ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
Other than the risk factors listed below, there have been no material changes from the risk factors previously described under Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 30, 2022 and Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended May 1, 2022.
Before you buy our common stock, you should know that making such an investment involves some risks including, but not limited to, the risks described in Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 30, 2022, in Item 1A of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended May 1, 2022, and below. Additionally, any one of those risks could harm our business, financial condition and results of operations, which could cause our stock price to decline. Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently deem immaterial may also impair our business operations.
If we fail to estimate customer demand properly, mismatches between supply and demand can occur, harming our financial results.
Because we do not manufacture the semiconductors used for our products, we are dependent on third parties to manufacture and assemble our products. Our manufacturing lead times are very long, which requires us to make estimates of customers’ future demand. At the same time, we do not have a guaranteed supply of wafers, components and capacity, and our supply deliveries and production may be non-linear within a quarter or year, which has previously caused changes to expected revenue and cash flows, and which may reoccur in the future. If our estimates of customer demand are ultimately inaccurate, as we have experienced from time to time, these conditions could lead to a significant mismatch between supply and demand. This mismatch has resulted in product shortages and excess inventory, has varied across our market platforms, and significantly harmed our financial results.
We build finished products and maintain inventory in advance of anticipated demand. In periods of shortages impacting the semiconductor industry and/or limited supply or capacity in our supply chain, as we have experienced in the past, the lead time on our orders for certain supply has extended to more than twelve months, compared to a historical lead time of approximately six months. As a result, we have paid premiums and provided deposits to secure future supply and capacity, which have increased our product costs, and may need to continue to do so in the future. We may not have the ability to reduce our supply commitments at the same rate or at all if our revenue declines. Our supply, which includes inventory on hand, purchase obligations and prepaid supply agreements, has grown significantly due to current supply chain conditions and complexity of our products. Purchase obligations and prepaid supply agreements represent approximately three quarters of our total supply.
Demand for our products is based on many factors, including our product introductions and transitions, time to market, competitor product releases and announcements, competing technologies, and changes in macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation. Each of these factors has previously impacted, and can in the future impact, the timing and volume of our revenue. Our demand predictions may not be correct, as we have experienced from time to time. Product transitions are complex and frequently negatively impact our revenue as we manage shipments of legacy prior architecture products and channel partners prepare and adjust to support new products. We are entering a timeframe when we will transition architectures for both our Gaming and Data Center products, which may impair our ability to predict demand and to make planned shipments. We may experience, and have in the past experienced, reduced demand for current generation architectures when customers anticipate transitions. If we are unable to execute our architectural transitions as planned for any reason, our financial results may be negatively impacted. Our ability to sell certain products has in the past been and can in the future be impeded if components from third parties that are necessary for the finished product are not available. Additionally, we sell most of our products through channel partners, who sell to retailers, distributors, and/or end customers. As a result, the decisions made by our channel partners, retailers and distributors in response to changing market conditions and changes in end user demand for our products have impacted and could in the future continue to impact our ability to properly forecast demand, particularly as they are based on estimates provided by various downstream parties.
If we underestimate our customers' future demand for our products, our foundry partners may not have adequate lead-time or capacity to increase production and we may not be able to obtain sufficient inventory to fill orders on a timely basis. Even if we are able to increase production levels to meet customer demand, we may not be able to do so in a cost-effective or timely manner, or our original equipment manufacturers may experience supply constraints. If we fail to fulfill our customers’ orders on a timely basis, or at all, our customer relationships could be damaged, we could lose revenue and market share and our reputation could be harmed.
On the other hand, if we overestimate our customers’ future demand for our products, and if customers cancel or defer orders or choose to purchase from our competitors, we may not be able to reduce our inventory purchase commitments. In the past, we have experienced a reduction in average selling prices, including as a result of channel pricing programs that we have implemented in the past and may continue to implement, as a result of our overestimation of future demand, which has reduced our revenue and gross margins, and we may need to continue these reductions. We have had to increase prices for our Data Center products as a result of our suppliers’ increase in prices, and may need to continue to do so for other products in the future, which may negatively impact demand. We have also written-down our inventory, incurred cancellation penalties, and recorded impairments, negatively impacting our gross margins and our overall financial results. These impacts were amplified by our placement of non-cancellable and non-returnable purchasing terms, well in advance of our historical lead times and could be exacerbated if we need to make changes to the design of future products. The risk of these impacts has increased recently, as our purchase obligations and prepaids have grown and become a greater portion of our total supply while our revenue has sequentially declined.
