SEATTLE, Aug. 21, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Sellers expanded
their advantage in the housing market in July as market forces
continued to work in their favor, according to the July Zillow®
Real Estate Market Reporti. Buyers outnumber sellers and
snapped up homes at a record pace last month. Meanwhile, the divide
between the for-sale and rental markets widened as rent growth
continued to slow.
The for-sale housing market has been red hot despite enormous
job losses across the country, and home values have steadily
climbed. The typical home value was $253,527 in July, up 4.5% year over year -- the
fastest pace since May 2019. Annual
home value growth accelerated from June in 42 of the 50 largest
U.S. metro areas, led by San Jose,
Calif. (up 2.1 percentage points) and Hartford (up 0.8 percentage points). Homes
sold in July typically went under contract after only 16 days, two
days faster than the previous monthly low in Zillow data that dates
back to January 2018.
Month-over-month home value growth jumped from 0.4% in June to
0.48% in July, the biggest one-month acceleration since
May 2012. Home values grew month over
month in each of the top 50 metros after they fell in San Francisco and Detroit in June.
"This spring's housing soft patch is receding in the rearview
mirror as we get a clear picture of robust demand meeting
remarkably low supply," said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker. "Record-low mortgage rates and a
record-high number of people in their early 30s are combining to
fuel first-time buyer demand. Builders, acting on unprecedented
confidence, are racing to meet demand, but supply remains well
behind what's needed. This lack of inventory, along with
forbearance terms keeping unemployed homeowners in their homes,
stands in stark contrast to the Great Recession, when excess supply
and distressed sales brought down home values."
Zillow forecasts home value appreciation will slow to 3.6% over
the next 12 months from the 4.5% year-over-year growth seen in
July. In the short term, the updated forecast is now more
optimistic toward continued home value growth than previous
releases. The likelihood of pessimistic scenarios -- defined by
persistent unemployment, mass evictions and foreclosures and an
enduring spread of the virus -- has increased in recent months, and
that is reflected in the longer-term forecasted slowdown in home
value appreciation in Zillow's new, probability-weighted forecast
model.
"While the housing market has so far sailed through the headwind
of high unemployment, risks remain," Tucker said. "A slow economic
recovery that keeps millions of Americans looking for work could
dampen home buying demand and may even lead to a wave of
foreclosures when forbearance expires. This pessimistic possible
outcome for 2021 has caused Zillow's price forecast to shade down a
bit."
A major reason for the hot seller's market in much of the
country is the continued inventory shortage. Inventory is now down
28.4% year over year as of the week ending August 15, meaning there are 409,029 fewer homes
listed on the market than there were a year ago. Inventory is down
from last year in each of the 50 largest metros, and down the most
in Riverside (-46.5%),
Baltimore (-43.8%) and
Hartford (-43.1%).
In contrast to the strong for-sale market, the rental side of
the housing market continues to show softness. Year-over-year rent
growth slowed again, with the typical rent up 1.2% to $1,749. In February, rents grew 3.9% year over
year.
Rents fell from last year in nine of the top 50 markets. Rents
were up from the previous year in each of the top 50 metros as
recently as April. The biggest drops were in the three
most-expensive markets in the country -- the greater New York metro (-2.6% year over year),
San Francisco (-2.5%) and
San Jose (-2.2%).
Zillow's weekly dataii showed pending sales up 15.1%
year over year as of the week ending August
15. The median sale price as of the week ending July 4 -- the most recent data available -- was
$275,078, 3.7% higher than the same
period last year.
Mortgage rates listed by third-party lenders on Zillow started
the month at 3.26% and rose to a peak of 3.34% on July 3. Rates ended July at their monthly low of
3.03%. Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of
custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on
the Zillow Group Mortgages site by third-party lenders and reflect
recent changes in the marketiii.
Metropolitan
Area*
|
Zillow Home
Value Index
(ZHVI), July
2020
|
ZHVI - YoY
Change,
July 2020
|
Total Inventory
-
YoY Change,
Week Ending
August 15
|
Zillow
Observed Rent
Index (ZORI),
July 2020
|
ZORI - YoY
Change,
July 2020
|
United
States
|
$253,527
|
4.5%
|
-28.4%
|
$1,749
|
1.2%
|
New York/Newark,
NY/NJ
|
$491,993
|
1.7%
|
-17.1%
|
$2,758
|
-2.6%
|
Los Angeles,
CA
|
$696,601
|
4.9%
|
-26.7%
|
$2,600
|
0.5%
|
Chicago,
IL
|
$245,198
|
1.2%
|
-26.7%
|
$1,821
|
-0.3%
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
$259,586
|
3.5%
|
-27.1%
|
$1,628
|
1.1%
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
$259,764
|
4.3%
|
-37.9%
|
$1,619
|
1.1%
|
Houston,
TX
|
$222,271
|
2.9%
|
-23.8%
|
$1,537
|
-0.8%
|
Washington,
DC
|
$447,416
|
4.4%
|
-34.4%
|
$2,182
|
-0.5%
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
|
$308,522
|
3.5%
|
