Matt Simpson

S&P500 futures on news a previously agreed currency pact with China will be rolled out. China has “lowered expectations” for progress from this week’s trade talks. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given the US added 28 Chinese companies to their blacklist yesterday. There’s also reports that China would cut the scheduled […]

In a surprise move which probably shouldn’t come as a surprise, Trump admin goes for the usual shock tactic ahead of key talks with China. The Trump admin has added an additional 28 Chinese firms to its Entity List, which effectively restricts their ability to do business with the US firms. Whilst the US has […]

The ASX200 is on track for its third consecutive bullish session. Yet this may not be enough to keep bears at bay, given the depth of the prior decline. Last week we outlined the potential for ASX200 to mean revert on the weekly charts and Wednesday’s -2.3% decline only reaffirms this view. Now trapped between […]

Despite the weaker dollar, signs of stability are surfacing so we’re closely tracking DXY and EUR/USD for a near-term inflection point. And with the dollar index trading within two bullish channels, we don’t believe the dollar has topped out just yet. This brings EUR/USD into focus as it struggles to break above a zone of […]

Weekly COT Report: Gold Bugs Retreat Just Off Record Highs As of Tuesday 1st October: Bullish exposure on the USD was at $17.5 billion ($20.5 billion against G10 FX) Overall, only minor adjustments were made to FX majors on a weekly basis Net-long exposure to the USD index (DXY) hit a 2.5 year high Net-short […]

GBP/NZD has essentially oscillated in a wide, sideways range since last October and price action has provided well defined swings. And they’re not small swings either, coming in at an average of around 1900 pips. We think the top is in and now waiting for bearish momentum to extend to its downside. The New Zealand […]

ISM Services PMI: A Few Worrying Signs Yet With Some Positives Too | S&P500 There was more anticipation than usual for this month’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Why? As it’s much older brother, the ISM manufacturing PMI essentially rolled over and went into the fetal position. Fears of a global slowdown were already weighing on sentiment […]

EUR/USD Bears To Fade Into Rallies Below 1.10? Sentiment-wise, the USD is on the back foot following the deterioration of ISM manufacturing data. Yet we’d argue the dollar’s weakness could be temporary, like when the USD weakens following a Fed cut only to see it appreciate over subsequent weeks (even if counterintuitive to conventional wisdom regarding […]

ASX200 Mean Reversion Could (Finally) Be Underway We’ve been monitoring the potential for an inflection point on the ASX200 for the past couple of weeks and it appears cracks are now appearing at recent highs. There’s no denying it remains within a long-term uptrend trend on the weekly chart, as it trades within an established […]

It was another ugly data set from the ISM manufacturing read, but it may not mean we’re headed for a full-blown recession. If last month’s data was ugly, then this is even uglier. Not only have the headline PMI, new orders and production contracted at their fastest pace since the great recession, employment is its lowest […]