In addition to the growing lead times described above, there are many factors that have caused and/or could in the future cause us to either underestimate or overestimate our customers’ future demand for our products, or otherwise cause a mismatch between supply and demand for our products. Those factors include such things as:
•changes in business and economic conditions resulting in decreased consumer confidence, including downturns in our target markets and/or overall economy, rising inflation, and changes in the credit market;
•sudden or sustained government lockdowns or actions to control COVID-19 case spread;
•rapidly changing technology or customer requirements;
•new product introductions resulting in less demand for existing products;
•new or unexpected end use cases;
•increase in demand for competitive products, including competitive actions;
•fluctuations in demand for our products related to cryptocurrency mining; or
•changes in governmental policies, such as increased restrictions on gaming usage or cloud service providers.
In recent periods, COVID-19-related disruptions and lockdowns in China have created and may continue to create supply and logistics constraints. The war in Ukraine has further strained global supply chains and may in the future result in a shortage of key materials that our suppliers, including our foundry partners, require to satisfy our needs. Extended lead times may continue if we experience other supply constraints caused by natural disasters or other events. In addition, geopolitical tensions involving Taiwan and China, which comprise a significant portion of our revenue and where we have suppliers, contract manufacturers, and assembly partners who are critical to our supply continuity, could have a material adverse impact on us.
Our GPUs are designed for the Gaming, Data Center, Professional Visualization and Automotive markets. The use of our GPUs for use cases other than that for which they were designed and marketed, including new and unexpected use cases, has impacted and can in the future impact demand for our products, including by leading to inconsistent spikes and drops in demand. For example, many years ago, our Gaming GPUs began to be used for digital currency mining, including blockchain-based platforms such as Ethereum. It is difficult for us to estimate with any reasonable degree of precision, the past or current impact of cryptocurrency mining, or forecast the future impact of cryptocurrency mining, on demand for our products. Volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including new compute technologies, price changes in cryptocurrencies, government cryptocurrency policies and regulations, new cryptocurrency standards, and changes in the method of verifying blockchain transactions, has impacted and can in the future impact cryptocurrency mining and demand for our products and can further impact our ability to estimate demand for our products. Changes to cryptocurrency standards and processes including, but not limited to, the pending Ethereum 2.0 merge may decrease the usage of GPUs for Ethereum mining as well as create increased aftermarket resales of our GPUs, which could
negatively impact retail prices for our GPUs, increase returns of our products in the distribution channel, and reduce demand for our new GPUs. We have introduced Lite Hash Rate, or LHR, GeForce GPUs with limited Ethereum mining capability and provided CMP products in an effort to address demand from gamers and direct miners to CMP. Beginning in the second quarter of fiscal year 2022, most desktop NVIDIA Ampere architecture GeForce GPU shipments were LHR to help direct GeForce GPUs to gamers. Attempts in the aftermarket to improve the hash rate capabilities of our LHR cards have been successful and our gaming cards may become more attractive to miners, increasing demand for our gaming GPUs and limiting our ability to supply our gaming cards to non-mining customers. We cannot predict whether our strategy of using LHR cards and CMP will achieve our desired outcome. In addition, our new products or previously sold products may be resold online or on the unauthorized “gray market,” which also makes demand forecasting difficult. Gray market products or reseller marketplaces compete with our distribution channels.
Consumer and enterprise behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as fluctuating demand for our Gaming, Data Center, and workstation products, has made it more difficult for us to estimate future demand and may have changed pre-pandemic behaviors. At the same time, restrictions that may be imposed or reinstated as the pandemic continues, such as recent lockdown measures due to COVID-19 containment efforts in China, have negatively impacted end customer sales for our products in China and this impact may continue if future lockdowns are imposed. These challenges in estimating demand are expected to be more pronounced or volatile in the future on both a global and regional basis and may continue in the future when the effects of the pandemic subside.
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2023, Gaming revenue experienced lower sell-in of our Gaming GPUs reflecting reduced channel partner sales due to macroeconomic headwinds, including the negative impact of high inflation on consumer spending and weaker consumer purchasing power in markets whose currencies weakened relative to the U.S. dollar, as our sales are in U.S. dollars. Our channel partners reduced their inventory and are transitioning to a lower value mix of inventory to better align with demand as well as an architectural transition, and we implemented pricing programs with them to address challenging market conditions that we expect to persist into the third quarter of fiscal year 2023. The sequential decline in Gaming revenue also resulted from the war in Ukraine impacting sales in Europe and lockdowns in China due to COVID-19. The extent to which reduced cryptocurrency mining contributed to the decline in Gaming demand is difficult for us to reasonably quantify. Economic conditions in China drove lower sales to China hyperscale customers, impacting our Data Center revenue, and drove lower sales of Gaming products. We and our customers are also experiencing Data Center supply chain disruptions as our customers delay purchases pending the availability of other third party components. These recent reductions in demand and our reduced expectations of future demand have required us to record charges for excess inventory on hand and on order, and cancellation and underutilization penalties. Potential future demand reductions could require additional reserves. Mismatches between our supply and demand may occur in future quarters.
