DiscoverGold
21 hours ago
Gold Bull Run Gains Momentum Amid Monthly Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | January 22, 2025
• With 2,763 high and monthly trend reversals, gold continues its bull run. A pullback may precede a breakout above the record 2,790 price level.
Gold’s bull trend continued Wednesday with a new short-term trend high of 2,763. The day looks likely to end in the green and strong, in the top third of the day’s trading range. It follows a monthly bullish trend reversal signal that triggered yesterday on a rally above the 2,726-daily swing high and monthly high from December.
Yesterday’s closing price was the fifth highest daily closing price historically and the highest close since the 2,790 high from late-October. These are signs of improving demand that could lead to a new record high breakout for gold.
Next Target – 2,772
Nonetheless, gold is fast approaching a higher risk zone that could lead to a retracement given the gains from the 2,582 low (C). It would be healthy for the advance to take a rest and pullback or consolidate in preparation for a breakout attempt above 2,790. The next target zone is derived from a rising ABCD pattern that reaches its first target at 2,772. At that high gold will be up by 194.3 points or 7.5% from the 2,582 low.
This would put the performance of the current upswing around the average of the prior five upswings. The relationship between swings shows price symmetry or similarity. In other words, the chance of hitting resistance that leads to a stall or pullback increases once a similar target distance is approached. Those numbers are approximate and may vary somewhat by price or percentage, depending on the swing.
Double Monthly Bull Breakouts
Tuesday’s rally triggered a breakout of an inside month on the monthly chart as December’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. Moreover, today’s advance took back the 2,762 monthly high from November. Each rise above a prior monthly high is further evidence supporting the bull trend. Having breakouts of two monthly highs in two days shows the strength of demand behind this rally. A daily close above 2,762 will provide further bullish evidence.
The stronger the demand the greater the chance that the long-term bull trend can continue to advance by exceeding the current record high of 2,790. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mean the trend goes straight there. That is why it is important to watch price behavior around key price levels to gauge degrees of supply and demand and potential significance of a price level or range.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold Monthly Breakout Eyes Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | January 21, 2025
• Gold surged above $2,726, confirming a bullish reversal and setting the stage to challenge $2,790, with extended targets pointing toward $2,846 and beyond.
Gold strengthened on Tuesday as it broke out above the 2,726-swing high from December 12 and advanced to a high of 2,746 before stalling. The advance triggered a bullish trend reversal as the December lower swing high was exceeded. Also, gold is on track to end today’s session above that price, at the time of this writing.
If it does so, that will be a stronger close than a close below 2,726. In addition, gold looks likely to end the day strong, in the top third of the day’s price range. Either way, today’s bullish price action sets the stage for gold to challenge the record high of 2,790 that was hit at the end of October. In addition to a swing high breakout, the 78.6% retracement at 2,734 was also breached during today’s rally.
Heading Towards 2,772
The next higher target from chart analysis looks to be around 2,772. That is the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple). At that price the two upswings in the pattern would match and generate a potential pivot. A pullback could follow or a breakout through that price zone if buyers remain in charge. Notice the acceleration in momentum as the angle of ascent for the near-term uptrend increases, along with today’s wide range green candle.
This reflects improving demand that may continue to improve. That could lead to an acceleration in the advance as market participants jump on board following the bullish reversal signal above a prior swing high.
Above Record High Points to 2,846
If gold can get above and stay above the record high of 2,790, it heads towards a target zone at 2,846, which is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern beginning from the February 2024 swing low of 1,984. It is quickly followed by the 227.2% extended target at 2,874 for a rising ABCD pattern that began from September 2022 low. It is also worth watching the rising trendline connecting the August swing low. In junction with other indicators, it can help provide guidance if approached.
Monthly Bullish Reversal Triggered
Finally, today’s bull breakout triggered a monthly reversal as last month’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. December was an inside month. Since the longer time frame takes precedence, a bull trend continuation signal was generated today, which increases the chance of gold reaching new record highs.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 18, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 279.4k, up 24.5k.
Gold has rallied the last three weeks, with this week adding 1.2 percent to $2,749/ounce. This brings the metal to an important juncture, as $2,750s has seen a genuine bull-bear duel the past three months. Last October, gold did proceed to rally past this level and tag $2,802 – a record – on the 30th, but only to then soon lose momentum. By November 14, gold was down to $2,542, before rallying. A rising trendline from that low extends to $2,640s, which is the line in the sand should gold bugs fail to reclaim $2,750s and the yellow metal comes under pressure. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27592. Therefore, this closed lower and it was holding still for the close.
Up to now, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 27890.
Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 26749. Initial support lies at 27087. This market has exceeded intraday 1 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 27410 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Up to now, the projected extreme resistance stands at 27709 and 28173.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26689 settling at 27509. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 27168 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 27281. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27292 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 26669 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 27168
Previous... 26689
Tomorrow... 27281
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 27613. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27350 and overhead resistance forming above at 27613. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 6.257%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Holds Gains Amid Consolidation, Testing Key Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | January 14, 2025
• Despite recent pullback, gold maintains a rising trend, supported by strong demand, key MAs, and potential breakout above swing high resistance at 2,698.
Gold pulled back on Friday after reaching a swing high at 2,698. Resistance was seen following that high, which occurred after a bull breakout above a trendline and the completion of a 78.6% retracement. Despite Monday’s potential bearish reversal day and a weak close, gold held above Monday’s low of 2,657 on Tuesday and consolidated in a relatively narrow range. The high was 2,675 and the low 2,659, at the time of this writing.
Consolidation Day
Since sellers did not retain control today, there is no follow through to Monday’s selling. Overall, price action remains near the highs of a rising trend and testing resistance around a trendline. Until there is bearish follow through the potential for an upside breakout remains. Although a rise above today’s high may show strength, it may not signal enough demand to take gold higher. That should be clearer on a rise above Monday’s high at 2,698, and further still above the swing high at 2,698.
Above 2,698 Shows Strength
If gold is to make a bull breakout attempt above the 2,698-swing high, then a deeper pullback first may assist in strengthening demand around key support levels. Both the 50-Day MA at 2,645 and the 20-Day MA at 2,637 identify possible support. And, although a decline below the lower 20-Day line would be bearish, that would really depend on what happens next around the small uptrend line. That line also represents possible support levels and can be used as a guide for identifying signs of strength or weakness.
Weekly Bullish Sentiment
Bullish patterns in the weekly chart (not shown) support an eventual resolution to the upside for gold. Last week’s advance triggered a breakout to a four-week high. The week ended strong, with gold ending near the highs of the week’s trading range and at a seven-week weekly closing high. Moreover, last week’s strength followed a successful test of support around the 20-Week MA over several weeks.
It shows strong underlying demand for gold and retention of the rising trend beginning from October 2023. That was when the 20-Week MA was last reclaimed. In general, once price is rejected to the upside from the price zone of the 20-Week MA there is an increased chance for a decisive advance. Similar behavior was seen following the February 2024 swing low and August 2024 swing low, as well as the November swing low.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
$GLD Market Movers...
By: TrendSpider | January 12, 2025
• Gold surged higher Friday, breaking out from a triangle pattern supported by a sizeable volume shelf, the 50-day SMA, and a bullish MACD cross. While Bitcoin has slipped -1.8% in 2025, gold has climbed 1.6%, supported by tightening global supply, rising reserves in China and Russia, and expectations of slower U.S. rate cuts, keeping inflation concerns elevated.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 11, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27150 and is trading up about 2.80% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26810.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 5.325%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold On Track for Highest Weekly Close in Seven Weeks
By: Bruce Powers | January 10, 2025
• Gold's advance toward a trend high of 2,698 highlights bullish sentiment, with short-term support and weekly strength suggesting potential for further upward movement.
Gold busted above a short trendline on Friday to reach a high for the day and new high for that trend at 2,698. The advance completed a 78.6% retracement at 2,695, which is just above the trendline. Now, the question is whether gold can continue to strengthen to a new trend high or whether selling pressure stops the ascent and turns gold back down for either a retracement or consolidation.
Trendline Breakout
It looks like the trendline is being recognized by the market as gold is currently set to close at or near resistance at the line. That is the top boundary line for a declining trend channel. Although today’s high was above the line, the trend needs further signs of strength to indicate it might go higher in the short term. A subsequent breakout above 2,698 will not only signal a continuation of the near-term trend, but also provide a second breakout signal from the falling channel.
Bullish Weekly Pattern
The long-term weekly chart (not shown) is bullish as gold broke out to a three-week high this week and is set to have its highest weekly closing price in seven weeks. In addition, the week is set to end strong, with gold likely closing in the top third of the week’s price range. This is a sign of strength that could be a precursor to continued strengthening.
Reaches Key Pivot Area at Top of Channel
Today’s low of 2,661 is short-term support, while the 50-Day MA is at 2,649 and the 20-Day MA sits at 2,637. Potential support around the recent interim swing low of 2,615 has significance as it is a higher swing low. But it is not as significant as support at the swing low of 2,596 from late last year, given its location in the price pattern. Since the 2,615-swing low gold has risen for four days.
However, the previous rally from the November swing low at 2,537 peaked after five days. It remains possible that time symmetry will be seen with the current advance hitting another new high for the trend before stalling. That would complete a series of five consecutive days of higher daily highs and higher lows.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Bullish Momentum Builds
By: Bruce Powers | January 7, 2025
• Gold's breakout above Monday's high hints at a bullish continuation, with resistance at 2,665 in site and potential for further gains if 50-Day MA can be reclaimed.
