SEATTLE and PRINCETON, N.J., July
31, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- As America's coastal
communities continue to build homes in flood-risk zones, a new
analysis by Climate Central and Zillow® shows that nearly 20,000
homes built in the past decade are at significant risk of chronic
coastal flooding by 2050.
And if greenhouse gas emissions go unchecked, more than 800,000
existing homes worth $451 billion
will be at risk in a 10-year flood by 2050, the analysis shows.
Those numbers jump to 3.4 million existing homes worth $1.75 trillion by 2100.
The nationwide analysis that pairs Zillow's housing data
with Climate Central's sea-level rise expertise identifies the
number of new homes — and homes overall — in low-lying
coastal areas, projecting how many will become exposed to chronic
ocean flooding over the coming decades, depending on
the choices the world makes around greenhouse-gas pollution
today. It expands on analysis done last year that showed some
386,000 current U.S. homes are likely to be at risk of regular
annual flooding by 2050 because of sea-level rise from climate
change, and that new homes are being built at striking rates in
areas that face high risks of future flooding.
The findings are available in an interactive map displaying the
flood-risk zones, a sea-level tool detailing the number and value
of homes at risk by location, a research report on the threat to
new housing and a brief on the dangers to housing stock
overall.
As sea levels rise, the intermittent floods that coastal
communities now experience once a decade on average are projected
to reach farther inland than they do today. Those floods can damage
and devalue homes, degrade infrastructure, wash out beaches, and
interrupt transportation systems and other aspects of daily life.
They also put homeowners, renters and investors in danger of steep
personal and financial losses.
"This research suggests that the impact of climate change on the
lives and pocketbooks of homeowners is closer than you think. For
home buyers over the next few years, the impact of climate change
will be felt within the span of their 30-year mortgage," said
Skylar Olsen, Zillow's director of
economic research and outreach. "Without intervention, hundreds of
thousands of coastal homes will experience regular flooding and the
damage will cost billions. Given that a home is most people's
largest and longest-living asset, it takes only one major flood to
wipe out a chunk of that long-growing equity. Rebuilding is
expensive, so it's doubly tragic that we continue to build brand
new units in areas likely to flood."
Coastal communities will encounter the effects of sea level rise
to greatly varying degrees, depending on the local rate of
rise, local tides and storms, the potential future development of
coastal defenses, the flatness of the landscape and where homes are
built within it. Some major coastal cities sit high enough above
sea level that the biggest hit will be to their beaches. Others
will suffer more far-reaching and damaging effects.
Florida would have the most
homes in the zone at risk from sea-level rise and 10-year floods by
2100 (1.58 million), followed by New
Jersey (282,354), Virginia
(167,090), Louisiana (157,050) and
California (143,217) — assuming
levees and other infrastructure defenses hold, and emissions
continue unchecked. What's more, 24 cities including New York, Tampa and Virginia
Beach have built at least 100 homes in that risk zone since
2009.
"Thanks to Zillow's data, Climate Central's sea level rise
analysis provides an economic view of coastal flood risks that
homeowners may face – not generations into the future, but within
the time frame of a typical home loan," said Dr. Benjamin Strauss, CEO and chief scientist of
Climate Central. "In many states, building on land projected by
2050 to face chronic flood risks has outpaced development in safer
places. Failure to control climate pollution will lead to
faster-rising seas and bigger coastal risk zones, but building a
cleaner-running economy can still reduce these consequences."
Zillow
Zillow® is transforming how people buy, sell, rent and
finance homes by creating seamless real estate transactions for
today's on-demand consumer. Zillow is the leading real estate and
rental marketplace and a trusted source for data, inspiration and
knowledge among both consumers and real estate
professionals.
Zillow's proprietary data, technology and industry
partnerships put Zillow at nearly every major point of the home
shopping experience, helping consumers search for and get into
their new home faster. Zillow now offers a fully integrated home
shopping experience that includes access to for sale and rental
listings, Zillow Offers®, which provides a new, hassle-free way to
buy and sell eligible homes directly through Zillow; and Zillow
Home Loans, Zillow's affiliated lender that provides an easy way to
receive mortgage pre-approvals and financing. Zillow Premier Agent
instantly connects buyers and sellers with its network of real
estate professionals to help guide them through the home shopping
process. For renters, Zillow's innovations are streamlining the way
people search, tour, apply and pay rent for leased
properties.
In addition to Zillow.com, Zillow operates the most popular
suite of mobile real estate apps, with more than two dozen apps
across all major platforms. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and
operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG) and headquartered
in Seattle.
Zillow and Zillow Offers are registered trademarks of Zillow,
Inc.
Climate Central
Climate Central is a non-profit science and news organization
providing authoritative information to help the public and
policymakers make sound decisions about climate and energy.
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SOURCE Zillow