Matt Simpson

RBA and GDP On Tap For AUD and ASX200 The expectations for RBA to cut tomorrow are quite low at just 11%. Therefore, traders will scrutinise the statement for any clues and no doubt short AUD if it appears more dovish than August’s statement. Overall, RBA appeared a little more upbeat on the domestic economy […]

Weekly COT Report: Bullish Exposure on USD Continues To Dwindle As of Tuesday 27th August: Traders were net-long USD by $10.6 billion, down -$0.34 billion from the prior week to make a fresh 14-month low. Against G10 currencies, traders are net long by $13.68 billion, down -$0.82 from the prior week. Traders increased net-short exposure on […]

Monday 2nd September AU manufacturing PMI, company profits, business inventories NZ trade balance JP business capex, manufacturing PMI CN manufacturing PMI EZ, FR, DE, UK manufacturing PMI (final reads)   Tuesday 3nd September South Korean CPI and GDP AU current account, retail sales, RBA cash rate decision UK construction PMI EZ producer prices CA manufacturing […]

Historically, September Has Been A Bearish Month For USD/CHF Using historical data, we’ve mapped out a seasonal matrix for FX majors and noted the bearish tendency for USD/CHF in September. The matrix may appear a little confusing at first, although what we’re essentially looking for is a high positive (low negative) number to suggest a […]

It’s been a volatile month for markets, with the fallout from the ongoing trade war, attacks on the Fed, Brexit and Italian elections (to name a few rivers). This may feel counter to how markets ‘should be’ during the lazy summer periods yet, according to the seasonality for VIX, it appears to be on track […]

A look at how markets have performed following a US 10-2 yield curve inversion. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you may have heard a thing or two about the yield curve inverting in the news recently. In fact, you probably heard the several months lead-up to its potential too. Well, the yield curve […]

With DAX having risen to a pivotal zone of resistance, we highlight two clear scenarios worth monitoring. As highlighted by my colleague Matt Weller, indices are locked within a range whilst they await the catalyst for their next directional move, and the DAX is no exception. The past 7 sessions have seen the index confined […]

We suggest keeping a close eye on the monthly close on NZD, given the importance of the technical juncture it sits at. We can see on the monthly close that that NZD/USD is on the cusp of testing a key, long-term level. Prices are trading just above the August 2015 low and close to testing […]

GBP and GBP/JPY Could Be Setting Up For A Swing Trade Short Since Friday we have seen cable’s counter-trend rally extend, yet it remains within the bearish channel and has provided a two-bar reversal pattern beneath the upper trendline and Fibonacci retracement level. The UK’s 10-2 yield inverted last week and the spread between US […]

Despite the nice downtrend on EUR/CHF, we urge caution amid signs of SNB’s FX intervention. Focussing purely on the technicals, EUR/CHF has provided a decent bearish trend on the daily chart, having shed over -5.5% since its April high. The 20-day eMA is capping as resistance and Friday’s bearish engulfing candle suggests a swing high is in […]