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I have one thing to say to all the Scrooge-type pundits who say that the FTSE is “in the red. “Bah. Humbug.” Wake up! It’s an index. It goes up and it goes down. It doesn’t go into the red. Stop saying that. You’re scaring everybody.
And, please accept my apologies. I have something more to say. You need to fly high up in the sky where Rudolph takes Santa every December. You can almost bet your Christmas stocking that Santa and his sleigh will create such a strong draft that the FTSE 100 will ascend along with the Old St. Nick and his reindeer.
In other parlance, I am asking you to step back from staring at that Christmas tree you have your nose up against, turn 180°, walk about a half kilometer, turn 180° again, and look at the forest. You’re standing so close to the tree that all you see is the cracks in the bark. I’m surprised you haven’t got a pine needle in your eye! Probably have.
“Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle all the way, oh what fun to see the FTSE on a bright December day. Hey!”
Before you all think that I’ve tipped a pint too many of holiday cheer, let me explain. I don’t drink. But I have discovered that, historically speaking, Santa has been very good to the FTSE 100 in the month of December – for a very long time. Take the last 20 years for instance.
Did you know that in 15 of the last 20 years the FTSE closed higher at the end of December than at the beginning of the year? That’s 75% of the time! There was that ugly December 2008 in there. You remember December 2008, don’t you? That was the year the bankers got coal in their stockings. But it sure helped December 2009 to finish higher. This year the FTSE opened below the 5600 mark. As of 14 December it is hovering at 5921, up 321.00. On top of that, it’s only 44 .00 points shy of its 2012 high of 5,966. How do you think December looks for the FTSE now? Based on those facts alone, I’d be expecting a present under the FTSE tree.
Now, if that isn’t enough to convince you that December 2012 seems destined to finish strong, take a look at this 20-year trend. Did you know that in 17 out of those 20 years the FTSE finished December higher than November? That’s 85% of the time! I’ll take those odds any time. And, just in case you haven’t noticed, we are midway through December and the FTSE 100 is up 270 points over the end of November so far. When I consider these facts, I’d be expecting a lot of presents under the tree!
I don’t know about you, but “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas, where the Footsie’s risen and faces glisten, to know they’ve made a lot of dough . . . so let your hearts be merry and bright, and may all your investment moves be right.” Merry Christmas, everyone!
