Matt Simpson

With the Fed widely expected to cut rates later today, we take a look at market returns for FX majors, commodities and the S&P500 following such an event. Using Fed Funds data from 1971, we filtered the Fed cuts and calculated average, forward returns up to +20 after a cut to see if we can […]

The lack of market driving news and the pending ECB meeting on Thursday has seen volatility well contained across FX markets this week. We don’t expect that to last. Whilst there is some speculation that ECB could ease this week, we believe it to be more likely they’ll use Thursday’s meeting to lay the groundwork […]

Weekly COT Report: USD Long Exposure Drops To A 3-Month Low As of Tuesday 16th of July: Net-long exposure for USD hit a 13-month low at $11.66 billion ($16.4 billion against G10) Traders are their most bullish on CAD futures since March 2018 Sterling traders extend net-short exposure to a 10-month high FX majors weekly […]

It’s not been a great couple of months for oil prices. And, currently on track for its worst week this year, we suspect there are further losses to come. News that the US had ‘destroyed’ an Iranian drone saw Brent rally 2% during the Asia session, yet we’re far convinced this will be enough to […]

Dovish comments from Fed officials has put a 50bps cut in July back onto the table for markets, and markets were quick to respond. Fed’s William’s said current estimates of the US neutral interest rates are around 0.5% and, if inflation gets stuck below goal, people’s expectations may push inflation lower, “reducing the Fed’s ability […]

Weaker Exports Weigh On Sentiment Weak export numbers from Japan weighed on sentiment, with manufacturing confidence hitting a 3-year low. Treasuries and equity markets are lower, although contained remains contained overall. Australian employment failed to light another match under rate-cut calls, supporting AUD during a slightly risk-off session. Unemployment remained steady at 5.2...

Since its bull-trap at the start of the month, a lower high appears to have formed and the cross is now testing a potential breakout level. Two weeks ago, we noted that CHF/JPY’s bull-trap and subsequent crash through key support had slammed it back onto our bearish watchlist. Sometimes it can take a little longer […]

ASX200: Bullish Outside Day Hints At A Swing Low | Equity Technical Scan The index snapped a 3-day losing streak as bulls try to carve out a new low. Whilst the jury is still out for a rebound, we’ve filtered and ranked equities which have outperformed the sector for consideration. The ASX200 remain in a […]

GBP/USD Breaks Its 52-Week Low: Has That Provided An Edge In The Past? To be more precise, GBP/USD has actually closed to a 25-month low. But having recently tested how the S&P500 responded to its 52-week milestone, we extend our curiosity the cable. Brexit woes have continued to weigh on GBP, with reports of Boris […]

It’s earnings season for the US tech sector, with Netflix, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Apple all due to report over the coming days. Whilst Netflix has rallied 39.5% this year, the bulk of its gain came in January and has struggled to keep pace with Facebook. Furthermore, its found resistance around $386.80 and prices […]