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Iván Marchena of Just2Trade: Tariffs, Trump, and the AI–Bitcoin Boom Shape 2025’s Market Outlook

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Investors face a rapidly shifting landscape shaped by trade tensions, Federal Reserve policy, and the explosive growth of artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies. From Apple’s tariff troubles to Trump’s push for lower interest rates, and from the dollar’s decline to Bitcoin’s bold new milestones, the year has already tested markets in ways not seen in decades.

In the following Q&A, we spoke to Iván Marchena, senior economist at global brokerage brand Just2Trade, to explore the most pressing questions investors are asking, spanning Wall Street’s Magnificent Seven, the S&P 500, ESG investing, and the future of Bitcoin. 

1. Could tariff uncertainty disrupt Wall Street’s Magnificent Seven in the second half of 2025? 

The tariff challenges facing Wall Street’s Magnificent Seven are particularly severe because many firms have already invested significantly in their adoption of artificial intelligence tools, and supply chain challenges could negatively impact already tentative cash flow

For firms like Nvidia and Apple, both of which rely heavily on doing business with China, the outcomes of trade negotiations between the US and the Asian powerhouse will have a major bearing on the fortunes of the stocks throughout the rest of the year.

President Trump has already voiced his displeasure with Apple CEO Tim Cook about his plan to manufacture iPhones sold in the US from China at newly built plants in India and has ramped up pressure to run the manufacturing process domestically in the United States. However, cost implications and difficulties in the sourcing and procurement of materials mean that the company will continue to rely on overseas manufacturing processes. 

2. Would a Fed rate cut help to prop up the dollar after its sinking value in 2025? 

While the dollar’s downward trajectory in 2025 has seen the currency experience its worst six months in over 50 years, a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could lead to further weakening, rather than strengthening. 

Generally, when the Fed lowers its interest rates, it makes the dollar less attractive to foreign investors, which causes the currency to depreciate. This is because lower interest rates reduce the ROI in US assets, with investors instead looking to currencies with higher yields. 

The dollar’s status as a global reserve currency and safe haven asset has historically provided some resilience in the face of depreciation, but with de-dollarization becoming more commonplace in recent months, there’s a danger that the dollar could fall further should more foreign investors begin to look elsewhere. 

3. What up-and-coming AI stocks are the most exciting for investors to monitor today? 

The artificial intelligence boom is continuing to gather momentum, and for investors put off by the high P/E ratios of large cap AI stocks, there are plenty of up-and-coming players on Wall Street, including: 

C3.ai Inc. (AI): C3 AI provides enterprise AI software built on solutions like fraud detection and predictive maintenance. Long pinpointed as one of the brightest new stocks associated with the artificial intelligence boom, C3 has already secured large contracts with the likes of the US Air Force and partnerships with major industry players such as Microsoft and ExxonMobil.

The company launched an agentic AI suite this year, paving the way for autonomous AI agents on behalf of their clients. 

CoreWeave (CRWV): Despite a muted IPO in March, CoreWeave closed out the first half of 2025 more than 300% higher, and with high-profile backers like Nvidia supporting the company, the future looks bright for the AI and cloud-based firm. 

CoreWeave provides cloud infrastructures for AI workloads and has boasted Q1 2025 revenue growth of 420% year-over-year. However, this rapid growth should be tempered by suggestions that the company has a high debt burden and is unprofitable under GAAP.

SoundHound AI Inc. (SOUN): SoundHound is a specialist in AI voice assistants for various applications, like vehicles and smart devices. Having recently expanded their partnerships with automotive brands and begun a rollout of in-vehicle voice commerce, the stock has plenty of potential to grow into the world of marketing. 

SoundHound is also developing a form of generative AI that can run offline in vehicles for a future rollout. 

4. Why does Trump want interest rates to be cut by the Fed so badly? 

President Trump’s consistent pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates stems from his belief that such a move would stimulate the US economy, lower the cost of government borrowing, and support his broader trade ambitions. 

Crucially, lower interest rates can help to boost economic growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers, and encouraging more companies to scale their operations. In turn, this can help to improve the job market in the US. 

