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Like those two boxing heavyweights who took a battering over the weekend, the yen has been the worst performing major currency this week at the time of writing surpassing the aussie and its related collapsing commodities. USD/JPY looks set for its third consecutive weekly gains hitting six week highs overnight. The pair is actually higher in ten of the last twelve days and is now approaching some key levels.
Of course as we have written previously, the yen has a very strong correlation with U.S 10 year Treasury yields and the FOMC statement last night pushed both yields and USD/JPY higher once more. Since languishing below 2.20% in Mid-April, yields have now moved above 2.36%. A mildly upbeat Fed looked through the soft patch of data calling it ‘transitory’ and along with ‘solid’ consumption rates and inflation being seen as close to target, the market has moved to pricing a June hike now as a near certainty (93% hike probability versus 61% last week). Indeed, three month treasury yields hit eight year highs though interestingly, the pricing of a second interest rate rise has moved only marginally.
We can see prices have been locked in a wide bear channel since the double top formed at the start of last year and beginning of this. Heightened geopolitical tensions in Asia coupled with softer equity markets tended to support JPY via safe haven demand from late February until the middle of last month.
However, since the French election first round, prices have reversed strongly with the pair bouncing off the 108 zone on several occasions. The widely watched 38.2% retracement level at 112.15 was taken out last night so we are now headed for the 50% retracement level from the highs and lows of this year around 113.35.
USD/JPY Daily Candle Chart
Key going forward will undoubtedly be tomorrow’s US employment data. Like before last month’s figures, the bar is very high to changing the Fed’s base case of two more hikes. This should underpin USD/JPY going forward to 115 potentially as yield differentials still remain near multi-year wides. Similarly the market seems to have got used to President Trump’s shifting policy priorities so any advance in reflation policies would boost the pair. Conversely, risks surrounding North Korea will remain elevated whilst the new President is throwing out metaphorical ‘bombs’ of his own so JPY’s risk-off profile is not to be ignored.
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