We depend on third parties and their technology to manufacture, assemble, test, package or design our products, which reduces our control over product quantity and quality, manufacturing yields, development, enhancement and product delivery schedule and could harm our business.
We do not manufacture the semiconductors used for our products and do not own or operate a wafer fabrication facility. We depend on foundries to manufacture our semiconductor wafers using their fabrication equipment and techniques. We do not assemble, test or package our products, but instead contract with independent subcontractors. We also rely on third-party software development tools to assist us in the design, simulation and verification of new products or product enhancements. The design requirements necessary to meet consumer demands for greater functionality from our products may exceed the capabilities of available software development tools. While we have entered in the past and may in the future enter into long-term supply and capacity commitments, we may not be able to secure sufficient commitments for capacity to address our business needs. We face several risks which could adversely affect our ability to meet customer demand and scale our supply chain, negatively impact longer-term demand for our products and services, and adversely affect our business operations, gross margin, revenue and/or financial results, including:
•lack of guaranteed supply of wafers, components and capacity or decommitment and potential higher wafer and component prices, from incorrectly estimating demand and failing to place orders with our suppliers with sufficient quantities or in a timely manner;
•failure by our foundries or contract manufacturers to procure raw materials or to provide adequate levels of manufacturing or test capacity for our products;
•failure by our foundries to develop, obtain or successfully implement high quality process technologies, including transitions to smaller geometry process technologies such as advanced process node technologies and memory designs needed to manufacture our products;
•limited number of global suppliers, foundries, contract manufacturers, assembly and test providers, and memory manufacturers;
•loss of a supplier and additional expense and/or production delays as a result of qualifying a new foundry or subcontractor and commencing volume production or testing in the event of a loss of or a decision to add or change a supplier;
•lack of direct control over product quantity, quality and delivery schedules;
•suppliers or their suppliers failing to supply high quality products and/or making changes to their products without our qualification;
•delays in product shipments, shortages, a decrease in product quality and/or higher expenses in the event our subcontractors or foundries prioritize our competitors’ orders over ours;
•low manufacturing yields resulting from a failure in our product design or a foundry’s proprietary process technology; and
•disruptions in manufacturing, assembly and other processes due to heat wave closures and electricity conservation efforts.
We have incurred and could in the future incur significant expenses to remediate defects in our products, which can damage our reputation and cause us to lose market share.
Our hardware and software product offerings are complex and they have in the past and may in the future contain defects or security vulnerabilities, or experience failures or unsatisfactory performance due to any number of issues in design, fabrication, packaging, materials and/or use within a system. These risks may increase as our products are introduced into new devices, markets, technologies and applications or as new versions are released. These risks further increase when we rely on partners to supply and manufacture components that are used in our products, as these arrangements reduce our direct control over production. Although arrangements with component providers may contain provisions for product defect expense reimbursement, we generally remain responsible to the customer for warranty product defects that may occur from time to time. Some failures in our products or services have been in the past and may in the future be only discovered after a product or service has been shipped or used. Undiscovered vulnerabilities in our products or services could result in loss of data or intangible property, or expose our end customers to unscrupulous third parties who develop and deploy malicious software programs that could attack our products or services. Defects or failure of our products to perform to specifications could lead to substantial damage to the products or the product in which our device has been integrated by OEMs, ODMs, AIBs and Tier 1 automotive suppliers, and to the user of such end product. Any such defect may cause us to incur significant warranty, support and repair or replacement costs as part of a product recall or otherwise, write-off the value of related inventory, and divert the attention of our engineering personnel from our product development efforts to find and correct the issue. Our efforts to remedy these issues may not be timely or may not be satisfactory to our customers. An error or defect in new products or releases or related software drivers after commencement of commercial shipments could result in failure to achieve market acceptance, loss of design wins, temporary or permanent withdrawal from a product or market, and harm to our relationships with existing and prospective customers and partners and consumers’ perceptions of our brand, which would in turn negatively impact our business operations, gross margin, revenue and/or financial results. We may be required to reimburse our customers, partners or consumers, including for costs to repair or replace products in the field or in connection with indemnification obligations, or pay fines imposed by regulatory agencies.