Gold triggered a minor daily bullish reversal on Tuesday as it broke out above Monday’s high and rose to the day’s high of 2,664 before encountering resistance. A daily close above Monday’s high of 2,649 would confirm strength indicated by the breakout. Although gold showed strength today by rising above the 50-Day MA for the second time in three days, it was unable to reach the recent minor trend high at 2,665, also last week’s high. The 50-Day line is currently at 2,654.
Where gold ends the day will be telling as it has a chance to close above the 50-Day MA. If it can do so, which it has failed to do since December 12, it has a chance to go higher. Particularly since the 50-Day line has marked a resistance area the past few days.
Strength Returns
A higher daily high and higher low will complete today and put gold in a position to continue to advance a small rising counter trend that began from the December swing low. It is interesting to note that prior dynamic resistance (dotted line) indicated by the internal declining trendline was successfully tested as support yesterday.
The low for the day was close to it before buyers took back control and the price of gold strengthened. That is a bullish sign given that the line was previously resistance. Next, a rally above the 2,637 high would be needed to signal a bullish continuation of the trend. Potential resistance would then be around the top trend line of a declining channel.
Bearish Below 2,633
Weakness would be indicated with a drop below today’s low of 2,633. If that occurs, then Monday’s low of 2,615 may be retested as support. And that would also put the 2,615 low at risk of failure. Key support would then be around an internal uptrend line, which is estimated at 2,604 today.
Downward Pressure from Declining Channel
Since gold is strengthening within a larger declining bearish trend channel, it is anticipated to continue to rise and test potential resistance around the top of the channel. The 78.6% retracement at 2,695 can also be used as a guide. Until there is a new lower swing high, the downtrend price structure is retained due to the lower swing high of 2,726 from December 12.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 4, 2025
Next Monday is Martin Luther King, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 26547 and is trading up about 0.51% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26546 and overhead resistance forming above at 26758. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 3.246%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26497. Additional support is to be found at 26053. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26361.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Targets Higher Resistance After Weekly Reversal Signals Strength
By: Bruce Powers | January 3, 2025
• Gold tests $2,665 resistance, with a weekly close suggesting strength as buyers regain control following a failed weekly breakdown earlier this week.
Gold tested resistance around the 50-Day MA again on Friday, following yesterday’s touch, with today’s high reaching 2,665. Subsequently, it pulled back to test support around the 20-Day MA, which is currently at 2,639. Gold continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and looks likely to close near the lows as well.
Nonetheless, it is on track to end the week at its highest weekly closing price in three weeks. Moreover, it looks like it will also close above its 50-Week MA after closing below it last week for the first time since it was reclaimed in October 2023.
Weekly Chart Shows Strength
The longer time frame weekly chart (not shown) shows greater strength than what can be seen in the daily chart. A breakdown from an inside week pattern earlier this week subsequently reversed to the upside and rose above last week’s high of 2,639. A new sign of strength will be indicated if gold can close this week above that high.
Regardless, this week’s price action shows the sellers in control earlier in the week and flip to buyers being in control. In other words, a failed weekly breakdown occurred. A failed breakdown has the potential to lead to accelerated moves in the opposite direction of the initial trigger. That would be up for gold. Regardless, a signal is needed for signs of additional strengthening.
Rally Above 2,665 is Bullish
This week’s high, and a short-term uptrend high was 2,665. A rally above it will trigger both a trend continuation and a breakout above a weekly candle. Notice that today’s high slightly exceeded the weekly high from two weeks at 2,664. That was another sign of strength. Regardless, a decisive rise above 2,665 triggers a three-week breakout and will put gold in a good position to potential eventually test resistance around the December monthly high of 2,726.
Drop Below 2,625 Might Lead to Lower Prices
On the downside, Thursday’s support at the day’s low of 2,625 coincides with two recent daily highs and the top of an internal downtrend line (dots). Subsequently, the small uptrend line connecting the recent swing low at 2,582 marks potential support, as well as the recent interim swing low at 2,596. A decisive decline below 2,596 is a danger sign for the bulls as it shows the short-term uptrend faltering.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Tests Trendline Resistance Amidst Bearish Channel Pressures
By: Bruce Powers | January 1, 2025
• Gold tests resistance at the declining trendline, but bearish pressures persist as the downtrend remains intact without a clear breakout above key levels.
Despite last Monday’s drop to a five-day low, gold rallied on Tuesday, the last trading day of the year, to again test resistance around a declining trendline (dotted). It has been testing resistance around that trendline for four days now, beginning last Thursday. Today’s high was 2,627 at the time of this writing, which is slightly below yesterday’s high of 2,628.
If gold fails to rise above the 2,628 daily high today, a developing series of lower daily highs will be sustained. Currently, gold continues to trade near the highs of the day and may rise above Monday’s high before the close of the trading session. That would provide a minor sign of strength that could be an early clue to a possible rise above the trend line. Further, a daily close above yesterday’s high would be a strong indication.
