Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAI) News

Sounds like Trump will exercise warrants. Many say the warrants can’t be exercised. But in that letter to Mr. Paul, Trump says he’s sell the common stock.

How can he do that without exercising the warrants?

Having FHFA and Treasury agree to exchange the senior preferred shares for commons instead, like what happened with AIG.

Of course, that is worse for legacy common shareholders than warrant exercise.

Current common shareholders should be begging Treasury to exercise the warrants because the only alternative is worse.

Question to the board, if Trump released all of the sealed documents pertaining to the conservatorship and these documents actually showed wrongdoing. What then would the share prices be if it the conservatorship was all unwound?

1) Why would the release of these documents lead to an unwinding of the conservatorship?
2) A bunch of documents were already unsealed showing Treasury's true motivations behind the NWS (to prevent the reversal of the non-cash writedowns in 2008 from benefiting the companies) and yet that didn't help any of the court cases.
3) The CAFC had access to these sealed documents and dismissed all the NWS takings cases anyway.

In light of all that, the only logical answer I can give is that the share price would be the same as it would be without the documents being released.

Which is the best preferred to trade? I have always just owned common. Curious what people think

For pure trading purposes it's FNMAS and FMCKJ because they have by far the most liquidity.

If you're looking to buy and hold, there are three scenarios:

1) Dividends resume. TBTF prefs are priced to yield around 5.5-6.0% right now, and I would expect FnF's juniors to be priced to a slightly higher yield initially due to their perceived risk. That would make the series with dividend rates in the 6.5-7.0% rate the best to own now. Those are FNMAI and FNMFN for Fannie, FMCKI and FMCCT for Freddie.
2) Juniors are offered an exchange for commons based on their dividend rate. Then it would be best to own the highest dividend-paying series like FNMAS and FMCKJ. This would also align you with the largest institutional holders.
3) Juniors are offered an exchange for commons based only on their stated ("par") value. Now it would be best to own the cheapest par possible, which are series like FNMAO, FNMAP, FMCCG, FMCCM, FMCCL, FMCCN.

you asked me to reply to other posters with the same zeal as I reply to you

Which clearly hasn't happened, though as you say you are not required to do what I ask.

Just like you, my tone varies based on the recipient.

And yet when I do it I am smug and narcissistic, while when you do it you're not? Get out of here. That's just another flavor of hypocrisy on your part.

If it is clean to exercise the warrants, then it should have happened already.

That's bad logic. It makes no sense for Treasury to exercise the warrants while the common shares have no economic value due to the senior prefs.

There is a reason. It is not legal!

Pure wishful thinking. What law does it break anyway?

Hint: don't say "takings" because that would be incorrect. A takings is by definition legal.

I don't understand all the hate/attacks on this board. You want just rah-rah cheerleaders? Or should you balance all perspectives?

The hate and attacks are from the cheerleaders themselves. It's about as effective as throwing pom-poms at someone.

Back of napkin FNMA valuation for me...
15B net income x 10x multiple = 150B market cap
150B / 1.15b outstanding shares = $125.5 per share

With warrant conversion:
150B / 5.76b shares = 26.05 per share (12x multiple gets us to $31pps)

If JPS are converted to common, that adds ~$760m shares (depending on conversion terms+new JPS if need capital raise)... stock still $18-23. Lots of upside on common in any of above.

With a $150B market cap and Treasury getting 80% of it, that only leaves $30B of value for the commons and junior prefs combined. The juniors won't convert for less than their full $19B of face value, leaving $11B behind for legacy common. That's a bit under $10 per share, and it represents a best case because the juniors getting a more generous offer and a capital raise would only add to the dilution.

If SP/LP aren't written off, that's game over... >$2 pps.

A senior-to-common conversion doesn't have to push the commons under $2, but it very well could. At the very least it would remove nearly all the upside from here.

Pure cognitive dissonance here.

If you really think FHFA and Treasury really are lying, cheating, thieving scoundrels then you have no business owning any FnF shares at all (common or junior pref) because they are the only ones that can unlock the value of those shares. Before all the court cases lost there was an argument that the court system could force them to do so, but that hope died with the Collins ruling and dismissal of all the NWS takings cases.

