Jack_Bolander
7 days ago
WTM - A POST FROM ANOTHER BOARD :
Daniel
1 hour ago
Jack,
You are the first poster on this board that seems to recognize this fallacy of the Hydrogen myth.
It may have some niche uses (forklifts), and has some advantages for longer term storage and longer distance transportation, but it is starting at a HUGE disadvantage on efficiency. Having to take electricity through two completely separate chemical reactions (4 if you go through making ammonia to transport as room temperature liquid) just to get back to electricity is inherently inefficient.
Storing electricity as electricity using batteries or pump storage, makes more sense.
I've seen slightly different numbers, but not different enough to change the end calculation. Grid Power Hydrogen usage is a LONG ways off. Batteries, flywheel and better grid distribution will win in the short term.
Not until there is sooo much renewable power on the grid that the utilities are literally shutting down all the NatGas, Coal, Hydro generation, and still can't take any more will it make economical sense.
Trump just pushed that timeline out 4 years, and it was a long ways out already. H2 needs free electricity that no one else wants to use to make sense. I'll believe that when I see it.
Jack_Bolander
1 week ago
Here is an Interesting Read.
MORE BAD NEWS :
WTM - Here is a Letter from a Hydrogen Industry Thought Leader :
Dear all,
I was in Paris for three days to attend an international workshop on de-risking hydrogen projects and HyVolution. Here's my summary:
The workshop was coordinated by Mikaa Blugeon-Mered, and there were some 45 high-level experts from all continents. And me. I was the VUP in the room. I usually don't attend policy and finance workshops, because that's just none of my business. I am a technology guy, and I let others figure out how to deal with currency risks, political risks in developing countries and certification schemes. But this workshop was extremely interesting, and I learned a lot.
We'll do a webinar about the outcome in the near future (to be announced). [If you don't know what a VUP is: a Very Unimportant Person. ]
It was my first time at HyVolution. The mood was rather depressed. Of course, some of the usual suspects were still telling me that they are optimistic, but after a while they started talking about "restructuring" (which is code for "laying off people"), "management pressure" (which is code for "we don't sell enough"), "overcapacity" (which is code for "we have built a factory but don't know what to do with it because the market does not ramp up as expected") and so on.
Not good.
I am still wondering who can supply a 10 MW electrolyzer that I can simply plug in without issues. Some people don't even answer the phone (because 10 MW are too small), and some people only have small systems and I fear I would be their guinea pig again. There's not much in between. Interesting, isn't it?
The most interesting statement - that I can fully confirm - came from a guy that was in Australia recently. He said "When Australians wake up in the morning, they start talking about 5 GW projects or even more immediately. Nothing smaller. Then we went to see the largest electrolyzer in the southern hemisphere. It has 2.5 MW."
And that, my friends, is the truth: On PowerPoint, you can design hundreds of Gigawatts easily. But you have to deploy them as well. And from experience I can tell you that it's not easy. You need the right suppliers, you need trained and experienced people, and you need experience yourself. Real life experience, not experience from social media and studies. So you have to be willing to invest money - a lot of money - into that ramp-up. And if this does not happen, the suppliers will be gone, and the dream will remain a dream.
Long story short: the global, political and financial side is still bullish on hydrogen. Many people who have to get things done, sell sensors, valves and systems are in the "trough of disillusionment." Let's see where we are at the end of 2025.
In the meantime, we’ll continue our webinar series, and I hope you have registered for the next ones. If not: www.mission-hydrogen.com.
David