senor_c
3 days ago
I'll play. Under - by 3/14. Gulflink was approved on a Friday, so that's my attempt at an educated guess. I'll one up you; the pps will be .45-50 by then. The longer they wait, the tighter this thing gets. We're a shell stock holding .30-.35 with low relative volume (compared to 2022 when we were trading much higher volume at these levels and even higher), so it just tells you the mindset of current shareholders: "I ain't sellin'!"
Regardless, we are getting closer each day. We may see some short-term folks sell the news, but I'm betting that won't last long once things are official and Delfin begins to release news about plans, etc.
kazzy
6 days ago
I must be bored.
Here is the mention:
"Chesapeake Energy (now Expand Energy) and Devon Energy have also entered the space with deals done with the Delfin LNG project and with Gunvor, respectively. The established European trading houses have little appetite for long-term deals and prefer shorter-duration commitments. The retreat of utilities from long-term purchase commitments is illustrated by the fact that, based on GIIGNL data, of the 57 MMtpa (7.5 Bcf/d) of long-term..."
Searching for specific terms gives you relevant snippets of the article, but I'm not that bored to piece it all together.
The long-term contract has been the cornerstone of the global LNG industry since its inception. Such contracts between upstream LNG producers and downstream utility companies have provided buyers with security of supply over a protracted period while guaranteeing producers sufficient income to justify the investment in export facilities and shipping fleets. But times are changing, with significant LNG volumes under long-term contracts scheduled to expire by 2031. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential implications for LNG buyers and producers around the world, the options available to them, and how their choices may impact LNG commercial models.
The long-term LNG contract, typically running for 20-25 years, has allowed producers, over time, to expand production — all LNG plants have spare capacity — with the result that a short-term market has developed, generally defined as contracts of four years or less. In 2023, short-term volumes of LNG — which includes cargoes that were transacted on a spot basis — accounted for 35% of global LNG imports, or 141 million metric tons (MT), compared to only 19%, or 41.6 million MT, in 2010. The increase in short-term trade is a reflection of the increasing commoditization of LNG. Although the long-term contract remains, for now, the major medium for contracting LNG supply, accounting for 260 million MT (34.4 Bcf/d) of 2023 imports, more than 100 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa; 13.2 Bcf/d) of global long-term contracts are due to expire by 2031, as shown in Figure 1 below.
Long-Term LNG Contract Terminations Through 2031
Figure 1. Long-Term LNG Contract Terminations Through 2031. Source: GIIGNL
We should emphasize that the impact of this trend, should it continue, would affect U.S. LNG contracts at a later date. The first U.S. LNG export facility, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana, shipped its first cargo in 2016, so any long-term contracts for that site would likely go until at least 2036. Meanwhile, Calcasieu Pass has 20-year contracts that haven’t even started yet. Likewise, most of the new U.S. projects being built offer 20-year contracts that won’t even begin until the end of this decade. (To track the progress of U.S. LNG export projects under development, see our weekly LNG Voyager report.) It’s also important to note that the need for project financing — and the long-term commitments that provide it — is not needed for terminals that have already been built and the original 20-year-old deals underpinning them have expired, which makes shorter arrangements more viable. In addition, some of the long-term commitments signed recently for projects under development also provide volumes today — bridging cargoes intended to meet a buyer’s potential supply gap.
Uncleteddy
1 week ago
More recently, in January 2025, the Trump administration issued executive orders under the "Unleashing American Energy" agenda, directing MARAD to accelerate permitting for offshore LNG export projects like Delfin. Specifically, MARAD was instructed to decide within 30 days (starting January 20, 2025) whether project revisions require a supplemental environmental assessment. If no additional assessment is needed, MARAD must issue a license within another 30 days. This timeline suggests that MARAD should have made an initial decision by February 19, 2025, and, if applicable, issued a license by March 21, 2025.
dave79
1 week ago
Agreed. Plus, if I am reading everything correctly, Gulflink ROD was approved. but they now have 30 days to approve their license, which we know they will absolutely do.
For Delfin, the fact we are past the 30 day review for ROD approval, perhaps MARAD is working on announcing ROD & license approval at the same time?
kazzy
2 weeks ago
Nothing to do but wait, but I have a question for the board while we do so.
MARAD determination date quietly passed. If the conclusion was a favorable, then I assume we're in the 30-day window for the updated record of decision (ROD) and license issuance. Otherwise, we're in the 60-day window for the environmental assessment (EA).
I figure that meant we'll know definitively whether or not the license will be issued in March. Otherwise, we're in EA limbo until June.
However, the executive order states, "Within 30 days after issuing the EA, MARAD shall issue an addendum to the ROD, if necessary, and shall, within 30 additional days, issue a DWPA license consistent with the ROD."
What does that mean? It reads as though license issuance is a foregone conclusion in 30 or 120 days, regardless of MARAD determination. Can a DWPA license be approved and issued that is prohibitively restrictive to the project?