Igor Kuchma

Following Donald Trump’s election victory, one of the hottest topics — along with tariffs, of course — was the so-called “Trump Trade” and whether it could be repeated. For those unfamiliar with the term, it gained traction after his victory in 2016, as markets reacted to his promises. Long story short, the “Trump Trade” fueled […]

By now, it seems everyone knows Donald Trump’s negotiating playbook: start with aggressive threats, then move to “productive talks” and praise continued dialogue. Yet time and time again, markets react to each new tariff headline, no matter how predictable the cycle has become, first with a full-blown risk-off and then with a risk-on. His recent […]

The last bastion has fallen: the United States has lost its pristine credit status. With the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from “Aaa” to “Aa1,” the three major agencies — Fitch, S&P, and now Moody’s — have ended the illusion of unlimited fiscal strength. The reasoning is simple: skyrocketing deficits and a debt […]

As there is a fine line between love and hate, S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, etc, need a dash of hope to move from panic to euphoria. This time, that hope came from encouraging news from Geneva: Beijing and Washington reached a temporary agreement in Geneva to reduce each other’s tariffs on their products. Under the […]

Uncertainty in geopolitics remains high, the price of gold is back above the $3,300 mark, and yet oil starts the week in the red. This is mainly due to two reasons. First, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% for the first time since 2022, while analysts were expecting a 0.4% increase. Second, OPEC+ has decided […]

Negotiation efforts around two of today’s most critical conflicts – Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas – feel like rowing a boat tied to a dock: there is movement, but no real progress. Ceasefire talks continue, and some common ground seems to be emerging; however, the bloodshed shows no signs of ending. And if […]

What economists have been warning for months is starting to materialize: the New York Fed reported a jump in inflation expectations for next year, from 3.1% to 3.6%. Meanwhile, data from the University of Michigan shows an even bigger increase: expectations for next year have risen from 5.0% last month to 6.7% today. This is […]

Not even a full week had passed since the so-called “Liberation Day” when Donald Trump hit pause, delaying tariffs for 90 days on countries that chose to negotiate rather than strike back. Just on Monday, Trump brushed off all the rumors about this move, but they turned out to be true, pushing the S&P 500 […]

This Friday marks the start of the new earnings season, with the banks kicking things off, as usual. But investors have their minds on something entirely different: the unfolding drama of trade wars. Most economists seem to agree that if the situation plays out poorly, meaning the measures announced on April 2 aren’t rolled back, […]

The days when markets kept rising despite negative news are over — dips are no longer getting bought up, and instead of raising their S&P 500 forecasts, major banks are revising them downward. Goldman Sachs, for example, now expects the index to reach 5,700 by the end of 2025, down from its previous target of […]