16 Nov 2017 @ 22:55
Sentiment as indicated by my sentiment indicator (BTI) turned bearish a week before the FTSE 100 peaked at 7582.9. We have a good example of bearish sentiment at work here. I remember when I was calling for a decline at the start of November, despite the strength of the market and despite the fact that […]
31 Oct 2017 @ 23:16
After the rally in the first half of October, there is a risk the FTSE 100 will turn down to resume its decline. The October high at 7565.1 remains intact, this level is close to the all time high at 7599. There is strong resistance in the area 7565-7599. Based on the Elliott wave pattern […]
15 Sep 2017 @ 00:25
The stock market rally is running out of steam, the FTSE 100 is breaking down and the S&P 500 is at key resistance. The FTSE 100 has been trading sideways for months, today it looked as if it was going to re-test the upper range above 7400. The index was near 7400 until midday when the […]
27 Jul 2017 @ 23:17
Stock markets in the US are making new all-time highs but in Europe it’s a different story. The Dax is way below its all-time high following a surge in EUR/USD and in the UK the FTSE 100 trend has turned down. The FTSE 100 peaked at 7599 on 2nd June. The UK index has underperformed […]
16 Jun 2017 @ 20:14
Two weeks ago I produced a chart of FTSE 100 with a yellow rectangle in the area 7550-7650, I called this area “Top area”. The reason I was expecting a top was twofold; the trend reversal indicator (34-day BTI) was overbought and the Elliott wave pattern was in five waves. Bull markets end in five […]
02 Jun 2017 @ 00:00
Yesterday the rally extended to new highs, then we saw a sudden and sharp reversal, the FTSE 100 lost nearly 1% in the afternoon. During the morning session we had the opposite scenario, the FTSE was very strong, even the declining oil price failed to stop the rally. And when the pound started to rally […]
03 May 2017 @ 19:27
Yesterday was a very quiet day with the FTSE 100 trading in a 30 pts range, the S&P was not moving either. I read that the standard deviation of the S&P 500 from January to April is at its lowest in 20 years. Standard deviation is a measure of volatility, when the index moves sideways […]
24 Feb 2017 @ 00:08
As I write GBP/USD is pushing back to 1.2500, we could be at the start of a larger move to 1.2700. The pound has been trading sideways for a while, this kind of move is generally a pause in the main trend. If we assume that the trend is up (the rally from the low […]
04 Feb 2017 @ 02:56
When the FTSE 100 does not behave as you expect you need to find out why. Then you need to adapt your strategy. I see that many people find it difficult to adapt, for example in January they kept shorting the FTSE 100. According to IG, 80%-85% of traders were short during the massive January […]
13 Jan 2017 @ 02:17
In general I don’t produce long term forecasts (FTSE 100), there are so many events that can happen in a year, the forecast is likely to be off the mark. I am a short term trader focussing on the next few days / few weeks. However, this year we are approaching the end of an […]
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