79% OF VOTERS APPROVE OF BIDEN'S DECISION TO STEP
DOWN
KAMALA HARRIS ENJOYS A 9 POINT JUMP IN
FAVORABILITY FOLLOWING HER ANOINTMENT AS THE FRONTRUNNER DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE
TRUMP LEADS HARRIS BY 3 POINTS, DOWN FROM HIS
JUNE 7 POINT LEAD ON BIDEN
NEW
YORK and CAMBRIDGE,
Mass., July 30, 2024 /PRNewswire/
-- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the
July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between
the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. The
new poll found that after an unprecedented month in American
politics that witnessed a failed assassination attempt on former
President Trump and President Biden stepping aside in favor of Vice
President Harris running as the Democratic candidate in November,
the horserace has reset to a 3-point lead for Trump, 48% to 45%,
with 7% still undecided.
Both Trump and Harris have benefited from a jump in favorability
due to these events, now tied at 48% and 47% favorability,
respectively. Nevertheless, with 24% of voters saying they could
change their mind, the matchup is highly competitive.
"The Democratic Party has recovered from what was a Titanic —
the iceberg of age was sinking them rapidly," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS /
Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Kamala Harris has come with lifeboats to put the
race back where it was."
The July poll covers public opinion on the candidates and the
GOP policy platform coming out of the Republican National
Convention. Download key results here.
HARRIS RE-ENERGIZES DEMOCRATS
- 79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down,
and 55% approve of his endorsement of Harris including 92% of
Democrats.
- Compared to June, more Democrats say they would vote for the
Democratic candidate (+5 points), and less Independents are unsure
of who they would vote for (-10 points). Most of those undecided
Independent voters say they would vote for Harris (Harris: +7
points; Trump: +3 points).
- Harris performs better among minority voters with the support
of a plurality of women (48%), Black (67%), and Hispanic (47%)
voters.
- 24% of voters say they have not made up their mind on who they
will vote for, including 20% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans, and
41% of Independents.
BIDEN'S DECISION TO STEP ASIDE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON APPROVAL
RATINGS
- Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%, up 2 points from
June.
- 54% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as
president, up 2 points from June. Among minority voters, 53% of
Hispanic voters and 40% of Black voters approve.
- Across political parties, inflation remains the most important
issue to voters personally. 48% of voters say their personal
financial situation is worsening, especially among women (53%),
Hispanic (51%), and rural (57%) voters.
- 65% of Black voters approve of the Democratic Party, while 59%
of white voters and 52% of Hispanic voters disapprove.
HARRIS WINS ON PERSONALITY BUT IS SEEN AS CONTINUITY OF
BIDEN, DIVERGING FROM ELECTORATE ON KEY POLICY PREFERENCES
- Between the two candidates, more voters believe Harris has the
right temperament, is more trustworthy, and is more honest, while
more voters perceive Trump as a fighter and someone who will get
things done.
- 67% of voters say Harris will continue Biden administration
policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy.
Roughly half believe she is politically aligned with Biden.
- A majority of voters oppose open borders (67%), ending private
healthcare options (68%), and mandating the replacement of gas cars
with electric vehicles (72%) — but a majority believe Harris
supports those policies (borders: 69%; healthcare: 53%; electric
vehicles: 72%).
- Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly
are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Harris.
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT GOP PLATFORM COMING OUT OF THE
CONVENTION
- A majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives like
protecting social security and Medicare, ending inflation, and
stopping violence and crime, including over 89% of Republicans and
over 79% of Independents across every policy issue.
- 33% of voters think the Republican Party left out abortion from
its policy platform because the party believes it is a state
decision. A plurality of Democratic (31%), 18-24 year-old (23%),
and Black (24%) voters believe the party has a secret plan to ban
abortion.
- 45% of voters and 76% of Republicans approve of J.D. Vance
as Trump's running mate, but roughly half of voters say the
selection has no impact on their vote.
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL IN THE
FACE OF HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS, WANT GAZA TO BE ADMINISTERED BY ARAB
NATIONS
- 66% of voters believe Israel
should retaliate if Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into the
north (age 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 82%).
- 82% of voters say Hamas should be removed from power in
Gaza, consistent with June
sentiment.
- A plurality of voters (38%) think Gaza should be administered by a new authority
set up through negotiations with Arab nations.
The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted within
the United States on July 26-28, 2024, among 2,196 registered voters
by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll
podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio,
Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm
that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to
inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients
in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate
reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and
earning organic media through public relations research. One of the
longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked
public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and
is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to
transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data
analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S.
and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100
companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and
philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster
of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political
Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to
and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S.
politics. Governed by a group of political scientists,
sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts
and Sciences at Harvard University,
CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy
about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge
research using a variety of methodologies, including historical
analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it
often cooperates with other Harvard
centers to support research training and encourage cross-national
research about the United States
in comparative and global contexts. More information at
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
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