-12.0%
|
$1,975
|
1.2%
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
$249,624
|
5.3%
|
-21.9%
|
$1,610
|
2.7%
|
Boston, MA
|
$508,747
|
4.0%
|
-23.4%
|
$2,583
|
-1.0%
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
$1,119,628
|
1.2%
|
-2.9%
|
$3,217
|
-2.5%
|
Detroit,
MI
|
$186,913
|
3.5%
|
-34.1%
|
$1,270
|
2.1%
|
Riverside,
CA
|
$395,370
|
4.6%
|
-46.5%
|
$2,047
|
4.6%
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
$307,114
|
9.9%
|
-27.2%
|
$1,502
|
5.5%
|
Seattle,
WA
|
$551,311
|
7.9%
|
-33.6%
|
$2,043
|
1.1%
|
Minneapolis-St. Paul,
MN
|
$302,913
|
4.8%
|
-25.6%
|
$1,612
|
1.4%
|
San Diego,
CA
|
$639,238
|
5.0%
|
-37.8%
|
$2,410
|
1.6%
|
St. Louis,
MO
|
$186,055
|
4.0%
|
-30.8%
|
$1,153
|
2.9%
|
Tampa, FL
|
$239,208
|
6.3%
|
-31.1%
|
$1,574
|
3.6%
|
Baltimore,
MD
|
$300,684
|
2.0%
|
-43.8%
|
$1,722
|
-0.2%
|
Denver, CO
|
$455,591
|
3.9%
|
-29.2%
|
$1,800
|
0.2%
|
Pittsburgh,
PA
|
$165,002
|
4.0%
|
-25.8%
|
$1,136
|
2.9%
|
Portland,
OR
|
$425,758
|
4.5%
|
-31.3%
|
$1,689
|
1.2%
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
$247,689
|
7.4%
|
-39.7%
|
$1,528
|
1.7%
|
Sacramento,
CA
|
$439,664
|
4.7%
|
-40.1%
|
$1,876
|
3.7%
|
San Antonio,
TX
|
$210,845
|
2.8%
|
-22.7%
|
$1,382
|
1.2%
|
Orlando,
FL
|
$264,702
|
5.1%
|
-15.4%
|
$1,623
|
1.1%
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
$195,109
|
6.6%
|
-37.8%
|
$1,276
|
3.6%
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
$166,325
|
5.6%
|
-37.7%
|
$1,137
|
1.4%
|
Kansas City,
MO
|
$212,942
|
5.5%
|
-40.5%
|
$1,243
|
3.8%
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
$298,275
|
2.5%
|
-25.4%
|
$1,460
|
2.2%
|
Columbus,
OH
|
$220,377
|
6.4%
|
-37.5%
|
$1,333
|
3.1%
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
$191,069
|
7.2%
|
-39.4%
|
$1,315
|
4.6%
|
San Jose,
CA
|
$1,211,049
|
7.0%
|
-21.7%
|
$3,135
|
-2.2%
|
Austin, TX
|
$353,051
|
5.5%
|
-28.8%
|
$1,608
|
-0.2%
|
Virginia Beach,
VA
|
$250,878
|
4.4%
|
-37.1%
|
$1,407
|
2.6%
|
Nashville,
TN
|
$289,094
|
5.6%
|
-14.1%
|
$1,662
|
2.3%
|
Providence,
RI
|
$330,234
|
4.6%
|
-33.9%
|
$1,603
|
4.8%
|
Milwaukee,
WI
|
$210,584
|
6.7%
|
-10.4%
|
$1,157
|
1.8%
|
Jacksonville,
FL
|
$239,049
|
4.4%
|
-30.5%
|
$1,429
|
2.8%
|
Memphis,
TN
|
$162,989
|
7.9%
|
-39.3%
|
$1,369
|
7.3%
|
Oklahoma City,
OK
|
$163,683
|
5.9%
|
-31.5%
|
$1,109
|
1.3%
|
Louisville,
KY
|
$187,443
|
6.1%
|
-41.0%
|
$1,097
|
3.0%
|
Hartford,
CT
|
$245,322
|
3.1%
|
-43.1%
|
$1,422
|
3.0%
|
Richmond,
VA
|
$255,333
|
4.6%
|
-35.3%
|
$1,374
|
3.2%
|
New Orleans,
LA
|
$212,877
|
5.0%
|
-39.3%
|
$1,487
|
2.1%
|
Buffalo,
NY
|
$179,947
|
4.1%
|
-31.1%
|
$1,097
|
4.1%
|
Raleigh,
NC
|
$290,266
|
4.0%
|
-33.3%
|
$1,540
|
1.0%
|
Birmingham,
AL
|
$173,552
|
6.9%
|
-32.7%
|
$1,190
|
3.1%
|
Salt Lake City,
UT
|
$399,291
|
7.2%
|
-40.8%
|
$1,454
|
0.6%
|
*Table ordered by market size
About Zillow
Zillow, the top real estate website in the U.S., is building an
on-demand real estate experience. Whether selling, buying, renting
or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's businesses to find and
get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease.
In addition to for-sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers buys
and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country,
allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans,
our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to
get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home
purchase.
Millions of people visit Zillow Group sites every month to start
their home search, and now they can rely on Zillow to help them
finish it — with the same confidence, ease and empowerment they've
come to expect from real estate's most trusted brand.
Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and
ZG).
i The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly
overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports
are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information,
visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate
Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of
data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating
back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in
each county and publicly available through a county recorder's
office. Methodologies and all current monthly data at the national,
state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed
at www.zillow.com/research/data.
ii The Zillow Weekly Market Reports are a weekly
overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports
are compiled by Zillow Economic Research and data is aggregated
from public sources and listing data on Zillow.com. New for-sale
listings data reflect daily counts using a smoothed, seven-day
trailing average. Total for-sale listings, newly pending sales,
days to pending and median list price data reflect weekly counts
using a smoothed, four-week trailing average. National newly
pending sales trends are based upon aggregation of the 38 largest
metro areas where historic pending listing data coverage is most
statistically reliable, and excludes some metros due to upstream
data coverage issues. For more information, visit
www.zillow.com/research/.
iii Zillow Group Marketplace, Inc. is a licensed
mortgage broker, NMLS #1303160.
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SOURCE Zillow