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Employment indicators reflect the overall health of an economy or business cycle. In order to understand how an economy is functioning, it is important to know how many jobs are being created, what percentage of the work force is actively working, and how many new people are claiming unemployment. It is also important to monitor the speed at which wages are growing.
In the US, the unemployment rate is released monthly and consists of surveys of both business firms and households. The business firms survey consists of the payroll, workweek, hourly earnings, and total hours of manufacturing, retail, government jobs and others. The household survey shows the overall labour force, and the number of people employed and unemployed. A decrease in unemployment signifies a maturing business cycle while an increase in unemployment signals a bust cycle. The unemployment rate is slow to change however, so fundamental traders look at other indicators for more immediate insights.
One of those indicators, which is released at the same time as the unemployment rate is the Nonfarm Employment Change. It measures how many new jobs were created the previous month. It is an easier number than unemployment to gauge the latest changes for labour in the economy. The currency markets anticipate this release every month.
This indicator is also more sensitive than the unemployment indicator. It becomes the flip side of the nonfarm payroll change as it shows when people are losing their jobs and need to apply for unemployment insurance. When employment conditions worsen, this will be one of the leading indicators to keep an eye on. It is released weekly, unlike most other indicators which are released monthly.
Average Weekly Hours is a sample of other employment indicators which are not as important, but can give clues to state of the economy. The average weekly hours put in by manufacturing workers, usually leads the business cycle since employers adjust work hours before changing the workforce.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or recommendations of any organizations or individuals mentioned. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professionals before making any financial decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any actions taken based on the content provided.
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