For example, a defect was identified in a third-party component embedded in certain Data Center products. This defect has had, and other defects may in the future have, an adverse effect on our cost and supply of components and finished goods. While we have been working to fix the defect, we have needed to replace those products instead of repairing them, resulting in greater costs to us. These costs could be significant in future periods. We recorded $122 million for warranty reserves in the second quarter of fiscal year 2023 primarily in connection with this defect. While we believe we have accurately recorded for the warranty reserve, we may need to record additional amounts in the future if our estimate proves to be incorrect. If a product liability claim is brought against us, even if the alleged damage is due to the actions or inactions of a third party, such as within our supply chain, the cost of defending the claim could be significant and would divert the efforts of our technical and management personnel and harm our business. Further, our business liability insurance may be inadequate or future coverage may be unavailable on acceptable terms, which could adversely impact our financial results.
We are subject to risks and uncertainties associated with international operations, including adverse economic conditions, which may harm our business.
We conduct our business and have offices worldwide. Our semiconductor wafers are manufactured, assembled, tested and packaged by third parties located outside of the United States and we generated 70% and 74% of our revenue for the second quarter and first half of fiscal year 2023, respectively, from sales outside of the United States. The global nature of our business subjects us to a number of risks and uncertainties, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, including:
•domestic and international economic and political conditions between countries in which we and our suppliers and manufacturers do business;
•government lockdowns to control COVID-19 cases;
•differing legal standards with respect to protection of IP and employment practices;
•domestic and international business and cultural practices that differ;
•disruptions to capital markets, counter-inflation policies, and/or currency fluctuations; and
•natural disasters, acts of war or other military actions, terrorism, public health issues, and other catastrophic events.
Adverse changes in global, regional or local economic conditions, including recession or slowing growth, the COVID-19 pandemic or other global or local health issues, geopolitical instability, changes or uncertainty in fiscal, monetary, or trade policy, higher interest rates, tighter credit, inflation, lower capital expenditures by businesses including on IT infrastructure, increases in unemployment, labor shortages and lower consumer confidence and spending, periodically occur. Increased costs for wafers, components, logistics, and other supply chain expenses, driven in part by inflation, have negatively impacted our gross margin and may continue to impact our gross margin. Inflation may also continue to cause increased supply, employee, facilities and infrastructure costs, decreased demand for our products, and volatility in the financial markets. To the extent such inflation continues, increases or both, it may reduce our margins and have a material adverse effect on our financial performance.
Economic and industry uncertainty or changes could have adverse, wide-ranging effects on our business and financial results, including:
•decrease in demand for our products, services and technologies and those of our customers or licensees;
•the inability of our suppliers to deliver on their supply commitments to us;
•our customers’ or our licensees’ inability to supply products to customers and/or end users;
•the insolvency of key suppliers, distributors, customers or licensees;
•limits on our ability to forecast operating results and make business decisions;
•difficulties in obtaining capital;
•reduced profitability may also cause some customers to scale back operations, exit businesses, merge with other manufacturers, or file for bankruptcy protection and potentially cease operations;
•lead to consolidation or strategic alliances among other equipment manufacturers, which could adversely affect our ability to compete effectively; and
•increased credit and collectability risks, higher borrowing costs or reduced availability of capital markets, reduced liquidity, adverse impacts on our suppliers, failures of counterparties including financial institutions and insurers, asset impairments, and declines in the value of our financial instruments.
We have engineering, sales support operations and manufacturing located in Israel. The State of Israel and companies with business in Israel have been and could in future be the subject of an economic boycott. Other countries have restricted and may continue in the future to restrict business with the State of Israel and companies with Israeli operations. Such laws and policies may have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
We may not be able to realize the potential benefits of business investments or acquisitions, and we may not be able to successfully integrate acquisition targets, which could hurt our ability to grow our business, develop new products or sell our products.
We have acquired and invested and may continue to do so in businesses that offer products, services and technologies that we believe will help expand or enhance our existing strategic objectives.
