New Equifax Study: Silent Seconds from the Borrower Perspective
19 November 2009 - 7:20AM
PR Newswire (US)
ATLANTA, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- To view this report as a .pdf
file, visit
http://www.equifax.com/PR/capmarket/CapitalMarketsDataPrimerFN.pdf
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20060224/CLF037LOGO)
Silent Seconds: Resounding Impact While home price depreciation
shows signs of slowing, secondary mortgage market investors still
have reason to be concerned about the impact of borrower equity.
According to a recent study conducted by Equifax Capital Markets,
the combined loan to values (CLTVs) on current loans are worse than
many realize. While home prices have dominated headlines, the
increased prevalence of second liens has gone underreported. In
July 2009, 25% of borrowers with current Alt-A loans had closed-end
seconds compared to 10% of borrowers in July 2005. The Equifax
study analyzed the state of non-agency securitized mortgage
borrower health from Q3 2005 to Q3 2009 by leveraging borrower
credit information, FHFA home price data and loan-level data. To
conduct its analysis, Equifax statisticians isolated the population
of non-agency securitized mortgages and studied the performance of
these loans across key default risk trends. CLTVs: Are You Aware of
All Subordinate Liens? CLTVs worsened dramatically in 2008.
According to Equifax research, the average CLTV for current Alt-A
loans increased from 75% in July 2005 to 107% in July 2009. This is
driven by home price declines and a dramatic increase in the
prevalence and size of second liens. What's striking is the
substantial impact of second liens reported on the borrowers'
credit files - liens that are not reported in loan-level data.
Figure 1 - CLTV for Current Prime and Alt-A Loans Over Time
http://www.equifax.com/PR/capmarket/Figure_01.jpg Behind the Loan:
Surprising Findings About Borrower Debt Load By analyzing credit
line utilization and balance trends on non-mortgage loans, Equifax
research uncovered some compelling findings. While a significant
number of sub-prime mortgage borrowers have typically had high
utilization of their revolving credit lines, Alt-A and Prime
borrowers caught up in July 2009. 22% of Alt-A borrowers with a
current mortgage loan utilized 80% or more of their total revolving
credit in July 2009, up from 10% in July 2005. Figure 2 - Percent
of Current Securitized Mortgage Borrowers with High Revolving
Credit Utilization
http://www.equifax.com/PR/capmarket/Figure_02.jpg - HELOCs
represent a significant portion of borrowers' revolving debt.
According to Equifax data, HELOCs remain prevalent within current
Alt-A and Prime loan borrowers. Specifically, 45% of prime and 33%
of Alt-A borrowers with securitized mortgage loans that are current
had a HELOC in July 2009. Figure 3 - Current Securitized Mortgage
Borrower HELOC Trends
http://www.equifax.com/PR/capmarket/Figure_03.jpg Industry
Expertise "As home prices moderate, comprehensive and up-to-date
information on second liens, including whether they exist as well
as their balance and payment status, will become more critical for
investors to know in order to accurately value non-agency
mortgage-backed securities and whole loans," said Steve Albert,
vice president, Equifax Capital Markets. Equifax Capital Markets
Equifax's suite of Capital Markets solutions empowers lenders and
investors to make buy/sell decisions with the most up-to-date
borrower and property value information available. Leveraging
unique data with advanced analytics and risk projection strategies,
Equifax provides unique, forward-looking information to help
investors manage through this highly sensitive credit environment.
For more information about Equifax Capital Markets, visit
http://www.equifax.com/capitalmarkets.
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20060224/CLF037LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Equifax Inc. CONTACT: Tim
Klein, +1-404-885-8555, , or Jennifer Costello, +1-404-885-8907, ,
both of Equifax Inc. Web Site: http://www.equifax.com/
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