Short-term Strength in Counter-trend Rally
Nonetheless, the trendline coincides closely with the 20-Day MA that was indicated as resistance at the recent minor swing high of 2,639 from last Thursday. It is now at 2,639, which is a sign of strength that would suggest strength, as a rise above that high as gold would have also reclaimed the 20-Day line by then. However, this would be a counter trend rally within a down trending channel. The channel represents downward pressure on the price of gold. A rally above the minor swing high puts gold in a position to test potential resistance around the 50-Day MA at 2,661, followed by the line at the top of the channel.
Weekly Chart Points
Price levels on the weekly chart (not shown) are also worth considering. Last week gold closed below its 20-Week MA for the first time since early-October 2023. And it may do so again this week. But the potential bearish implications of a weakening weekly closing price will change if gold can get above and stay above the 2,639-swing high as it is also a weekly high. So, a breakout above it will trigger a bullish reversal on the weekly time frame. Might that indicate improving demand that could sustain a breakout through the top trendline and then possibly follow with a rise above the December 12 swing high at 2,726?
Bearish Below 2,596
Given the current near-term patterns, a drop below Monday’s low of 2,596 is bearish and could lead to a continuation of the falling trend with a drop below the minor 2.58 swing low. The possibility of an eventual test of support around the 200-Day MA, now at 2,486, would then increase.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Look Sideways Overall
By: Christopher Lewis | December 31, 2024
• The gold market has done very little in the past few days, and I think this will continue to be important. This market will continue to pay close attention to the interest rate markets, which have been working against gold.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market bounced a bit in the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of buyers on dips. That being said, I don’t read too much into it because after all, it was New Year’s Eve and volume has been dropping. The $2,600 level is an area that has been important more than once. So, I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we are bouncing from there. Not only that, but to the uptrend line, of course, shows signs of strength as well.
The 50 day EMA sits just above and that is squeezing to the downside. But I don’t think that inertia is building up, at least not right now. I think this is more or less people squaring up positions heading into the new year holiday again. So much like last week when we were discussing Christmas, now we’re discussing another off day. Traders will have to bring profits home for accounting purposes. Money managers will have to bring profits home for clients, that type of thing.
So, I don’t read much into this, but if we were to close above $2,650, then I would take the uptrend back into account and an attempt to get to $2,715 level as a very real possibility. If we were to break down below $2,575, then I think you have a little bit deeper of a correction. Keep in mind though, that interest rates are higher than they in theory should be. And that has been working against gold for a while. All things being equal, when I look at this, I don’t want to short this market. I think it’s probably more back and forth than anything else from here.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
BottomBounce
3 weeks ago
Silver is expected to face a supply deficit in 2025, with demand outpacing supply:
Supply deficit
The global supply of silver has not increased significantly since 2014, while demand has steadily risen. The Silver Institute projects a 1% decline in supply in 2024.
Demand
Silver is critical for the tech industry, with its high electrical conductivity and reflectivity making it essential for AI systems and data centers. The clean energy revolution is also driving demand for silver.
Economic and geopolitical factors
A recession could create headwinds for silver, as industrial demand could decrease. Geopolitical instability could also stymie silver's upward momentum.
Technological advances
Technological advances could reduce or eliminate the need for certain industries to use silver. For example, changes to the way solar panels are made could eliminate their need for silver. $GLD
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 28, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26319 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26358 and support forming below at 26242. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 2.272%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Hits Five-Day High with Resistance at 20-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | December 26, 2024
• As gold approaches key resistance levels, including the 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages, traders watch for a potential breakout. The December swing high remains crucial for confirming a trend reversal.
Gold advanced to a five-day high of 2,639 on Thursday and it is on track to close the day at its highest price during that period. This is a sign of short-term strength that included a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,642. Although the initial downtrend line (blue dots) was breached briefly, the 20-Day MA is usually going to provide a more useful dynamic resistance line as it is calculated.
There have been several days since the drop below the 20-Day line on December 13 that it shows as resistance. Therefore, the 20-Day line can be anticipated to continue as a line of resistance until there is a decisive reclaim of the line.
Faces Key Near-Term Pivot
Also, a key point to consider is that the significance of the near-term downtrend line may have diminished since the recent swing high on December 12 was established. A new downtrend line connects that high from the peak and with a new parallel line across the bottom of the channel.
The fact that the downtrend line and the 20-Day line identify a similar price area could lead to a spike if the 20-Day line is reclaimed. When two different indicators show a similar price level the breakout through the pivot can sometimes show a higher level of interest and enthusiasm than at other times.