On the other hand, if you really think FnF shares have all this untapped value that shareholders will get to realize later, you must not think the government is that bad after all because they hold the fate of current shareholders in their hands. Otherwise you're just expecting them to suddenly change their stripes after 16 years of being hostile towards shareholders.

Pick a lane.

The fact remains: the Lamberth decision will become final, and damages will be paid because the NWS was a breach of the shareholder agreement.

Opinion disguised as fact. The Lamberth decision isn't final, though I expect it to be, but the damages would only get paid if neither side appeals or if there is an appeal and it upholds the damages (or changes them to some other number). I think it is very possible that the plaintiffs drop the lawsuit with no payment ever made to shareholders if the conservatorships resolve in a favorable enough manner.

For FHFA to use your argument that the LP ratchet is double jeopardy because "all current and future economic value" had already been extracted from the commons, would mean that the government would be admitting to a taking.

No. It would be them admitting that the NWS was a breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. Not a taking, because it wasn't a takings case and courts said the NWS itself was not a taking anyway.

Any breach of implied covenant that occurs outside of that finite period is a different breach. Just because an organization breaches a contract once, does NOT mean it can continue to do so, either in the same way, similar way, or new and unusual way. A breach is a breach. Period.

Then file your own lawsuit and find out. Put up or shut up. What you or I think is or is not a breach of the implied covenant doesn't matter, it's how a court rules. Do you really think the NWS would have been found to be a breach of the implied covenant if that lawsuit had never been filed?

This doesn't affect the validity of any of the points being made.

Another opinion disguised as fact. I think legal arguments from someone without skin in the game (i.e. not having filed a lawsuit) have an inherent lack of validity. It's like arguing how many angels fit on the head of a pin.

It just outs you as the hypocrite who doesn't want to respond based on the point being made, but rather say the point is invalid without a lawsuit.

I have actually responded many times as to why I think the LP ratchet is not a new breach of the implied covenant. You clearly disagree, but the burden of proof lies on you here. Without a lawsuit and subsequent court ruling to back it up, you have utterly failed to meet that burden.

How much of the $400B+ that Treasury owes would you estimate will end up being repaid, realistically? And how would that be repaid? By cancelling warrants? By paying off all preferred shares? Or maybe by some straight-up cash reimbursement from Treasury? Even though your analysis seems solid and right, it’s hard to imagine Treasury cutting a $400B check!

Considering negotiations leading up to any full release from c-ship, court outcomes, a yet-to-be-seen “narrative” that will surely be pushed during any “public input” phase, etc etc. Or do you expect the paying-back of $400B+ to be forced by some court case result?

What’s your ballpark guess as to what amount the companies will actually end up being reimbursed, and what form that reimbursement will take?

Many will not like this post.

If you spend any amount of time here, you will find that some posters are great contra-indicators: if they give you hate for your arguments then you're spot on.

I don't trust Bill Ackmen.

You are wise to be cautious. With his junior pref hedge in place, he has ways to profit off of recap/release without the common shares getting anywhere near his $31 price target.

You keep mentioning actions that other companies have done wrt preferred to common conversions excetera, and your logic seems to be that this is a precedent for a future action wrt the GSE's.

Yes, though the precedent is not the only reason I think a senior-to-common conversion (as opposed to writedown) is likely.

How does Treasury converting seniors or warrants into common shares transfer payments of capital to the GSE's? How much money do the GSEs get when the warrants are executed or the seniors converted?

The warrants state an exercise price of $0.00001 per share, payable to FnF upon exercise. If Treasury were exercise the warrants now and receive around 7.2B total common shares, they would pay a total of $72,000 to FnF combined.

It would be trivial for FHFA and Treasury to add in a similar clause to a senior-to-common conversion.

Congress required the corporations to only issue common shares for payment of capital with the one exception for employee incentives.

$72,000 is capital, albeit not very much.

Please educate me so I understand how this can occur legally.

With a couple strokes of a pen, the same way the NWS happened legally.

The "legally" part only matters if it is eventually and successfully challenged in court anyway.

re capital raise

the magnitude is on different continents if SP/LP are on the books --- versus wiped out

Not really. Both a senior-to-common conversion and a senior pref writedown involve adding $193B to all forms of FnF's regulatory capital: core, Tier 1, and CET1. It's about $121B for Fannie and $72B for Freddie.