The switch to lower interest rates would also help to alleviate some of the financial burden on national debt, which is seen ballooning to $47 trillion within four years. Lower interest rates would help to lower the cost of borrowing for the government. 

5. Will Apple sink or swim amid Trump’s reciprocal tariffs?

Apple’s international supply chain, which currently depends heavily on trade with China, has been a confounding factor in the stock’s 2025 performance. However, there are signs that the tech giant is working to overcome its challenges. 

Perhaps most notably, Apple recently announced that it would add $100 billion to its initial $500 billion pledge to invest in US manufacturing, which could help the company bypass tariffs in Asia while also winning favor with President Trump, who might assist the company in securing tariff exemptions in the future. 

Apple has also been proactive in diversifying its supply chain, shifting production of its US-bound iPhones away from China and to nations like India and Vietnam. Although Apple is likely to be heavily impacted by tariff restrictions, its preemptive measures could help to deliver a new level of resilience for the stock. 

6. Can ESG investing be a successful strategy in Trump’s United States?

Appetite for ESG investing appears to be declining stateside, with ShareAction’s Voting Matters report suggesting that while European asset managers supported 81% of shareholder ESG proposals on average in 2024, the figure fell to just 25% when it came to their US counterparts. 

Although President Trump has consistently rolled back funding for ESG initiatives, with his One Big Beautiful Bill particularly damaging for solar power initiatives, 90% of global investors remain interested in environmental, social, and governance investing. This suggests that investor appetite for ESG investment opportunities is still high worldwide and could pave the way for profitable long-term holdings. 

7. How high will the S&P 500 go by year-end 2025?

Market analysts are largely bullish on the outlook for the S&P 500 by the end of the year, with the likes of Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS all settling somewhere between 6,600 and 7,000 at the close of the year. 

The long-term prospects of the S&P 500 will depend heavily on factors like future Federal Reserve rate cuts, the de-escalation of geopolitical conflict, and the continued rollout of AI adoption. 

Should the Trump administration successfully reach sustainable trade agreements with key partners, there’s no reason why the S&P 500 can’t break new ground beyond 7,000 by the end of 2025. 

8. What are the best blockchain stocks to buy into today? 

The blockchain industry has been gaining momentum in recent years, and despite well-documented volatility due to its cryptocurrency links, there are plenty of stocks that stand to benefit from exponential growth within the industry. 

Block, Inc. (SQ) (formerly Square): Block CEO Jack Dorsey is a keen blockchain enthusiast and is actively looking to the technology to facilitate secure transactions in its Afterpay and TIDAL platforms. 

The fintech giant’s Cash App application also leans heavily on blockchain technology to support functionality with cryptocurrency holdings. 

Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU): The Latin American fintech leader has launched a plethora of blockchain services to enhance usability, and in its recent partnership with Lightspark, the platform intends to further improve the banking experience afforded to customers. 

Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT): As a major bitcoin mining company, Riot Platforms works closely with blockchain technology while generating energy-efficient operations within the United States. With the stock correlating closely with the likes of Bitcoin, Riot is a strong investment opportunity for any investors who believe in the potential of cryptocurrency. 

9. What could Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve do for Bitcoin?

The decision by the US government to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has the potential to transform Bitcoin’s legitimacy on the mainstream stage and improve price stability in the face of volatility. 

As Bitcoin’s circulation is limited to 21 million coins, setting up a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve can have a significant impact on the scarcity of the cryptocurrency, helping to drive its value higher and enhance its appeal as a long-term store of wealth. 

10. Will Bitcoin reach $150k in 2025? 

Factors like Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption and the strong performance of traditional financial markets like the S&P 500 offer a bullish outlook for the world’s most famous cryptocurrency for the rest of the year. 

Because of its volatility, the cryptocurrency is especially vulnerable to economic uncertainty, so the road to $150k will likely be contingent upon no more tariff shocks entering the field of play. 

However, the launch of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the increasing involvement of major financial institutions and corporations in integrating Bitcoin into products and services are helping to improve investor confidence and trust in what’s still very much an emerging market. 

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