Glass three-quarters full as 75% of major metro areas achieve full home price recovery
11 September 2019 - 2:10AM
HSH.com, a trusted online resource for mortgage data, content and
expertise, has released its latest quarterly “Home Price Recovery
Index”. The analysis looks at the nation’s top 100 metropolitan
housing markets, including those with home prices at previous “boom
era” peaks and those that have not yet completely recovered.
The study examines home values in the top 100 metropolitan areas
from 1991 through the second quarter of 2019. Slower home price
gains in many markets saw only the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
join the ranks of the fully recovered in the latest quarter.
Despite years of economic expansion and improving real estate
markets, a quarter of the nation’s most populated metro areas have
still not seen values attain previous highs. Even if gains in value
accelerate, some markets seem unlikely to reach recovery in the
current economic and housing cycle.
HSH.com’s "Home Price Recovery Index" uses the Federal Housing
Finance Agency's (FHFA) Home Price Index for insight on housing
markets values since the last decade. Findings showed that of the
nation’s gains in home values cooled in the last quarter, with 21
of the 100 largest metro areas seeing quarter-to-quarter declines.
Three markets -- Frederick-Gaithersburg-Rockville, MD,
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA and Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA
notched small declines in value compared to the same quarter last
year.
Areas with greatest pricing recovery |
| Percent value now above “boom era” price
peak |
|
|
1. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO |
90.96% |
|
|
2. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX |
81.41% |
|
|
3. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA |
73.49% |
|
|
Areas with largest recovery gaps |
| Percent increase needed to regain price
peak |
|
|
1. Bakersfield, CA |
24.57% |
|
|
2. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL |
18.49% |
|
|
3. Camden, NJ |
16.66% |
|
|
It is important to note that many markets have seen significant
price recoveries since hitting their bottom values. However, many
have still not attained full recovery of lost value. There are now
six metros areas where this is the case, despite a doubling or more
of "bust era" bottom home values, and two remain in the group with
the largest value gap yet to close.
Areas nearing recovery |
| Percent increase needed to regain price
peak |
|
|
1. Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA |
0.14% |
|
|
2. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA |
1.14% |
|
|
3. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL |
1.25% |
|
|
Key takeaways
- Home price gains appear to be cooling. While there were
just three markets that had lower values in the second quarter of
2019 as compared to the second quarter of 2018, 21 metros posted a
lower value in the second quarter of 2019 than was seen in the
first. As the second quarter of each year contains the so-called
“spring homebuying season”, it is normally the period which has the
strongest demand by homebuyers, and that demand usually brings
higher prices. In contrast to this year, just 11 metros posted a
quarter-to-quarter decline in the same comparable period in
2018.
- Only eight metro areas still have double-digit value gaps
yet to fill. Last year, all ten of the markets with the largest
value gaps yet to fill still had double-digit chasms, none smaller
than 12.53%; two years ago, the smallest gap among this group was
18.50%, so the improvement for many unrecovered markets over that
time has been impressive.
- There was one new entrant into the "most recovered"
group. The Colorado Springs, CO metro area has been
coming up fast with strong gains in value and has elbowed its way
into the number 10 position, with current home values now 45.77%
above its boom-era peak. The market has risen from #20 in the
second quarter of 2017 to #13 last year at this time and has now
cracked the top 10.
There was more movement in the markets that have the greatest
gap yet to reach recovery, but only one new entrant slid into the
group. At 24.57%, Bakersfield, CA again retains the widest
housing price differential from its peak but is closing the gap
slowly. Faster improvements in other recovering markets allowed the
Lake County, IL-Kenosha, WI metro area to fall among the
ranks with a sizable gap to cover, with the difference between this
market's high value and current value of 9.06%
See the full analysis here:
https://www.hsh.com/finance/real-estate/home-price-recovery.html
Homeowners interested in seeing how their home's value has
changed over time are encouraged to use HSH.com's free
“Home Value Estimator” tool. The tool allows users to select their
market from 100 metropolitan areas and enter the time frame in
which they've owned their home; the tool reveals changes in the
home’s value during this ownership period and provides a current
price estimate based on housing cost trends in the selected metro
area.
About HSH.com
HSH.com is owned and operated by QuinStreet, Inc. (Nasdaq:
QNST), a pioneer in delivering online marketplace solutions to
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Jacqueline Leppla
QuinStreet
775-842-9048
jleppla@quinstreet.com
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