Falling Channel Shows Downward Pressure
The new falling trend channel may lower the potential significance of a breakout above the 20-Day line. Also, the same would be true on a reclaim of the 50-Day MA, a little higher at 2,666. This is because the new top downtrend line represents potential resistance. It adds to the significance of the December swing high (C) as it is a lower swing high and part of the developing downtrend price structure. The current situation is that the potential for a bearish continuation of the falling channel remains until there is a rise above the December swing high.
Reclaim of 2,664 Weekly High Could Improve Sentiment
Another key upside price level to be aware of is last week’s high of 2,664. Notice it is very close to the 50-Day MA. Since last week ended with a lower weekly high and lower weekly (not shown) low a sustained rise above resistance from last week would begin to improve the bullish sentiment in gold as it would negate last week’s bearish signal on the weekly time frame.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Bearish Patterns Dominate
By: Bruce Powers | December 24, 2024
• Bearish momentum dominates gold's price action, with resistance at key moving averages and potential downside targets extending to the 2,474 zone.
For the past several days gold has been consolidating as it attempted to strengthen into the 20-Day MA to test it as resistance. It has not been too successful so far, having reached a high of 2,633, which was established on Monday. Since last week’s swing low of 2,582 gold established three minor higher daily highs but remained within the price range from last Wednesday, which often leads to consolidation. An inside day looks likely for today, Tuesday. Resistance has been seen around the small rising trendline drawn from the November 26 swing low.
Bear Trend Dominates
Unless there are clear bullish signs soon, gold is expected to turn back down once it is done testing resistance. It established a lower swing high on December 12 (C), which put it in a position to trace out a falling ABCD pattern (purple) inside a declining parallel channel. Two weeks ago, gold completed a weekly bearish shooting star candlestick pattern that triggered to the downside last week. Moreover, the bearish weekly signal was confirmed by last week’s close below the prior bearish week. This week, gold is set to trade inside week and looks likely to end that way as volatility diminishes during the holiday season.
20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages Hold Clues
Trend resistance is indicated by the convergence of the top downtrend line and 20-Day MA with the 20-Day line currently at 2,643. A little higher is the 50-Day MA trend indicator at 2,667. A sustained rise and daily close would be needed above the 50-Day line before the outlook starts to turn more bullish. Of course, a sustained rise above the 20-Day line would provide an earlier sign of strengthening.
A new top trendline has been added to the chart in red, starting from the October peak (A) and connecting the recent swing high (C). It establishes a possible new angle of descent for the declining channel and a dynamic resistance line, but only if gold rises above the 50-Day MA. Until then, downward pressure remains. Nevertheless, if gold can get above and stay above the 20-Day MA, the prospect of eventually testing lower support levels before the correction is over decreases.
Drop Below 2,582 is Bearish
If gold falls below the recent swing low of 2,582, which essentially successfully tested support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a minor upswing, then a test of support around 2,532 becomes likely. And if that price area fails to sustain support, gold may dip to the 2,477-target zone that includes the 61.8% retracement at 2,473 and the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2,474.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 22, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 262k, down 13.5k.
Last week, gold added 0.6 percent but left a large upper wick; a lower high of $2,761 was formed versus a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30. The downward momentum continued this week, as the metal dropped 1.2 percent to $2,645/ounce. Gold bugs at the same time can take solace in the fact that buying interest showed up at the nearest support.
On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s. These levels can now provide support. In the last three sessions this week, bids were waiting around $2,600.
The metal can rally. If the 50-day at $2,684 is recaptured, trendline resistance from the October high lies at $2,750.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 21, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26451 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26461 and support forming below at 25858. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 26497. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26053. Additional support is to be found at 25415. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Targeting Rise to 20-Day Moving Average at 2,644
By: Bruce Powers | December 20, 2024
• Gold’s breakout above 2,626 sets the stage for test of resistance at 20-Day MA, with downside risks extending to 2,473 if bearish momentum persists.
Gold bounced on Friday to reach a high of 2,632. That put it slightly above yesterday’s high of 2,626. And it is on track to close in a strong position, in the top third of the day’s price range. That would put it in a position to test resistance around the 20-Day MA, at 2,644 currently, along with a downtrend line. Since the two lines have recently converged, they represent a potentially more significant pivot level than either alone.
Test of Prior Trend Support as Resistance
Notice that from Monday to Wednesday this week the lines were around resistance at the highs of the day. Therefore, if the bear trigger from Wednesday is to follow-through to the downside, it is possible that gold could see resistance around the 20-Day MA and then turn back down.
Lower target levels below this week’s low begin with the 78.6% retracement at 2,576, not much below this week. However, if lower prices continue the recent swing low at 2,537 may be tested as support. Looking at the developing descending trend channel, it shows an increased risk that the 2,537-price level could be busted to the downside. That would put a price zone around 2,475 to 2,473 as the next target zone below 2,537.