The amount of capital they have to raise after that to hit their capital requirements is unaffected by which of these two Treasury chooses.

With SP/LP hanging around - we are at your suggested (as I recall) most likely 5-10 percent and with wipe out we are at 20% -- either 4X or 2X better off

Some people think that a senior-to-common conversion would happen at a rate dictated by prevailing market prices of the common. It might happen that way, but it doesn't have to.

Since you're the one hung up on the AIG model of pref conversion to commons, you very well damm know that the conversion happened around fall 2010.

December 8 2010 is the date on the agreement.

AIG common shareholders got warrants to buy at $45. After an initial spike to $61.18 on January 7 2011, the common share price didn't close above $60 again until June 3 2015. Anyone who didn't take immediate advantage of the warrants was sitting on out-of-the-money paper for over 4 years.

Those warrants did not at all "prevent dilution of common share price" as you claimed.

What happened to the share prices subsequently over the years?

They didn't get anywhere close to the pre-collapse highs, that's what. Just look at that chart.

FNMA topped out around $80 before the conservatorship started. If its chart continues to mirror that of AIG, it won't go above $10 for at least another decade.

1,200% Nearterm Gains expected for FNMA and FMCC investors! $$$$$

Ka-Ching! $$$$$

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/ackman-chases-1-200-profit-on-gse-trade-that-s-far-from-over

The 4th amendment stated all lawsuits be settled before release. I feel Lambert was waiting for an Admin change to Certify this 8-0 verdict so the Gov won’t appeal it. I’m sure he still feels he wants to stick it to the Gov before he retires. He really was admit in making sure he got an 8-0.

pre-mkt - looking for a $5 Wednesday -



FNMA $4.65 X $4.70 - 39,040 shares traded

FMCC $4.55 X $4.58 - 6,279 shares traded

Bill Ackman reposted ...


TRUMP is on the Phone ! ...

Warriors!  Shout out to Rodney for the detailed analysis on FNMA!
Better things ahead! 

Comments from Tim
https://x.com/1776_WE_THE_USA/status/1875609240993460294
The GSE common is a long term hold following the exit from C-Ship. The returns will accelerate over time. You can hold higher concentrations of preferred with less execution risk than the common near term. Common will outperform long term after a successful exit from C-Ship.

Ah. Thanks. Lamberth, right? not-yet-certified verdict?

Being currently not-yet-certified, does that case still disallow any exercising of warrants?

If Trump wanted to exercise warrants before Lamberth certifies the verdict, could he technically do that?

Can anyone find a link to the 8-0 Jury win ? Seems that it simply vanishes. We need to know the status, if possible. Or, is it still with Judge Royce Lambeth ?

Thanks Rodney for the detailed description! I wanted the newer people on this board to actually see the potential of these two and not listen to to Alongz’s bs. Thanks again !!!!

The lowelife crook run gov and mm and mm slave in msg board can't sleep due to their nightmare. Incoming DJT 47th POTUS in J20 only 12 days left. The crook run gov try to stir the pots about the F&F road map for out of Cship? Why haven't they done in the last 4 years? Oh, I see to busy with billions in wars from the the taxpayers with many life loss instead MAGA and smash and grab policy causing many business closing. I have no doubt the DJT admin 2.0 will liberate F&F out of cship and make the F&F SH at whole regarding J or common according letter to senator Paul. The crooks signal F&F out of Cship as the matter of time so the crooks run gov families need to swoop more F&F Share from the weak hands with the help from mm from what I see more news and news. Bottom line crook run gov the nightmare just begin with the new era run by DOGE . I guess we shall see. Stay tune.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2767

What are you even talking about? I wasn't responding to him. 

I have my commons to hold and don't want to trade them. Which preferred has the volume and interest to make it worth trading is my question.

1 hr pre-mkt - looking for a $5 Wednesday -



FNMA $4.55 X $4.55 - ........ 3 shares traded

FMCC $4.41 X $4.50 - 1,070 shares traded

Bill Ackman reposted ...


TRUMP is on the Phone ! ...

Thats not true. You obviously have not kept up to speed with trump transition team activity this past year

LOL, I'm not paying 38k to trade a stock with no volume. Trading requires volume and interest in the security.

