Hot Features
Premium
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Volatility following the Italian referendum has already calmed, although political uncertainty within Italy and Europe will continue to be a theme.
So, we now shift focus to the ECB meeting taking place tomorrow afternoon. The ECB are expected to extend its QE programme by six months, and continue purchases at a level of 80bn per month. The extension of the QE programme is highly likely, but the market is a little more uncertain on what the ECB will need to do next year. If the ECB position and feedback is more dovish than expected, the euro should come under pressure.
Data to come
Today we have German Industrial Production data which is expected to be strong, given the healthy PMI feedback and factory orders.
Later on from the UK we have the NIESR GDP estimate, which will be a reliable indicator for what GDP will be recorded as.
Article 50 developments
Theresa May announced that today, MPs will have the option to vote on the timeframe for triggering Article 50, to begin the official process of Britain’s exit from the EU. A proposed date of triggering the Article will be set for the end of March 2017.
The Prime Minister also stated she’d reveal the official plan for Brexit before triggering Article 50, after criticism from backbenchers. The Government hopes this will persuade MPs to support its schedule for starting the process of leaving the EU.
In the short-term, the Supreme Court hearing comes into focus, which considers whether Theresa May can continue with Brexit negotiations without MPs approval. For the pound, it would benefit if the high court decision for a Parliamentary vote before the trigger of Article 50 is upheld (the decision is expected in January).
The Supreme Court may also refuse to accept the result of any parliamentary vote as it will be deemed non-binding, and judges may demand that Parliament goes further and passes a piece of legislation detailing how Brexit will be negotiated. Although the pound could benefit on the move towards a ‘soft-Brexit’ it will be vulnerable to further Brexit related pressure as we get closer to trigger date.