Acquisitions or investments involve significant challenges and risks and could impair our ability to grow our business, develop new products or sell our products and ultimately could have a negative impact on our financial results. Given that our resources are limited, if we pursue a particular transaction, we may limit our ability to enter into other transactions that could help us achieve our strategic objectives. If we are unable to timely complete acquisitions, including due to delays and challenges in obtaining regulatory approvals, we may be unable to pursue other transactions, we may not be able to retain critical talent from the target company, technology may evolve and make the acquisition less attractive, and other changes can take place which could reduce the anticipated benefits of the transaction and negatively impact our business. For example, in February 2022, NVIDIA and SoftBank announced the termination of the Share Purchase Agreement whereby NVIDIA would have acquired Arm from SoftBank. The parties agreed to terminate because of significant regulatory challenges preventing the completion of the transaction. We recorded in operating expenses a $1.35 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 reflecting the write-off of the prepayment provided at signing in September 2020. In addition, to the extent that our perceived ability to consummate acquisitions has been harmed, future acquisitions may be more difficult, complex or expensive. Further, if we hold investments in publicly traded companies, they could create volatility in our results and may generate losses up to the value of the investment.
Additional risks related to acquisitions or strategic investments include, but are not limited to:
•difficulty in integrating the technology, products, policies, processes, or operations and integrating and retaining the employees of the acquired business;
•diversion of capital and other resources, including management’s attention;
•assumption of liabilities and incurring amortization expenses, impairment charges to goodwill or write-downs of acquired assets;
•integrating accounting, forecasting and controls, procedures and reporting cycles;
•coordinating and integrating operations, particularly in countries in which we do not currently operate;
•difficulty in realizing a satisfactory return and uncertainties to realize the benefits of an acquisition or strategic investment, if at all;
•difficulty or inability in obtaining governmental, regulatory approval or restrictions or other consents and approvals or financing;
•stock price impact, fines, fees or reputation harm if we are unable to obtain regulatory approval for an acquisition or are otherwise unable to close an acquisition;
•legal proceedings initiated as a result of an acquisition or investment;
•potential issuances of debt to finance our acquisitions, resulting in increased debt, increased interest expense, and compliance with debt covenants or other restrictions;
•the potential for our acquisitions to result in dilutive issuances of our equity securities;
•the potential variability of the amount and form of any performance-based consideration;
•negative changes in general economic conditions in the regions or the industries in which we or our target operate;
•potential failure of our due diligence processes to identify significant issues with the assets or company in which we are investing or are acquiring; and
•impairment of relationships with, or loss of our or our target’s employees, vendors and customers, as a result of our acquisition or investment.
For example, when integrating acquisition target systems into our own, we have experienced and may continue to experience challenges including lengthy and costly systems integration, delays in purchasing and shipping products, difficulties with system integration via electronic data interchange and other processes with our key suppliers and customers, and training and change management needs of integration personnel. These challenges have impacted our results of operations and may continue to do so in the future.
Our operating results have in the past fluctuated and may in the future fluctuate, and if our operating results are below the expectations of securities analysts or investors, our stock price could decline.
Our operating results have in the past fluctuated and may continue to fluctuate due to numerous factors described in these risk factors. Therefore, investors should not rely on past comparisons of our results of operations as an indication of our future performance. Additional factors that could affect our results of operations include, but are not limited to:
•our ability to adjust spending to offset revenue shortfalls due to the multi-year development cycle for some of our products and services;
•our ability to comply with our customers’ contractual obligations;
•our extended payment term arrangements with certain customers, the inability of some customers to make required payments, our ability to obtain credit insurance for these customers and their extended payment terms, and customer bad debt write-offs;
•our vendors' payment requirements;
•unanticipated costs associated with environmental liabilities; and
•changes in financial accounting standards or interpretations of existing standards.
Any one or more of the factors discussed above could prevent us from achieving our anticipated future financial results. For example, we have granted and may continue to grant extended payment terms to some customers, particularly during macroeconomic downturns, which could impact our ability to collect payment. Our vendors have requested and may continue to ask for shorter payment terms, which may impact our cash flow generation. These arrangements reduce the cash we have available for general business operations. Failure to meet our expectations or the expectations of our investors or security analysts is likely to cause our stock price to decline or experience substantial price volatility.
Our operations could be affected by the complex laws, rules and regulations to which our business is subject, and political and other actions may adversely impact our business.
