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For the first time, the U.S. Department of the Interior has proposed adding silver to its 2025 Critical Minerals List. If finalized, this move would mark silver as essential to America’s economic and national security.
The precedent is clear. When uranium and lithium were designated critical, both markets underwent dramatic transformations.
Uranium’s Revival
After Fukushima in 2011, uranium prices collapsed and the sector languished for years. That changed in 2018, when uranium was added to the Critical Minerals List. Within a few years, the U.S. funded a national reserve and invoked the Defense Production Act. By 2024, uranium prices had more than tripled.
Lithium’s Boom
Lithium followed a similar trajectory. Once an obscure chemical priced at $7,000 per ton, its 2018 designation as critical ignited a surge in demand. Automakers secured long-term contracts, government loans flowed, and subsidies reshaped the supply chain. By 2022, lithium spiked to $80,000 per ton—over ten times its earlier level—before settling at multiples above its pre-designation value.
Source: create.vista.com
Silver’s Case
Silver is larger in scale than uranium and lithium, but it faces its own structural challenge: chronic deficits. In 2024, global demand exceeded 1.16 billion ounces, while mine supply was only 820 million. Stockpiles now cover just a few years of consumption, much of it tied up in vaults and ETFs.
Unlike gold, silver is indispensable in industrial use. It is consumed in solar panels, EVs, semiconductors, and medical devices. With supply already tight, a critical designation could accelerate government stockpiling, spark investor demand, and strain production even further.
The Setup
History shows what happens when Washington elevates a mineral: capital rushes in, demand soars, and prices re-rate. For silver, with its dual role as both an industrial necessity and a monetary hedge, the impact could be profound.
The market fire is already burning. A critical designation would only pour fuel on it.
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