Professor Glen Arnold

As far as I’m concerned the stock market does not exist. It is there only as a reference to see if anyone is doing anything foolish Warren Buffett It is optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer. Warren Buffett  (B.H. 1990) If we can buy small pieces with satisfactory underlying economics at a […]

Benjamin Graham ran a fund with assets under management of £2.5m in 1929. The crash wiped out most of that.  In the Depression he pondered the meaning of “investing” as opposed to “speculation” and wrote the very influential Security Analysis book. Warren Buffett became his student in 1950. After regaining his investors’ money, between 1936 […]

While value investors wait for the dust to settle we might want to ponder the thoughts of some experienced investors on market ups and downs. By dust to settle I mean understanding the new economic/business environment we are in.  There are new rules on government help, disturbed demand patterns, interrupted supply chains, psychological trauma. No […]

Great investors have seen many bad markets. And they learned from them: In certain years you’ll make your 30 percent, but there will be other years when you’ll only make 2 percent, or perhaps you’ll lose 20  That’s part of the scheme of things, and you have to accept it….If you expect to make 30 […]

I thought it might be useful to put the current downward moves in the market in some perspective, so I’ve looked up what happened to Berkshire Hathaway when its shares fell significantly and then rose again: How far did it fall and how long did it take to recover? I’ve also obtained data on the FTSE […]

I’ve sold all my shares in Northamber (LSE:NAR) at 57.2p making a modest profit over the three month holding period (they were purchased at 50.4p – so only a 13.5% return). The primary motive was to add to a cash war chest, ready for purchasing value shares when the crisis reaches its height. But there […]

We cannot be sure about any thoughts/projections on how the changes hitting economies and businesses will play out in a world awash with fear about Covid-19 – there are just too many uncertainties. However, we can look at the words of well-informed and experienced people who might flag-up potential scenarios and probabilities. With that in mind, […]

I bought shares in TClarke (LSE:CTO) in November 2015 at 79.16p, since when they have paid 13.61p in dividends. They were sold last week at 112.15p, having made a return of 58.8%. The prompt to look for portfolio constituents to sell was the recession threat.  TClarke was selected because it is a cyclically company, and […]

I’ve sold my “A” non-voting Dewhurst (DWHA) shares for £7.22, not because I judged it to be over-valued but because I wanted to rebalance my portfolio so as to have more cash available for post-Covid purchases. Dewhurst A’s were selected to be turned into cash because they were trading close to intrinsic value, not because […]

In these febrile times I thought it worthwhile to post a newsletter I first sent out in November. Warren Buffett has some wise words concerning the value investor’s attitude to falling share prices.  Truly disciplined value investors celebrate when shares fall in price.  I’m currently writing the first chapter of third volume of The Deals of […]