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AIM Stocks Charting: Now The Top 3 Volume Leaders Daily GKP, RRL, XEL

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From this week AIM Stocks Charting will be providing a daily rundown of the top three volume stocks which in the case of May 1st means West African Minerals (LSE:WAFM) will appear with Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP) and Range Resources (LSE:RRL). I will throw in  number 4, Sirius Minerals (LSE:SXX) as well, as a special.

Yesterday’s rundown is included below, and as suggested Gulf Keystone’s bear flag blocked it at 145p – with the high of the day at 143.5p, with the close now down at 133p. You don’t get that kind of detail or precision anywhere else.

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Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP): Break Of “Final” 140p Zone Support

I would admit that as far as both Gulf Keystone and Xcite Energy discussed below are concerned we are looking at a recent sharp swing from being bullish to very bullish on these stocks, to having to beat a rather hasty retreat as more negative realities set in. In the case of Gulf Keystone it has been three factors: a failure below the 200 day moving average at the beginning of this month, the loss of the original 172p low of April,and then the break of December 161p floor – so far without any retest. Indeed, at this stage it looks as though the price action is capped at 145p. Below this, apart from the last 131p April low there is no meaningful chart support until 100p. If there is anything positive it is that the stock is deeply oversold – but as yet no bounce.

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Range Resources (LSE:RRL):

The big plus point for most of 2013 to date as far as Range Resources had been concerned is the way that the shares had spent most of the period at or above the initial January peak at 4p. Indeed, going into the end of March it really did appear that the shares had finally made a platform at the 4p zone. This should have then allowed for a retest of the post summer resistance zone towards 6p. Instead, the technical bull set up was scuppered by the all share merger offer for International Petroleum. The problem now is that even though the shares are oversold we could still see a decline towards the floor of a falling 2012 price channel towards 2p – the details of the Aussie deal notwithstanding.

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Xcite Energy (LSE:XEL): Triangle Breakdown Threat

Rather as in the way that Range Resources seemed to have delivered the perfect set up to start 2013, with the January peak broken in February and then becoming new support at 110p, we have seen how Xcite Energy first produced an extended stay above former resistance to entice the bulls, before finally losing 110p and hence abandoning the recovery argument. This retreat has all been seen just in the past 10 days – forcing us to go from ultra bullish to a stance which that is more in accordance with the caution associated with the aftermath of a bull trap. The problem is that markets can flip around and change character very quickly, leaving those wedded to the previous trend reluctant to change their views. This can prove to be very expensive, a point that has already been underlined with the loss of the 100p level for Xcite Energy. Indeed, a weekly close below this level would probably confirm the fact of an extended triangle formation break of the kind promoted by my good friend John Piper in his Trading Triangles book, which brought down the Pound at the start of the year. The risk for Xcite is that below 100p we shall see a breakdown here which delivers a fresh leg down for the shares as sharp as that seen two years ago. Well below 50p could be the end point on such a decline unless 110p is recovered before the end of May.

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