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Igor Kuchma

After the "Trump Trade" comes the "Taco Trade"?

03 Jun 2025 @ 00:36
Following Donald Trump’s election victory, one of the hottest topics — along with tariffs, of course — was the so-called “Trump Trade” and whether it could be repeated. For those unfamiliar with the term, it gained traction after his victory in 2016, as markets reacted to his promises. Long story short, the “Trump Trade” fueled […]
 

Markets can't survive on Trump's mood swings alone

27 May 2025 @ 20:00
By now, it seems everyone knows Donald Trump’s negotiating playbook: start with aggressive threats, then move to “productive talks” and praise continued dialogue. Yet time and time again, markets react to each new tariff headline, no matter how predictable the cycle has become, first with a full-blown risk-off and then with a risk-on. His recent […]
 

Moody's marks the end of an era for the U.S.

19 May 2025 @ 23:22
The last bastion has fallen: the United States has lost its pristine credit status. With the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from “Aaa” to “Aa1,” the three major agencies — Fitch, S&P, and now Moody’s — have ended the illusion of unlimited fiscal strength. The reasoning is simple: skyrocketing deficits and a debt […]
 

Are the trade wars finally over?

13 May 2025 @ 00:58
As there is a fine line between love and hate, S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, etc, need a dash of hope to move from panic to euphoria. This time, that hope came from encouraging news from Geneva: Beijing and Washington reached a temporary agreement in Geneva to reduce each other’s tariffs on their products. Under the […]
 

What's happening with oil prices and what's next?

06 May 2025 @ 20:04
Uncertainty in geopolitics remains high, the price of gold is back above the $3,300 mark, and yet oil starts the week in the red. This is mainly due to two reasons. First, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% for the first time since 2022, while analysts were expecting a 0.4% increase. Second, OPEC+ has decided […]
 

Is There Hope For A Breakthrough In Geopolitics?

29 Apr 2025 @ 23:15
Negotiation efforts around two of today’s most critical conflicts – Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas – feel like rowing a boat tied to a dock: there is movement, but no real progress. Ceasefire talks continue, and some common ground seems to be emerging; however, the bloodshed shows no signs of ending. And if […]
 

Trump's tariffs virtually guarantee a rise in U.S. inflation

22 Apr 2025 @ 18:57
What economists have been warning for months is starting to materialize: the New York Fed reported a jump in inflation expectations for next year, from 3.1% to 3.6%. Meanwhile, data from the University of Michigan shows an even bigger increase: expectations for next year have risen from 5.0% last month to 6.7% today. This is […]
 

Trump’s Tariff U-Turn: What Made Him Change Course?

14 Apr 2025 @ 22:44
Not even a full week had passed since the so-called “Liberation Day” when Donald Trump hit pause, delaying tariffs for 90 days on countries that chose to negotiate rather than strike back. Just on Monday, Trump brushed off all the rumors about this move, but they turned out to be true, pushing the S&P 500 […]
 

It’s Not A Market – It’s A Roller Coaster

08 Apr 2025 @ 19:57
This Friday marks the start of the new earnings season, with the banks kicking things off, as usual. But investors have their minds on something entirely different: the unfolding drama of trade wars. Most economists seem to agree that if the situation plays out poorly, meaning the measures announced on April 2 aren’t rolled back, […]
 

Where Are Investors Looking Now?

01 Apr 2025 @ 18:43
The days when markets kept rising despite negative news are over — dips are no longer getting bought up, and instead of raising their S&P 500 forecasts, major banks are revising them downward. Goldman Sachs, for example, now expects the index to reach 5,700 by the end of 2025, down from its previous target of […]
 
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