Common Stock ? What common stock does the Gov own? SPSA?
He should be in the. mind set of releasing them and the Gov not steeling any more of them. The Gov stole the companies and there money and now he want to steel more of them and sell off common shares for a profit !

Since the 2021 letter - a Federal DC court Jury voted 8-0 that

the Contract was Violated as to Good Faith and Fair Dealing -

Sounds like Trump will exercise warrants. Many say the warrants can’t be exercised. But in that letter to Mr. Paul, Trump says he’s sell the common stock.

How can he do that without exercising the warrants?

Close above Fi fiddy(no gaps)

Name change Fannie Mae

NEW name - Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae
OLD name - Federal National Mortgage Association

A lot of you may think this is minor - but this is actually a great catch - thanks!

Nats

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/treasury-pact-clearest-signal-yet-trump-will-release-gses-says-compass-point

Hell yea!, Fi fiddy!,

I hope you wont mind when we pinch your shares, everyday there are fewer of your cohorts in their short positions. I can smell the fear.

"Wrong4zlies" strikes again!

Give it up...your trolling is meaningless and won't turn this battleship around. Go hump someone else's leg.

Hell Yeah!

Booooom ! - Bill Ackman "reposted" [/bl

Good morning Viking61,
Exciting times ahead. You asked “Question to the board, if Trump released all of the sealed documents pertaining to the conservatorship and these documents actually showed wrongdoing. What then would the share prices be if it the conservatorship was all unwound?”

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac calculations of interest owed to Shareholders from over payment sent to the Treasury, plus companies net worth, plus earnings power of the businesses.

Fannie Mae Intrinsic Value $440.03 per share

Freddie Mac Intrinsic Value $386.42 per share

The day of the take down Fannie Mae’s core capital of $47.0 billion and Freddie Mac’s core capital of $37.1 billion Totals $84.1 billion. This amount of core capital remained with the companies until the illegal commitment fee started sucking shareholders money into the dark hole of the Treasury. This continues until massive profits were foreseen by the Treasury coming in to the companies as net profit. At this time Treasury implemented the Net Worth Sweep. From the point in time of the start of the collection of the illegal commitment fee until the companies were allowed to retain earnings a total of $301.1 billion was sent to the Treasury.

$181.4 billion Fannie returned to Treasury. Form 10K Dec 31, 2023. Page 9

$119.7 billion Freddie returned to Treasury. Form 10K Dec 31, 2023 Page 5

Total $301.1 billion

For the purpose of a new lawsuit, that any district court has jurisdiction over, by reason of Federal Statute, the Treasury owes the companies the overage payment on total draws in the amount of draws $191.4 billion, the overage payment $109.7 billion, plus compounded interest; (recommended interest payment at a compounded rate of return 10%, in conjunction with the amount the FHFA recommended to the Treasury).

Under the funding agreement the Treasury paid to Fannie $119.8 billion Form 10k December 31, 2023 page 8

Under the funding agreement the Treasury paid to Freddie $71.6 billion Form 10k December 31, 2023 page 5

$191.4 billion total draws from Treasury

The calculation includes both companies and the calculation starts at the point in time when the Net Worth Sweep was implemented. Calculation of interest payments the Treasury owes Fannie and Freddie Shareholders.

Note: the interest calculation does not include the space in time from the start of the illegal commitment fee period up to the NWS. This amount should be calculated and added to the total amount of interest calculated below.

$301.1 billion sent to the Treasury.
Treasury draws totaling $191.4 billion
Difference of $109.7 billion the Treasury owes to the Shareholders in over payments.

August 17, 2012, Treasury and FHFA agreed to amend the PSPAs, changing the 10% dividend into a “Net Worth Sweep.” The Net Worth Sweep required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to pay the full amount of their net worth to Treasury every quarter. FHFA Director DeMarco, this non-elected bureaucrat, has been allowed to steal the companies for the Treasury.

From 2012 to 2024

At a compound annual growth rate of 10% on amount Treasury owes Shareholders $109.7 billion. The interest at the rate of 10% on $109.7 billion calculates within a 12 year period of time in the amount of $344.29 billion in interest.

