80% OF VOTERS PRIORITIZE CANDIDATES' POSITION ON
ISSUES OVER PERSONAL QUALITIES IN CASTING THEIR VOTE
71% OF VOTERS SAY ELON MUSK'S ENDORSEMENT HAD THE
BIGGEST IMPACT ON THE ELECTION
NEW
YORK and CAMBRIDGE,
Mass., Nov. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell
(NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the November Harvard
CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for
American Political Studies at Harvard
(CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving
the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the
majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic
advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on
TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media,
and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the
new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but
want him to prioritize tackling inflation.
"This was an election about issues, and the economy and
immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message
of middle- and working-class economics," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS /
Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "But while he's won over
people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he
has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is
still a division of the election that has not yet resolved
itself."
TRUMP +2 ON HARRIS IN FINAL POLLING; +4 AMONG
INDEPENDENTS
- 50% of voters say they voted for Trump, including 92% of
Republicans and 49% of Independents; while 48% of voters say they
voted for Harris, including 90% of Democrats and 45% of
Independents.
- 82% of voters say they voted (Democrat: 86%; Republican: 87%;
Independent: 70%). Non-voters cited lack of motivation, feeling
like their vote didn't matter, and dislike of the candidates as top
reasons they did not vote.
- 37% of voters voted in-person on Election Day, 32% voted
in-person before Election Day, and 31% voted by mail. 56% of the
electorate say they made up their mind on who they were voting for
before September. 34% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans, and 32% of
Independents voted by mail.
- 11% of the 2024 electorate were first-time voters. 31% of
first-time voters decided who they were voting for before
September, 24% decided the week of the election, and 20% decided on
Election Day.
- 74% of voters voted on down-ballot races (House of
Representatives: 62%; U.S. Senate: 52%; Governor: 34%).
VOTERS MOTIVATED BY ISSUES AND CHANGE
- 80% of voters say the candidate's position on issues was the
most important factor when it came to casting their vote compared
to personal qualities (Harris: 71%; Trump: 90%; Democrat: 76%;
Republican: 87%; Independent: 78%;).
- The majority of voters said their response to the most
important issue facing the country was a main reason for their
candidate choice. Of those who said immigration was the most
important issue facing the country, 87% said it was one of the main
reasons, if not the main reason for their vote (abortion: 79%;
inflation: 77%; climate change: 66%). 29% of voters said inflation
was the main reason for their vote, 28% pointed to
immigration, and 26% pointed to abortion.
- 76% of voters say they voted for change rather than continuity
in how the country is managed (Harris: 60%; Trump: 91%; Democrat:
62%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 78%).
- Of key events from the presidential campaign, voters say the
Trump vs. Harris debate (36%), Trump surviving the assassination
attempt (32%), and Trump declaring no tax on tips (32%) made them
more likely to vote for Trump.
TRUMP AND GOP APPROVAL RATING REFLECT ELECTION RESULTS AND
DISCONTENT WITH DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, INFLATION, AND
IMMIGRATION
- Trump's approval rating as president-elect is at 54%, 12 points
higher than Biden's as president, including 91% of Republicans and
49% of Independents. The majority of male, 18-54 year old, white,
Hispanic, urban, and rural voters approve of Trump.
- 49% of voters approve of the Republican Party's job (+3 from
October), while 44% approve of that of the Democratic Party (-3
from October).
- 27% of voters say the country is on the right track, down 4
percentage points from October (Democrat: 29%; Republican: 32%;
Independent: 17%).
- Inflation (45%) and immigration (16%) continue to be the most
important issues to voters personally, with inflation a concern
across party lines, immigration of more concern for Republicans
(28%), and abortion (18%) and climate change (13%) more of a
concern for Democrats.
PERCEPTIONS OF TRUMP STILL DIVIDED FOLLOWING THE
ELECTION
- 54% of voters say Trump has been trying to unify rather than
divide the country since the election (Democrat: 24%; Republican:
89%; Independent: 50%).
- 52% of voters believe Trump is a threat to democracy (Democrat:
81%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 45%). 53% say Trump should
continue to be tried on criminal charges (Democrat: 87%;
Republican: 16%; Independent: 55%).
- 68% of voters say their greatest hope for the new Trump
administration is to end inflation and price increases (Democrat:
57%; Republican: 81%; Independent: 68%), followed by the
revitalization of the American economy (43%) and American values
(42%).
- 46% of voters say their greatest fear is Trump behaving like a
dictator (Democrat: 74%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 49%). Other
top fears among Democrats are irreparable damage to the U.S.
government and agencies (56%) and the Trump administration moving
too far to the right (55%). The greatest fear among Republicans is
massive protests by the left (47%).
- Of Trump's cabinet appointments, more voters favor rather than
oppose Susie Wiles (+11),
Mike Huckabee (+6), Vivek Ramaswamy (+5), and Marco Rubio (+3). Voters are split on
Elon Musk (+1) and oppose
Matt Gaetz (-8).
VOTERS FOLLOWED ELECTION NEWS CLOSELY, RELYING ON TV AND
SOCIAL MEDIA; BELIEVE MUSK HAD BIGGEST IMPACT
- 81% of voters say they followed the presidential election
somewhat or very closely.
- 46% of voters say they used TV news channels (Democrat: 45%;
Republican: 49%; Independent: 42%), while 23% used social media
platforms (Democrat: 26%; Republican: 22%; Independent: 20%) and
10% relied on news outlet websites.
- ABC News (36%) and Fox TV News (33%) were the most popular TV
channels for election coverage, while Facebook (43%), Google (39%),
and YouTube (39%) were the most popular social media platforms for
news.
- 51% of voters say they felt election news was fair while 49%
believe it was biased. Among those who felt news was biased, 57%
say it was biased against Trump and Republicans (Democrat: 23%;
Republicans: 87%; Independent: 51%).
- 60% of voters say journalists today are mostly practicing
advocacy as opposed to unbiased journalism.
- Elon Musk (65%), Taylor Swift (63%), and Oprah
Winfrey (54%) were the most known endorsements heading into the
election. 71% believe Musk's endorsement had the biggest impact on
the election (Joe Rogan: 43%;
Taylor Swift: 36%).
- 42% of voters say Elon Musk's
endorsement had some or significant impact on their vote (Democrat:
32%; Republican: 55%; Independent: 31%), and 37% say the same about
Joe Rogan (Democrat: 31%;
Republican: 47%; Independent: 28%).
The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted
online within the United States on
November 13-14, 2024, among 1,732
registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the
Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at
https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts,
Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm
that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to
inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients
in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate
reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and
earning organic media through public relations research. One of the
longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked
public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and
is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to
transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data
analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S.
and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100
companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and
philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster
of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political
Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to
and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.
Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists,
historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences
at Harvard University, CAPS drives
discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all
aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research
using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis,
social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often
cooperates with other Harvard centers
to support research training and encourage cross-national research
about the United States in
comparative and global contexts. More information at
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
PR@stagwellglobal.com
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SOURCE Stagwell Inc.