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With 2017 fast approaching we at Faraday thought it would be useful to outline 10 key events of the forthcoming year:
Early January: UK Supreme Court Rules on Article 50
The UK Supreme court will rule whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May can trigger Article 50 herself or if parliamentary consent is needed. Current expectations are that the Supreme Court will rule that a parliament vote is required.
20th January: Donald Trump Inauguration Ceremony
Present-Elect Donald Trump will officially become the US president and the changeover from the Obama administration to the Trump administration will take place.
14th – 15th March: The Fed’s Quarterly News Conference
The first Federal Reserve quarterly report of Trump’s presidential term. By this time we can expect greater details surrounding Trump’s policy mandate and as such how the Federal Open Market Committee believes this will impact future inflation / the interest rate path will be followed even more closely than normal.
16th March: US Debt Ceiling
The US Federal borrowing limit is set to be reinstated on March 16th. Without an agreement to raise this limit we will see the US surpass its legal borrowing limit, thereby paving the way for a US debt default. This of course won’t happen, but cue another fight over government spending.
End of March: UK to Trigger Article 50
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly said she will trigger Article 50 by the end of March. This will formerly start the negotiation process of the UK leaving the European Union. Once Article 50 is triggered it cannot be reversed.
23rd April: 1st Round of French Presidential Elections
Although the French President election is expected to have two rounds, the first round will provide some indication as to the leaning of the French public. A good showing for the anti-European Union party the National Front will again see the longer term outlook of the Euro / the European Union called into question.
7th May: 2nd Round of French Presidential Elections
Unless confirmed in the 1st Round (unexpected) the 2nd round will see the confirmation of the new French President.
7th – 8th July: G20 Summit
The annual G20 Summit brings together the heads of states and governments of major industrialised and emerging market economies. Held in Hamburg this year the agenda is 1) increasing the stability and resilience of global economies, 2) improving economic growth sustainability and 3) assuming responsibility in areas that affect global peace and security.
August 27th to October 22nd: German Federal Elections
German Federal elections must be called no earlier than August 27th and no later than October 22nd. All eyes will be on Europe’s largest economy to see if the rise of populism continues.
October / November: Chinese 19th Party Congress
In the second half of 2017 China will hold its 19th Party Congress; expectations are that it will happen in either October or November. In this closed door meeting, officials will appoint some of the country’s top leaders. Amongst others, 5 of the 7 places in China’s most powerful Politburo Standing Committee are up for grabs. Notably, China’s next successor is chosen from this committee and hence this is undoubtedly one of the most important events of the year.
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