Matt Simpson

Despite no obvious signs ECB have intervened, EUR/CHF sprang higher after warning of a bear-trap and warns in a change in trend. We’d noted that SNB had been intervening with their currency to prevent the Swiss franc from gaining too much traction, yet not by quite enough to prevent it from trending lower. This was slightly frustrating, […]

NZDCAD has been a trend that has kept on giving. We’ve been following its demise closely, since identifying its test of a long-term bearish trendline back in March, it’s double-top in April and potential 300-pip slide in June. After breaking below the 0.8500 target, the cross remains in an established bearish channel and shows the […]

Weekly COT Report: Bullish Exposure Hits A 5-Week High As of Tuesday 3rd September: Traders increased net-long exposure to USD by +$2.6 billion, which make them the most bullish on USD in 5 weeks at $13.1 billion (or $16.2 billion against G10 currencies) Traders of the US dollar index (DXY) were their most bullish in 6-months […]

Risk appetite has made a comeback just as we head into the end of Q3. With indices, yields and copper rallying, the oppressive forces Trump’s trade war has held over markets has been lifted, allowing markets to rebound like a jack in the box. There’s still no guarantee these talks will lead to anything, and there’s […]

Sentiment has been given an extra boost in Asia today, on reports that US and China are set to resume trade talks In October. Sentiment had already been lifted by stronger China Service PMI yesterday, along with news Hong Kong’s PM was to officially withdraw the extradition treaty. But it was today’s trade-war breakthrough which […]

In-light of a weaker USD and lift in sentiment, we could see pairs such as USD/CNH and USD/SGD extend their corrections It’s early days, but we’ve seen a slight lift in global sentiment, resulting in the Chinese Yuan being allowed to appreciate against the USD at its fastest daily pace in 2-months yesterday. Considering that […]

The Closer You Look At ISM’s PMI, The Uglier It Gets | EUR/USD, USD/CHF With PMI crossing below 50, calls for a recession are again on the rise. And this is no surprise, given the red flags within the internal indices. Of the 10 sub-indices, 9 are contracting (below 50) New orders are at a […]

AUD Rebounds On Softer Growth | AUD/USD, GBP/AUD Despite the multi-year low for annual GDP, it came in around expectations to help lift the Aussie from its lows. Q3 GDP 1.4% YoY 0.5% MoM   Yesterday we noted that RBA removed any reference to GDP levels in their August statement, which appears to have been a shrewd […]

RBA held rates as expected, although there we some subtle changes to the statement which warrant keeping tabs on. Summary Of The RBA September Statement The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although risks are tilted to the downside GDP in H1 has been lower than expected, with low income growth and declining house […]

The gold/silver ratio has rolled over once more. Whilst we can see it headed for the mid-70’s, a few technical indications point towards a pause first.   In percentage terms, we had suggested it could reach the mid 70’s if we’re to see a similar retracement to the one seen in 2016, and momentum during this decline […]