Professor Glen Arnold

Howard Marks, a very thoughtful investor (which have made him a couple of billion dollars) has recently commented on the crisis and recovery. I have collected what I believe to be the most salient points. Will the market dip again? “Markets rarely rally in a straight line. Rather, their movements represent a continuous tug-of-war between the […]

Howard Marks is a billionaire American investor with a reputation for insightful analysis of markets and economies. He is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide. He wrote the well-received investment book, The Most Important Thing, Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor. For this newsletter I have collected...

Capital Economics, a highly respected organisation supplying immediate and highly relevant economic analysis, has gathered some interesting data on the economic and the potential recession facing us.  We investors need to make a judgement on likely future scenarios for various industrial sectors and so we must consider the macroeconomic environment impacting those sectors. Whilst the […]

Smith News, freed from the shackle of Tuffnells, has a lot going for it. But there is a risk that it runs out of money before shareholders benefit from the simplified and focused company. The Group has £175m committed bank facility available until 31 January 2021, of which £68m is current unused, implying that around […]

Last week Connect Group (LSE:CNCT) announced the sale of its Tuffnells division. At first, investors greeted the news with enthusiasm, pushing Connect’s shares up 50%. But the following day they were back down where they started because the details of the deal revealed that Connect wasn’t getting much out of it other than removing Tuffnells’ […]

Professor Carmen Reinhart, Harvard, an expert on macroeconomics and international finance found popular fame with her book co-authored by Kenneth Rogoff, This Times It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, which examined the striking similarities of booms and busts through history. She helps us understand financial crisis, drawing on her studies of so many of […]

Professor Robert Shiller, a renowned student of behavioural finance, was awarded a Nobel Prize in economics in 2013. He recently wrote an interesting piece for the Project Syndicate group entitled “The Two Pandemics” He is most interested in the less obvious pandemic that is starting to sweep across nations – it is “a pandemic of […]

On Tuesday, the organisation charged with keeping an eye on UK government spending, and the economy more widely, published its ideas on where we might be headed. The economists at OBR assume a three-month lockdown due followed by another three-month period when restrictions are partially lifted (so that the economic impact is halved in Q3). […]

On Tuesday the International Monetary Fund peered into the future, providing its informed guesses on what is going to happen to our economies (World Economic Outlook).  It does not paint rosy pictures. (BTW: I’ve gone even more into cash with the sale of my shares in the industrial and office property company J Smart) Far […]

In today’s Financial Times Mohamed El-Erian agues that there is far too much optimism regarding the effect of the coronavirus on both western economies and financial markets. He points at the talked about V-shaped recovery, in which the first quarter of the year is down but there is a quick recovery April-July, which is now […]