We are subject to laws and regulations domestically and worldwide, affecting our operations in areas including, but not limited to, IP ownership and infringement; taxes; import and export requirements and tariffs; anti-corruption; business acquisitions; foreign exchange controls and cash repatriation restrictions; data privacy requirements; competition and antitrust; advertising; employment; product regulations; cybersecurity; environmental, health, and safety requirements; the responsible use of AI; climate change; cryptocurrency; and consumer laws. Compliance with such requirements can be onerous and expensive, could impact our competitive position, and may impact our business operations negatively. For example, the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and other anti-corruption laws and regulations prohibit us from engaging in certain business practices. There can be no assurance that our employees, contractors, suppliers, or agents will not violate policies, controls, and procedures that we have designed to help ensure compliance with applicable laws. Violations of these laws and regulations can result in fines; criminal sanctions against us, our officers, or our employees; prohibitions on the conduct of our business; and damage to our reputation. Should any of these laws, rules and regulations be amended or expanded, or new ones enacted, we could incur materially greater compliance costs and/or restrictions on our ability to manufacture our products and operate our business. For example, we may face increased compliance costs as a result of changes or increases in anti-competition legislation, regulation, administrative rule making, increased focus from regulators on cybersecurity vulnerabilities and risks, and enforcement activity resulting from growing public concern over concentration of economic power in corporations.
Government actions, including trade protection and national security policies of U.S. and foreign government bodies, such as tariffs, import or export regulations, including deemed export restrictions, trade and economic sanctions, decrees, quotas or other trade barriers and restrictions could affect our ability to ship products, provide services to our customers and employees, do business without an export license with entities on the U.S. Department of Commerce’s U.S. Entity List or other U.S. government restricted parties lists (which is expected to change from time to time), and generally fulfill our contractual obligations and have a material adverse effect on our business. For example, in response to the war in Ukraine, the United States and certain allies have imposed economic sanctions and export control
measures and may impose additional sanctions or export control measures, which have resulted in and could in the future result in, among other things, severe or complete restrictions on exports to and other commerce and business dealings involving Russia, Belarus, certain regions of Ukraine, and/or particular entities and individuals. Such actions have limited or blocked, or could in the future limit or block the passage of our products, services and support into Russia, Belarus, and certain regions of Ukraine or other regions determined to be supporting Russia, which may result in claims brought against us for failure to fulfill our contractual obligations, and restrict access by our Russian or Ukrainian employees (both within and outside of Russia and Ukraine) to our systems, negatively impacting productivity. Given these recent sanctions and export restrictions imposed by the United States and foreign government bodies, during the first quarter of fiscal year 2023, we paused all direct sales and support in Russia. Concurrently, the war in Ukraine has impacted end customer sales in EMEA and may continue to do so in the future. While we have policies and procedures in place to ensure compliance with sanctions and trade restrictions, our employees, contractors, partners, and agents may take actions in violations of such policies and applicable law, for which we may be ultimately held responsible. If we were ever found to have violated export control laws or sanctions of the U.S. or similar applicable non-U.S. laws, we may be subject to various penalties available under the laws, any of which could have a material and adverse impact on our business, operating results and financial condition. Additionally, changes in the public perception of governments in the regions where we operate or plan to operate could negatively impact our business and results of operations.
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts worldwide, including but not limited to China, Hong Kong, Israel, Korea and Taiwan where the manufacture of our product components and final assembly of our products are concentrated, may result in changing regulatory requirements, trade policies, export controls, import duties and economic disruptions that could impact our operating strategies, product demand, access to global markets, hiring, and profitability. The increasing focus on the strategic importance of AI technologies may result in additional regulatory restrictions that target products and services capable of enabling or facilitating AI, including some or all of our product and service offerings. Such restrictions could include additional unilateral or multilateral export controls on certain products or technology, including but not limited to AI technologies. As geopolitical tensions have increased, semiconductors associated with AI, including GPUs and associated products, are increasingly the focus of export control restrictions proposed by stakeholders in the U.S. and its allies, and it is likely that additional unilateral or multilateral controls will be adopted. Such controls may be very broad in scope and application, prohibit us from exporting our products to any or all customers in one or more markets, including but not limited to China, and could negatively impact our manufacturing, testing, and warehousing locations and options, or could impose other conditions that limit our ability to serve demand abroad and could negatively and materially impact our business, revenue, and financial results. Export controls targeting GPUs and semiconductors associated with AI, which are increasingly likely, would restrict our ability to export our technology, products, or services even though competitors may not be subject to similar restrictions, creating a competitive disadvantage for us and negatively impacting our business and financial results. Increasing use of economic sanctions may also impact demand for our products or services, negatively impacting our business and financial results. Additional unilateral or multilateral controls are also likely to include deemed export control limitations that negatively impact the ability of our research and development teams to execute our roadmap or other objectives in a timely manner. Additional export restrictions may not only impact our ability to serve overseas markets, but also provoke responses from foreign governments, including China, that negatively impact our supply chain or our ability to provide our products and services to customers in all markets worldwide, which could also substantially reduce our revenue.
