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Weekly Trading Forecasts (February 25 – March 1, 2013)

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EURUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
The EURUSD traded in a significant downwards move recently – a bias that is ever valid. The indicators on the chart now give a vivid support of the bears’ hegemony. The price has already broken the support line at 1.3300 to the downside, and the next target would be the support line at 1.3100. In the near term, however, there could be some bullish retracements which are not expected to take the price higher than the resistance line at 1.3200.

USDCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
This pair was able to completely shrug off the equilibrium forces that were impeding its bullish determination. There has now been a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and the ‘buy’ signal is still pretty new. Though, there could be some pullbacks that would try to take the price downwards towards the support level at 0.9300, eventually, the price could reach the resistance level at 0.9400 within the next several trading days.

GBPUSD
Primary trend: Bearish
So far in this year, the Cable has dropped by close to 700 pips (a scenario that remains extant). All trend-following indicators are pointing to a weak market, especially given the bleak economic outlook and fundamental data that are coming from the UK. There has been a temporary ‘upward bounce’ of the price from the accumulation territory of 1.5150. And this proffers an opportunity to buy higher in the context of an ongoing downtrend. The market could reach the accumulation territory at 1.5000 eventually.

USDJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
There appears to be a new short selling indication on the USDJPY chart, although the long-term outlook is bullish. For the past 3 weeks, this pair has found it difficult to trend significantly higher: it rarely went above the supply of 94.00. With all possibility, the potential is more to the south, because buyers seem to have thinned out. This could be a unique opportunity to enter on the side of the sellers while the price of the USDJPY is still dear. Should this outlook hold on for a few more days, then the bullish trend is over.

EURJPY
Primary trend: Bearish
On this instrument, the price recently dropped by nearly 300 pips! This was a significant downtrend move in the context of abortive bullish attempts. Right now, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, which means that the trend has completely changed and one would need to seek short trades only. There could be some transient rallies in this market, but they are not supposed to take the price up beyond the supply zone of 124.00. This is a bear market, and the price might eventually reach a target of 121.00.

Conclusion: The more buying or selling pressure is perceived, the more activities are carried out by bulls and bears. This means that bulls and bears strive to get fair values for their bids and offers. On the other hand, if the price doesn’t stay long at a noteworthy market level and fails to go back to that level in a given time horizon, there mayn’t be much equilibrium phase as far as the market is concerned. This means that the bears think the price has gone too far to the upside and they refuse to transact further, or the bulls think that the price has gone too far to the downside, and thereby refusing to do further transaction.

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