Matt Simpson

The US pulled the trigger, as promised, and hiked tariffs on Chinese imports, although trade talks are to continue on Friday. As we noted into today’s handover, the US hiked Tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200bn of Chinese goods. Within minutes, China vowed to retaliate although they stopped short on details. Looking at data from […]

The US have hiked tariffs as promised, although trade talks are set to resume in the US later today. Whilst this provides a glimmer of hope for a trade deal to be reached, the reality is we need to brace ourselves for a no-deal outcome. Either way, we expect trade talks to have a binary […]

USD/CNH hit fresh highs ahead of high-stakes trade talks, a currency move which will surely irk the president and have a large impact on markets if Yuan weakness is sustained. If momentum is persists it could be headed for 0.6920 and 0.6980 if Beijing allow. Over the near-term we’ve seen USD/JPY hold above its cycle […]

With WTI’s longer-term uptrend in-tact and a cluster of support above $60, we see potential for at least a minor bounce, if not a retest of its highs. That said, the break to highs may not be straight forward given the subtle clues in market positioning. Traders remain overwhelmingly net-long WTI, although a shift in […]

RBNZ cut rates for the first time since November 2016, taking it to a new record low of 1.5% today. Yet whilst NZD is broadly lower, RBNZ’s hint 1.5% is it for now could limit downside over the near-term. Summary of the statement: (OCR) has been reduced to 1.5 percent Lower OCR necessary to support […]

Trade talks in Washington are set to resume today and it could be a binary outcome for global sentiment. As Matt Weller pointed out, the US-China trading relationship (or lack of) will have dramatic impact on global markets and with a general lack of news-flow beyond the RBNZ meeting shortly, this is the only game […]

After much anticipation, the RBA opted to held rates at 1.5%, making it the 30-consecutive meeting without a change of policy since lowering rates to record lows. That doesn’t mean they’re out of the woods yet though… Looking at the differences between the April and May statement, the RBA continue to remain optimistic over employment […]

The RBA and RBNZ meetings are on our doorstep (RBA up in less than 2 hours) and with either having the potential to cut rates, we could be in for a lively 24hrs for AUD and NZD. The two main factors which have traders preparing for a rate cut tomorrow is RBNZ shifting to a […]

After coiling up, volatility has returned silver bears drive the metal down to it’s lowest level this year. And there could be further downside to come. As noted in our weekly COT report, large speculators dipped into net-short positioning to finally join bearish managed funds, who have been net-short since early April. Seasonally, Silver tends […]

A strong rejection of support places a clear line in the sand for bulls, who appear set to target the December 2016 highs. As Matt Weller noted in our FOMC recap the Fed left policy mostly unchanged (bar a 0.05% reduction of the IOER rate) yet remain concerned over price pressures. However, markets were positioned […]