Bearish Persistence Could Lead to 2,575 Eventually
There are several indications pointing to that price zone. A declining ABCD pattern (purple) reaches an initial downside target at 2,475. That is where there is symmetry in price between the two legs down and therefore it could be pivot level. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 2,473. Further, the price zone was shown as both support and resistance earlier in the year, starting from the July swing high.
Rise Above 2,664 Weekly High Changes Sentiment
Despite the potential for a bearish continuation, the outlook might start to change if there is a rally above this week’s high of 2,664. That would put gold back above the 20-Day MA and trendline. It is interesting to notice that on the weekly chart (not shown) gold fell below the 20-Week MA this week but is on track to close today above it. This means that the 20-Week MA is again showing support, which is bullish on the larger time frame. Nonetheless, price action and patterns will provide clues.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Has a Volatile Week
By: Christopher Lewis | December 20, 2024
• Gold has been volatile this week, as the Federal Reserve press conference had traders dumping anything and everything as they tried to figure out if the Fed knows what it is doing next year. Ultimately, you also have to keep in mind that this time of year can get thin as well.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market initially fell rather rapidly during the middle part of the week to reach the 2,580 level or so but on Friday saw a massive shot higher to do quite a bit of recovering. A lot of this can be laid directly at the feet of Jerome Powell who had a horrible press conference which had people concerned about whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to have to start tightening again or maybe just not cutting at all in 2025. With the interest rate market going crazy and the US dollar, of course strengthening quite drastically, that obviously had a knock on effect on gold.
At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to set up some type of consolidation area, as seen by the shooting star of the previous weekend, the now what looks to be a hammer from this past week. So, this to me looks a lot like a market that is probably going to go sideways for a while. That makes quite a bit of sense considering that the holidays are here and that has a major influence on liquidity, so therefore I think that you are more likely than not going to see a market that goes sideways and just looks for some type of directionality at least until we get through the new year holiday. With that, I remain somewhat bullish, but I’m more neutral at least in the short term.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Bearish Correction Deepens
By: Bruce Powers | December 19, 2024
• A sharp selloff sends gold lower, with bearish signals pointing to further declines as Fibonacci retracements and trend channels suggest downside potential remains.
Gold fell to a slightly lower low of 2,582 on Thursday, which followed Wednesday’s sharp decline. During yesterday’s selloff a prior interim swing low at 2,605 was busted and the bearish implications confirmed by a daily close well below that price level at 2,585. At the time of this writing, gold is trading relatively weak, in the lower half of the day’s price range. And it may end the day in a weak position, below the halfway point for the range.
Lower Target Beckon
There are several indications that gold could fall further before the correction is complete. For one, it attempted a bull breakout of a descending parallel trend channel on December 10 but quickly faltered, leading to a drop back below the top channel line.
A failed pattern has the potential to reverse sharply in the opposite direction. That may be what is happening now with gold. Since a bearish reversal occurred from the top of the channel, the bottom of the channel is an eventual possible target. This doesn’t mean that it will be reached, but it does indicate that the sellers could be in charge for a while longer.
Bearish Indications
Notice that as gold declined from the 2,726-swing high (C) it dropped back below the 20-Day MA (purple). Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday the high of the day tested the 20-Day line as resistance. It found resistance as price was rejected to the downside from the area around the 20-Day MA. This shows prior support being confirmed as resistance, and it is bearish behavior. Bearish sentiment was then confirmed today with an advance to test resistance around the bottom of a small rising trendline starting from the 2,605-swing low.
Next Target 78.6% Retracement at 2,576
The next lower potential support level is around the 78.6% retracement at 2,576. However, as noted above, if the trend channel remains valid the most recent swing low at 2,537 (B) could easily be tested once again. If that price zone fails to stop the descent, then the next lower price zone around 2,473 becomes a target. That price level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the upswing that began from the May swing low. It also includes the target for a falling ABCD pattern at 2,475.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Slides Below Key Support as Bearish Signals Intensify
By: Bruce Powers | December 18, 2024
• Gold dropped to 2,587 Wednesday as bearish signals emerged, with the Fed's rate cut fueling declines and support levels at 2,537 and 2,473 in focus.
Gold fell sharply on Wednesday following the U.S. Federal Reserves decision to lower interest rates by a quarter point with fewer reductions expected in 2025 than was previously estimated. The decline took gold below the recent interim swing low of 2,605 to a low for the day of 2,587, at the time of this writing. That is a bearish signal that will likely lead to lower prices for gold.
The 2,605-swing low established a higher swing low and set up the potential for a bullish continuation above the 2,721-swing high on November 25. An attempt to break out above the 2,721 level was subsequently attempted on December 12 with a slightly new high of 2,726. Sellers quickly took back control from there however, leading to today’s descent.
