Igor Kuchma

Get ready – the quantitative tightening is on the way! Although the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged last week, it did confirm its intention to end bond purchases in the third quarter. The ECB said it plans to reduce its bond purchases under its Asset Purchase Program to €30 billion in May […]

According to the minutes of the meeting, the Fed plans to reduce the monetary balance by $95 billion each month ( $60 billion in Treasury bills and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities). Thus, if the balance sheet reduction begins as early as May and the amounts indicated do not change (which may happen depending on […]

On Friday, April 1, the Chinese government began tightening restrictions for the western hemisphere of the city. It is an extension of the measures that were in force in the eastern part, which were for four days, but were also extended. Among the main consequences of the closure of Shanghai is the generation of new […]

Despite geopolitical tensions, risk-on is back on the market: equities rally, while defensive assets such as Treasuries and the Japanese yen suffer significant declines. At the same time, financial markets have continued to position themselves in favor of tighter monetary policy and, as a result, bond yields have soared, especially in the US. The dynamics […]

As expected, the US Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points. The dot plot with forecasts of interest rate developments suggests a seven-fold increase this year, to 1.75-2% (in December the committee expected three 0.25 percentage point hikes). By the end of 2023, the interest rate could rise to 3%. At […]

The difficult geopolitical environment continues to weigh on the global economy: amid rising commodity prices, Goldman Sachs downgraded the US GDP forecast for 2022 from 2% to 1.75% (y-o-y). With a 20-35% probability, the country could suffer a recession in the coming year. The situation is complicated by the fact that a rate hike could […]

It has been just over a week since the geopolitical tensions reached their pinpoint, yet there is still no light at the end of the tunnel. The second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine ended in Belovezhskaya Pushcha in Belarus. The parties agreed to organize humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians and delivery […]

When the worst that can happen has already happened – Russia began an invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military operation by land, air, and sea was launched after a pre-dawn television address in which President Vladimir Putin demanded that the Ukrainian army lay down its arms. Earlier last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that […]

It looks like the “tightening” of monetary policy is already around the corner. “Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate,” according to minutes of the Jan. 25-26 Federal Open Market […]

One of the most important developments last week was the announcement of an unscheduled board meeting by the FED. Most probably, members of the regulator will discuss the steps to take in order to calm down the inflation bonanza. The main intrigue is whether manipulating rates will help in curbing CPI. After all, this inflation […]