Matt Simpson

With USD/CHF on the cusp of a bearish engulfing month, we take a look at the pattern’s forward returns alongside the Swiss franc’s seasonality.   Unless USD/CHF can close above 0.9864 by the end of the year, its on track to close December with a bearish engulfing candle. It’s by no means a not a […]

EUR/NZD Ponders Range Breakout In the 6th December, EUR/NZD tested the March trendline and began to rebound. Given the general lack of pullbacks since the decline from 1.7700, it was plausible to expect a larger rebound than the one that occurred. Yet 9 sessions later, its probing the said trendline once more and could be building […]

AU Employment Finishes the Year On A Good Note More to the point, today’s employment data reduced the odds of RBA cutting in February. For now. Unemployment rate falls to 5.2% (5.3% prior) 39.9k jobs added (highest gain since September 2018) Prior employment read revised lower from +14.7k to -19k Only 4.2k FT jobs though. […]

NZD/JPY Hovers Above Key Support Ahead Of GDP NZD/JPY is retracing from its highs towards a key level of support ahead of GDP data later today (tomorrow morning in Asia). Like AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY can also be a great barometer of risk for FX traders. Yet with a divergent theme underway between the Australian and New Zealand […]

The difference between a bearish engulfing candle or bullish hammer on the monthly chart is to be decided over the remaining sessions for the year. The US dollar is following its seasonal tendency of trading lower through the month of December. Currently around -1%, the USD index (DXY) is on track for a monthly bearish engulfing […]

RBA Headed For A Cut In Feb 2020? We highlighted after their statement earlier this month that the RBA could ‘ease’ their way into 2020, and the release of today’s minutes reaffirms this view. Noting February as a key date for them to “reassess the economic outlook”, data heading into next year is of vital importance […]

Weekly COT Report: Sterling Bears Unloaded Shorts Ahead Of UK Election As of Tuesday 10th December: Large speculators reduced net-long exposure to USD by -$1.6 billion to $18.2 billion. On the DXY, traders are their least bullish since July 2018 Minor weekly changes to net positioning overall. GBP saw the largest, with short exposure falling -7.4k […]

Like him or loathe him, Boris Johnson is on track for the biggest election win since Margaret Thatcher, which is some feat given how polarised the Brexit debate has always been.   British Pound traded broadly higher, with six out of the seven GBP pairs rallying over 2% in a matter of minutes. Volatility was very […]

It’s been a positive week for trade sentiment. Earlier in the week, the USMCA was signed which paves the way for US, Canada and Mexico to move forward on trade. And during the US session, President Trump teased traders with hope of a US -China trade deal by tweeting “Getting VERY close to a BIG […]

The British pound has continued to point both whilst conservative lead in the polls. With their lead narrowing and a defiantly strong British pound, it begs the question as to whether cable’s upside could be limited. This begs the question as to how much upside GBP/USD is capable of after such a stellar run and, […]