On August 26, 2022, the U.S. government, or USG, informed us that it has imposed a new license requirement, effective immediately, for any future export to China (including Hong Kong) and Russia of our A100 and forthcoming H100 integrated circuits. DGX or any other systems which incorporate A100 or H100 integrated circuits and our A100X are also covered by the new license requirement. The license requirement also includes any future NVIDIA integrated circuit achieving both peak performance and chip-to-chip I/O performance equal to or greater than thresholds that are roughly equivalent to the A100, as well as any system that includes those circuits. A license is required to export technology to support or develop covered products. The USG indicated that the new license requirement will address the risk that the covered products may be used in, or diverted to, a ‘military end use’ or ‘military end user’ in China and Russia. We do not sell products to customers in Russia.
The new license requirement may impact our ability to complete our development of H100 in a timely manner or support existing customers of A100 and may require us to transition certain operations out of China, which could be costly and time consuming, and adversely affect our research and development and supply and distribution operations, as well as our revenue, during any such transition period. We are engaged with the USG and are seeking exemptions for our internal development and support activities.
We are engaging with customers in China and are seeking to satisfy their planned or future purchases of our Data Center products with products not subject to the new license requirement. To the extent that a customer requires
products covered by the new license requirement, we may seek a license for the customer but have no assurance that the USG will grant any exemptions or licenses for any customer, or that the USG will act on them in a timely manner. The new requirement may have a disproportionate impact on NVIDIA and may disadvantage NVIDIA against our competitors, who are not subject to the same restrictions.
Our outlook for our third fiscal quarter provided on August 24, 2022 included approximately $400 million in potential sales to China which may be subject to the new license requirement. Our future revenue and profitability may be substantially reduced relative to this outlook, and our competitive position may be harmed, if customers do not want to purchase our alternative product offerings or if the USG does not grant licenses in a timely manner or denies licenses to significant customers. Even if the USG grants the requested licenses, the new requirement may benefit our competitors, as the licensing process will make our sales and support efforts more cumbersome, less certain, and encourage customers in China to pursue alternatives to our products, including semiconductor suppliers based in China, Europe, and Israel.
Recent restrictions imposed by the Chinese government on the duration of gaming activities and access to games may adversely affect our Gaming revenue, and increased oversight of digital platform companies may adversely affect our Data Center revenue. Additionally, revisions to laws or regulations or their interpretation and enforcement could result in increased taxation, trade sanctions, the imposition of import duties or tariffs, restrictions and controls on imports or exports, or other retaliatory actions, which could have an adverse effect on our business plans or impact the timing of our shipments.
We are subject to stringent and changing data privacy and security obligations. Privacy concerns relating to our products and services could damage our reputation, deter current and potential users from using our products and services, or result in legal or regulatory proceedings and liability.
Our products and services may provide us with access to sensitive, confidential or personal data or information that is subject to privacy and security laws, regulations, industry standards, external and internal policies, contracts and other obligations that govern the processing of such data by us and on our behalf. Concerns about our practices or the ultimate use of our products and services with regard to the collection, use, retention, security or disclosure of personal information or other privacy-related matters, including for use in AI, even if unfounded, could damage our reputation and adversely affect our operating results. The theft, loss, or misuse of personal data in our possession or by one of our partners could result in damage to our reputation, regulatory proceedings, disruption of our business activities or increased security costs and costs related to defending legal claims.
Worldwide regulatory authorities are considering and have approved various legislative proposals concerning data protection. The European Union adopted the General Data Protection Regulation, or GDPR, and the United Kingdom similarly adopted the U.K. GDPR, governing the strict handling of personal data of persons within the European Economic Area, or EEA, and the United Kingdom, respectively, including its use and protection and the ability of persons whose data is stored to access, correct, and delete such data about themselves. If we are found not to comply, we could be subject to penalties of up to €20 million or 4% of worldwide revenue, whichever is greater, and individuals may initiate litigation related to our processing of their personal data. Furthermore, there exists a proposed European regulation related to AI that, if adopted, could impose onerous obligations and could require us to change our business practices.
