
fourth quarter, after a first estimate of nil growth was revised,
the Office for National Statistics reported. This followed a 0.1
percent decline in the third quarter.
The marginal growth at the end of the year helped the economy to
avoid a technical recession that is defined as two consecutive
quarters of fall in output.
On the production-side, the service sector expanded 0.1 percent
following a first estimate of no growth. The sequential expansion
in construction output was revised sharply to 1.3 percent from 0.3
percent. Meanwhile, the production sector output was flat compared
to the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent fall.
The expenditure-side showed that household expenditure grew 0.2
percent underpinned by spending on net tourism, transport and
housing. Government spending gained 0.5 percent with the largest
rise in public administration and defence, followed by health.
Gross fixed capital formation increased 0.3 percent but business
investment decreased 0.2 percent.
Excluding the alignment and balancing adjustments, estimates
showed that inventories fell GBP 2.2 billion in the fourth
quarter.
The economy was 0.6 percent larger than a year earlier as higher
inflation and a tightening in financial conditions weighed on the
economy in recent quarters, the ONS said.
In the Spring budget statement announced earlier this month,
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the economy will not enter a recession
this year though a contraction of just 0.2 percent is on the
cards.
The level of real GDP was still 0.6 percent below where it was
during the fourth quarter of 2019, which was before the coronavirus
pandemic broke-out. The decline was revised from the previous
estimate of 0.8 percent.
GDP was estimated to have increased 4.1 percent in 2022, revised
up from the previous estimate of 4.0 percent.
Further, data showed that the household saving ratio increased
to 9.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 8.9 percent in the
previous quarter.
Reflecting the improvement in investment income, the current
account deficit narrowed to 0.4 percent of GDP in the fourth
quarter, data showed.
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