Close Below 2,605 Confirms Bearish Signal
A daily close below the 2,605-support level will confirm today’s bearish signal and put gold on track to test lower support levels before the correction is complete. Notice the parallel declining trend channel on the chart. There was an attempted breakout recently above the top channel line, but it failed after a couple days as gold fell back below the line last Friday.
Also, recent attempts to reclaim the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs have failed. Resistance was seen yesterday around the 20-Day line after gold traded above it for six days prior, and the 20-Day line fell below the 50-Day line on November 26, and it has not gotten back above it. These are all bearish signs that now take on greater meaning.
Decline May Test Support Around 2,537 Swing Low
It looks like there is a good chance that the 2,537-swing low will be retested as support and certainly lower prices may be hit as well. In general, once price is rejected on one side of a channel and begins to move in the other direction, an eventual hit of the opposite trendline is possible. The weekly chart held the clue for this drop as today triggered a bearish weekly shooting star candlestick pattern from last week. And it represents a failure of the earlier bull breakout noted above. Failed pattern can lead to sharp moves.
Lower Potential Support Zone Around 2,473
Below 2,537 is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,473 that looks to mark the next lower potential support level for gold. A falling ABCD pattern also completes close to that price level at 2,475. It would also be a good idea to watch for signs of support around the next lower trendlines, which is around the Fibonacci retracement level.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 14, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 275.6k, up 15.9k.
Gold rallied hard in the first three sessions, tagging $2,760 by Wednesday, but only to then unravel to finish the week up only 0.6 percent to $2,676/ounce. As a result, the weekly left a rather large upper wick. Seven weeks ago, when the metal reached a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30, a gravestone doji formed on the weekly. This week’s candle has a similar look to it.
More selling pressure likely lies ahead. On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Bearish Formation Threatens Gold's Advance
By: Carl Swenlin | December 13, 2024
After the November pullback, GLD began to rally again. This week, on Wednesday, price exceeded the nearest November top, which made official the new rising trend from the November low. Brief celebration ends the following day as GLD tops, setting the top boundary for a bearish rising wedge formation. Rising wedges are bearish because they normally resolve downward.
GLD has rallied +40% since the February low, so it is entitled to take a break.
The weekly chart shows the root of the problem, which is the parabolic advance (+71%) from the 2022 low. Parabolic advances beg for correction, which can sometimes be severe. In the case of GLD, we do not expect more than a sideways digestion process to dampen the angle of ascent.
The monthly chart emphasizes the steepness of the advance to all-time highs, and the need for some digestion or correction. Should gold pull back, two support levels are apparent: 2450 and 2085. We think the second level is unlikely because sentiment is still too bearish.
Conclusion: Gold has had a very profitable rally since the 2022 low, and it would be beneficial for it to take a break with either a pullback or consolidation. It appears that that process has begun.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 14, 2024
The NY Gold Futures closing today at 26758 is immediately trading down about 0.37% for the year from last year's settlement of 26858. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26679 and overhead resistance forming above at 26807. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 8.648%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25685. Additional support is to be found at 26503. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Bullish Signals Drive Gold Higher, Eyeing Trend Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | December 11, 2024
• Gold rallies to 2,721, testing resistance as bullish momentum builds, signaling potential for a sharp advance toward the 2,790-price target within an ABCD pattern.
Gold continued to strengthen on Wednesday as it rallied above Tuesday’s high to test resistance around the 2,721 November swing high. At the time of this writing, gold had reached a high of 2,721 for the day and it continues to trade near the top of the range. Therefore, it could reach a new high before the end of the day. The advance followed a successful test of support to the top of the down trendline that was exceeded yesterday.
Bullish Momentum Improves
Given the bullish behavior in the price of gold following last Friday’s swing low of 2,614 it is starting to look like the correction is over the uptrend can continue. Of course, additional bullish follow-through is needed to show sustainability of the advance. Today is the third day of gains since Friday and the rally has stopped at an obvious possible resistance zone.
However, it indicates a key pivot that will trigger a bullish continuation is triggered and held. Also, the possibility of a quick rally above the high followed a quick reversal back down should be considered. Particularly, since upward momentum began from the intraday bullish reversal last Friday.
Weekly Chart Confirms Upward Bias
The longer time frame weekly chart (not shown) is confirming bullish signals. An upside breakout was triggered on Monday as gold rose above the inside week pattern high at 2,657 from last week. Given the subsequent bullish reaction it looks like the market has recognized that breakout. Gold is currently on track to close strong with the week, especially if it can reclaim the swing high (B).
A daily close above that high would confirm that continuation of a developing rising ABCD pattern (green). Once the 2,721 (B) point is exceeded a bullish continuation of the pattern will be signaled. An initial upside target from the pattern is at 2,790 (D). That is right at the current trend high.