Principal of $109.7 billion plus $344.29 billion in interest = $453.99 billion

The Treasury owes the Shareholders $453.99 billion

Compound Interest Calculator
Initial investment $109.7 billion, length of time in years 12, interest rate 10% annually.

Third quarter 2024
Fannie Mae Net Worth $90.5 billion
Freddie Mac Net Worth $56.3 billion

Combined Net Worth $146.8

$146.8 billion plus $453.99 billion = $600.79 billion

Fannie Mae common stock outstanding 1,158,087,567

Freddie Mac common stock outstanding 650,059,553

Combined common stocks
1,808,147,120 … ( Fannie Mae 64.05% Freddie Mac 35.95% }.

$600.79 billion / 1,808,147,120 =

$332.26 per share combined

Fannie Mae 64.05% is $212.81 per share

Freddie Mac 35.95% is $119.44 per share

The above calculation does not include the combined Earnings Power of the companies businesses.

EARNINGS POWER OF THE BUSINESSES

Fannie Mae’s common stock outstanding 1,158,087,567

$18.8 billion net income per year / 1,158,087,567 = $16.23 per share of earnings,

PE Ratio of 14 x $16.23 = $227.22 per share intrinsic value.

Freddie Mac common stock outstanding 650,059,553

Net earnings $3.1 billion per quarter, $12.4 billion net per year.

$12.4 billion net / 650,059,553 = $19.07 per share of earnings

PE Ratio of 14 x $19.07 = $266.98 per share intrinsic value.

Fannie Mae Earnings Power $227.22 plus 64.05% $212.81 = $440.03

Intrinsic Value $440.03 per share

Freddie Mac Earnings Power $266.98 plus $119.44 = $386.42

Intrinsic Value $386.42 per share

Again Note: the interest calculation does not include the space in time from the start of the illegal commitment fee period up to the NWS. This amount should be calculated and added to the total amount of interest calculated.

Indeed, you didn't word your post as well as you should have, especially with regard to Cmdr, who has done so much for this board. 

New Year is here and new start for us. I hope that you treat him with the same respect as most people do.🥰

The last thing on his mind is (FNMA) . 
He might watch the silly slide show and then shuffle slick suit and haircut shill right out the door . 
If he had 8 years he still wouldn't touch it . He did nothing in the first four when things were a lot better .If it ain't broke don't fix it .
Hopeful investors are in for a big disappointment any way you slice it .

No Preferred Warrants.



Ron

No one on this board has a short position. The only short positions are from 2008. There is no option chain, so the question is, who shorted FnF in 2008 and do they still hold their short position?

Even if it were $800 billion total at 4% interest the companies would make $32 billion a year in interest basically as much as they make now on the bottom line.

I’m thinking conservatively the Government would owe plus 10 percent interest without the settlements from the big banks 850-900 billion dollars. That would give the companies combined 1 Trillion dollars combined! Just guessing again, what would their prices per share be????

That’s not very predictable. The best indicator would be to chart the stock, but you’d have to use data from 20 years ago. Not sure how relevant that data is now. My WAG is $20

It will be huge to the Shareholders.

Question to the board, if Trump released all of the sealed documents pertaining to the conservatorship and these documents actually showed wrongdoing. What then would the share prices be if it the conservatorship was all unwound?

Well considering that the Government has been sitting on a 25 billion over payment during Mnuchin time and that the Government has received $310 billion in payments even after they confiscated $87 billion from the twins when they took them into conservatorship. I don’t believe that the Government is owed anything and on top of all of this . The Government received billions from the settlements with the to big to fails that should have went to Fannie and Freddie! The Mafiosa’s don’t need or deserve anything else!! GLTA!!

Allow me to translate the 8k filed today.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310522/0000310522-25-000004-index.html

It all comes down to this part...
(4) addresses any amendments to the SPSPA, senior preferred stock certificate or warrant that may be required to implement the recommended approach to the termination of the conservatorship.
•Conservatorship. Treasury will consult with the President prior to consenting to any request by FHFA, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac pursuant to Section 5.3 of the SPSPA related to a termination of conservatorship. ...which states "Wut Da Prez Sez Goze!"

Release Da Krakens!
vid of Whalen melt down upon GSE release

Tell da New Sheriff wuts up here... https://www.45office.com/info/share-your-thoughts