Certain jurisdictions have enacted data localization laws and cross-border personal data transfer laws. For example, the GDPR generally restricts the transfer of personal data to countries outside of the EEA. The European Commission released a set of “Standard Contractual Clauses” designed for entities to validly transfer personal data out of the EEA to jurisdictions that the European Commission has not found to provide an adequate level of protection, including the United States. While the European Union and United States governments have recently announced an agreement in principle on a new bilateral cross-border transfer mechanism, it is uncertain whether this agreement will be overturned in court like the previous two European Union-United States bilateral cross-border transfer agreements. Other jurisdictions, such as China, have enacted or are considering similar cross-border personal data transfer laws and local personal data residency laws, any of which would increase the cost and complexity of doing business and could result in fines from regulators. The inability to import personal data to the United States could significantly and negatively impact our business operations, limit our ability to collaborate with parties that are subject to European and other data privacy and security laws, or require us to increase our personal data processing capabilities in Europe and/or elsewhere at significant expense.
The United States federal, state and local governments have enacted numerous data privacy and security laws, including for data breach notification, personal data privacy, and consumer protection. The California Consumer Privacy
Act of 2018, or CCPA, gives California residents the right to access, delete and opt-out of certain sharing of their personal information, and to receive detailed information about how it is used and shared. The CCPA allows for statutory fines of up to $7,500 per violation and the law created a private right of action for certain data breaches. California’s privacy laws will further expand in 2023 under the California Privacy Rights Act of 2020, or CPRA, which may restrict the use of certain categories of sensitive personal information; further restrict the use of cross-contextual advertising techniques; restrict the retention of personal information; expand the types of data breaches subject to the private right of action; and establish the California Privacy Protection Agency to impose administrative fines. Virginia, Colorado, Utah and Connecticut have each passed their own privacy legislation which differ from the CPRA and each become effective in 2023. If we become subject to new data privacy laws the risk of enforcement action against us could increase as we become subject to additional obligations.
The interpretation and application of consumer and data protection laws in the United States, Europe and elsewhere are quickly changing and may be interpreted and applied in an increasingly stringent fashion and in a manner that is inconsistent with our data practices. These obligations may necessitate changes to our information technologies, systems, and practices and to those of any third parties that process personal data on our behalf. Despite our efforts, our personnel or third parties upon whom we rely may fail to comply with such obligations. If we fail, or are perceived to have failed, to address or comply with data privacy and security obligations, we could face significant consequences, including but not limited to, government enforcement actions, litigation, additional reporting requirements and/or oversight, bans on processing personal data and orders to destroy or not use personal data. Any of these events could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, business, or financial condition.
We have exposure to additional tax liabilities and our operating results may be adversely impacted by higher than expected tax rates and other tax-related factors.
As a multinational corporation, we are subject to income taxes as well as non-income-based taxes, such as payroll, sales, use, value-added, net worth, property and goods and services taxes, in both the United States and various foreign jurisdictions. Our domestic and international tax liabilities are subject to the allocation of revenue and expenses in different jurisdictions. Significant judgment is required in determining our worldwide provision for income taxes and other tax liabilities. We are regularly under audit by tax authorities in different jurisdictions. For example, we are currently under examination by the Internal Revenue Service for our fiscal years 2018 and 2019 and under audit in Germany, Israel and India. Although we believe our tax estimates are reasonable, tax authorities may disagree with certain positions we have taken, and any adverse outcome of such a review or audit could increase our worldwide effective tax rate, increase the amount of non-income taxes imposed on our business, and harm our financial position, results of operations, and cash flows. Further, changes in United States federal, and state or international tax laws applicable to multinational corporations or other fundamental law changes, including changes to existing tax rules and regulations under the current U.S. administration and Congress, such as resulting from the recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act, parts of which are effective for us in fiscal year 2023, and as a result of recommendations from intergovernmental economic organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, may materially impact our tax expense, the amount of non-income tax imposed on our business, and cash flows.
Our future effective tax rate may also be affected by such factors as changes in our business or statutory rates, changes in jurisdictions in which our profits are determined to be earned and taxed, changes in available tax credits and deductions, the resolution of issues arising from tax audits, changes in United States generally accepted accounting principles, adjustments to income taxes upon finalization of tax returns, increases in expenses not deductible for tax purposes, changes in the valuation of our deferred tax assets and liabilities and in deferred tax valuation allowances, changing interpretation of existing laws or regulations, the impact of accounting for stock-based compensation and volatility in our stock price affecting the recognition of excess tax benefits and tax deficiencies within the income tax provision in the period in which they occur, the impact of accounting for business combinations, shifts in the amount of earnings in the United States compared with other regions in the world and overall levels of income before tax, changes in the domestic or international organization of our business and structure, as well as the expiration of statute of limitations and settlements of audits. For example, a decline in our stock price may result in reduced future tax benefits or in tax deficiencies from stock-based compensation. Any changes in our effective tax rate may impact net income.