It took a little while, but now that gold’s momentum is improving along with technical bullish signals, it has the potential to see a sharp advance like what was seen in the initial leg up off the bottom in November. Next, let’s see where it ends the week and how that changes the patterns and adds clues.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Momentum Builds as Gold Surpasses Key Resistance Levels
By: Bruce Powers | December 10, 2024
• Gold rallies to test key resistance levels, supported by a bullish reversal and a breakout above the 50-Day MA, signaling potential upside continuation.
Gold spiked higher on Tuesday to reach a daily high of 2,695. So far, that is a test of resistance around the internal trendline. However, gold is set to close strong, near the highs of the day, which is where it is currently trading. Before it does it may reach a new high for the day. The advance showed strength as it exceeded potential resistance at the 50-Day MA, now at 2,669, and gold will likely close above that line. Today’s strength followed a bullish reversal of a failed breakdown of a bear flag pattern last Friday.
Follow-through will be a Key Indicator
Follow-through from here will be key. There is upside potential if today’s high is exceeded as it should be gold back above the trendline and further confirm a failure of the bear flag. A top purple parallel line is shown on the chart for the top of the flag. Although a sustained advance above the trendline would indicate strength, a rally above the recent swing high at 2,721 would be needed to trigger a bullish reversal of recent bearish correction.
Bullish Momentum Kicks In
Today’s bullish momentum follows a breakout of an inside week pattern that triggered on a move above 2,657 yesterday. A bullish reversal on the weekly chart would support the possibility that gold can continue to strengthen in the near-term. The 2,721-swing high is a five-week high. It seems likely that if upside momentum is sustained above today’s high, gold has a shot at testing and therefore possibly exceeding that swing high. It is worth noting that today’s advance also exceeded the 2,686-swing high from September. That provides another clue that the buyers are starting to get more aggressive.
Pullback Could Find Support at 50-Day Line
Nevertheless, further consolidation leading to greater market uncertainty could also occur. As noted, additional signs of strength will be needed if gold is to have a chance of reaching the most recent swing high. A pullback from today’s high could see support around the 50-Day MA. How gold behaves around the 50-Day line should provide clues as to strength or weakness. That line can be watched along with the recent minor swing high of 2,666.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 7, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 259.7k, up 9.4k.
Gold bugs were repelled at the 50-day ($2,681) for six successive sessions including the first four this week. They lost the average on November 11 and have since closed above it only once.
Earlier on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
On November 14, the metal ticked $2,542 intraday and reversed higher. The rally since has now stalled at the 50-day. This week, it lost 0.8 percent to $2,660/ounce. The longer it takes to reclaim the average, which is now flat to slightly falling, the higher the odds of continued downside pressure. There is support at $2,610s immediately ahead.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 7, 2024
At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 26596. As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 26784 and support forming below at 26566. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 5.528%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25415. Resistance is to be found starting at 27369. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 months ago
Gold Bear Flag Pattern Signals Potential Bearish Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | December 4, 2024
• Resistance at $2,666 and 50-Day MA challenges gold’s recovery, while bearish continuation may lead to drop below November’s swing low.
Gold has formed a developing bear flag pattern (purple) since a 2,605-swing low was established a week ago Tuesday. Notice that the pattern has encountered both the 50-Day MA (orange), now at 2,669, and the 20-Day MA (purple) at 2,635, as it developed.
Today, support was seen at 2,632, around the convergence of the lower rising parallel line of the flag formation. Given the sharp selloff following a lower swing high of 2,721 (C) last week, the expectation is for an eventual bearish continuation. Once the top of the flag is determined by a flag breakdown, a potential target can be assessed.
50-Day MA Resistance
The area to watch for potential resistance is around the 50-Day MA as a daily close above it would be a sign of strength. Since the line was successfully tested as resistance last Friday with the high of 2,666, it may again represent resistance. Also, it has the potential of being the top of the flag, as does the 2,666 high. Currently, within the flag there is a higher daily swing low at 2,622 and therefore a decline below that price level would be bearish. Earlier indications of weakness may be noticed around the lower parallel line or the 20-Day MA.
Lower Swing High Followed by Bearish Behavior
Since last week’s swing high established a lower swing high, there is the potential for a bearish continuation of a developing ABCD pattern (orange). If the bear flag triggers, the possibility of reaching lower targets will increase. The prior swing low of 2,537 combines with the 50% retracement level at 2,534. Further down is a potential support range from 2,4873 to 2,470, consisting of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the target from a falling ABCD pattern, respectively.
200-Day MA Down at 2,441
The long-term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, is a little lower at 2,441. That moving average is important for the long-term gold trend. Notice that the line was reclaimed in mid-October 2023. There were then several tests of the line as support and price reversed to the upside each time. However, the current decline presents the possibility of another test of the 200-Day line as support following a strong advance and movement up and away from the line. Given the above bearish short-term implications, the possibility of gold eventually testing support around the 200-Day line needs to be considered.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
